Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the US economy using seven macro-economic time series. The model incorporates many types of real and nominal frictions and seven types of structural shocks. We show that this model is able to compete with Bayesian Vector Autoregression models in out-of-sample prediction. We investigate the relative empirical importance of the various frictions. Finally, using the estimated model we address a number of key issues in business cycle analysis: What are the sources of business cycle fluctuations? Can the model explain the cross-correlation between output and inflation? What are the effects of productivity on hours worked? What are the sources of the "Great Moderation"?

/pdf/shocks-and-frictions-in-us-business-cycles-a-bayesian-dsge-d1f6ynd58q.pdf

Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach

The ability of a two-sector model to quantify the contribution of the housing market to business fluctuations is investigated using U.S. data and Bayesian methods. The estimated model, which contains nominal and real rigidities and collateral constraints, displays the following features: first, a large fraction of the upward trend in real housing prices over the last 40 years can be accounted for by slow technological progress in the housing sector; second, residential investment and housing prices are very sensitive to monetary policy and housing demand shocks; third, the wealth effects from housing on consumption are positive and significant, and have become more important over time. The structural nature of the model allows identifying and quantifying the sources of fluctuations in house prices and residential investment and measuring the contribution of housing booms and busts to business cycles.

/pdf/housing-market-spillovers-evidence-from-an-estimated-dsge-cw32z51gvs.pdf

Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model

We study sources and consequences of fluctuations in the US housing market. Slow technological progress in the housing sector explains the upward trend in real housing prices of the last 40 years. Over the business cycle, housing demand and housing technology shocks explain one-quarter each of the volatility of housing investment and housing prices. Monetary factors explain less than 20 percent, but have played a bigger role in the housing cycle at the turn of the century. We show that the housing market spillovers are nonnegligible, concentrated on consumption rather than business investment, and have become more important over time.

/pdf/housing-market-spillovers-evidence-from-an-estimated-dsge-22bvzeh9sh.pdf

Housing market spillovers : evidence from an estimated DSGE model

This paper estimates a DSGE model with many types of shocks and frictions for both the US and the euro area economy over a common sample period (1974-2002). The structural estimation methodology allows us to investigate whether differences in business cycle behaviour are due to differences in the type of shocks that affect the two economies, differences in the propagation mechanism of those shocks or differences in the way the central bank responds to those economic developments. Our main conclusion is that each of those characteristics is remarkably similar across both currency areas.

Comparing Shocks and Frictions in US and Euro Area Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach. NBB Working Paper Nr. 61, October 2004

We develop a dynamic multi-country general equilibrium model to investigate forces acting on the global economy during the Great Recession and ensuing recovery. Our multi-sector framework accounts completely for countries' trade, investment, production, and GDPs in terms of different sets of shocks. Applying the model to 21 countries, we investigate the 29 percent drop in world trade in manufactures during 2008-2009. A shift in final spending away from tradable sectors, largely caused by declines in durables investment efficiency, account for most of the collapse in trade relative to GDP. Shocks to trade frictions, productivity, and demand play minor roles.

/pdf/trade-and-the-global-recession-54uk7l7hvb.pdf

Trade and the Global Recession

The Port Autonome de Liege, with its 26 kilometres of berths and several multimodal platforms, plays an important role in the Walloon and Belgian economy. This update paper gives an extensive overview of the economic importance and the latest developments of the Port Autonome de Liege, through revised results for the period 1997 - 2003. Focusing on the three major variables of value added, employment and investment, it also provides some information about the financial situation of a few vital sectors. An indication concerning the financial health of the companies studied is also provided, using the National Bank's bankruptcy prediction model. In addition, it includes figures of several cargo traffics and draws a picture of social developments in the Port Autonome de Liege. Annual accounts data from the Central Balance Sheet Office were used for the calculation of direct effects, the study of financial ratios and the analysis of the social balance sheet. The indirect effects of these port activities are estimated in terms of value added (VA) and employment, on the basis of data from the National Accounts Institute. In the Liege harbour's network, direct VA came to 1 billion euro and total VA - the sum of direct and indirect VA - to 2 billion euro in 2003. In the same year direct and total employment respectively attained 12,400 and 28,500 fulltime equivalents, while investment directly linked with the port fell to 121 million euro. The position of the Port Autonome de Liege as the second largest inland port in Europe is threatened by the planned closure of the Cockerill Sambre's blast furnaces. This will take place gradually but will be completed by 2009. 2,700 direct and 4,500 indirect jobs are concerned, as well as 8 million tonnes of transhipment. However new spaces will be opened up, which means that new businesses will be created in the port area. New development sites are under construction and will soon be operative. An overall restructuring of the Liege harbour's network is under way and constitutes the main challenge for the Port Autonome de Liege's authorities in the next five years. In spite of this climate of uncertainty, the Port Autonome de Liege is striving to establish itself as a major logistic centre in the region, able to add value to the goods passing through it, in order to withstand the climate of increasing regional and international competition.

