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Spatial Interaction and the Statistical Analysis of Lattice Systems

CHAPTER 7 – Analysis of Epidemics

There have been outstanding advances recently in work on the structure and replica­ tion of plant viruses, but studies on their spread and control have been relatively neglected, and progress has been limited. Nevertheless, there is an increasing aware­ ness of the prevalence of virus diseases in diverse crops of many countries. Cacao swollen shoot, cotton leaf curl, hop nettlehead, and many other virus diseases have long caused serious losses, and these continue. Other viruses including plum pox, citrus tristeza, and sugar cane mosaic have increased in importance because of spread into new areas or crops. As a result of detailed surveys or the introduction of new tests, newly detected and in some instances widespread and prevalent viruses have been discovered in maize, rice, apple, and many other hosts. The well characterized plant viruses are of several distinct morphological types and there is great diversity in their mode of spread. Recent reviews are available on transmission and spread of viruses by pollen and seed (64) and by vectors (20, 52, 56), especially aphids (73, 90), leafhoppers (7, 92), white flies (27), thrips (62), beetles (87), mites (55), nematodes (17, 75), and fungi (76). This paper emphasizes general features in the epidemiology of plant viruses that lead to characteristic curves of disease progress with time. 1 Spatial patterns of infection into and within crops will be considered in a subsequent review.

Temporal Patterns of Virus Spread

One common type of epidemiological study is to compare disease-specific mortality rates in different areas. In evaluating the geographic association between mortality and other characteristics multiple regression techniques may be used. This paper presents one example concerning British geographic variation in cardiovascular mortality as an illustration of the methods and problems of statistical analysis and interpretation for such studies. In particular the relevance of weighted regression and spatial patterns is considered." The negative association between cardiovascular mortality and water hardness is explored. A series of comments is also included at the end of the paper (pp. 329-41). (EXCERPT)

Analysing Geographic Variation in Cardiovascular Mortality: Methods and Results

Section of Mathematics: STATISTICAL INFERENCE IN FINITE POPULATIONS HAVING STRUCTURE*

Spread of diseases in a rectangular plantation with vacancies

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Spread of diseases in a rectangular plantation with vacancies