Importance économique du Port Autonome de Liège: rapport 2003

This paper is an annual publication prepared by the Microeconomic Analysis unit of the National Bank of Belgium. The Flemish maritime ports -Antwerp, Ghent, Ostend, Zeebrugge- and the Autonomous Port of Liege play a major role in their respective regional economies and in the Belgian economy, not only in terms of the industries they encompass but also as intermodal centres where transhipment and industrial activities are concentrated. This update1 paper provides for the first time an extensive overview of the economic importance and development of the Flemish maritime ports together with the Liege port complex in 2004. The results for the rest of the period 1999 - 2003 have also been updated. Focusing on the three major variables of value added, employment and investment, the report also provides some information about the financial situation of several vital sectors in each port. A global indication concerning the financial health of the companies studied is also provided, using the NBB bankruptcy prediction model. In addition, it includes figures with respect to the ongoing growth of several cargo traffic segments and provides an overall picture of socio-economic developments in the ports. Annual accounts data from the Central Balance Sheet Office were used for the calculation of direct effects, the study of financial ratios and the analysis of the social balance sheet. The indirect effects of the activities concerned were estimated in terms of value added and employment, on the basis of data from the National Accounts Institute. 2004 was an excellent year for the Flemish maritime ports as a whole, in terms of the quantity of handled cargo and the value added produced. But the employment situation was more mixed, and private investment dropped. The ongoing developments in the maritime ports sector and in the world economy are having a dramatic impact on the operations of the Flemish ports, which have to deal with the global trend of increasing international competition, expansion and dispersion of foreign trade, capital concentration, privatisation and vertical integration of port logistic services, increase in containerised shipments, and so forth. At the same time, as major logistic centres, they have to face a dual challenge: increasing demand in terms of capacity, and the necessity to add climate of increasing regional and international competition, not only within the Hamburg - Le Havre range but also from Asian markets. The port of Liege, still the second largest inland port in Europe, is striving to turn a threat into an opportunity. Although the Cockerill Sambre blast furnaces are being closed, that is creating new space and the overall Liege port complex is being restructured. In spite of this climate of uncertainty, the main goal of the Autonomous Port of Liege is to establish itself as a major logistic centre in the region, able to attract new businesses. In the meantime, the short-term impact on employment is negative, as direct employment decreased substantially in 2004, whereas value added and investment made up for the ground lost in 2003. The present report tackles all these issues by giving details per economic sector.

Economic Importance of the Belgian Ports: Flemish Maritime Ports and Liège Port Complex - Report 2004

This paper is an annual publication issued by the Microeconomic Analysis service of the National Bank of Belgium. The Flemish maritime ports - Antwerp, Ghent, Ostend, Zeebrugge - and the Autonomous Port of Liège play a major role in their respective regional economies and in the Belgian economy, not only in terms of industrial activity but also as intermodal centres facilitating the commodity flow. This update paper provides an extensive overview of the economic importance and development of the Flemish maritime ports and the Liège port complex in the period 2000 - 2005, with an emphasis on 2005. Focusing on the three major variables of value added, employment and investment, the report also provides some information about the financial situation in each port. A global indication concerning the financial health of the companies studied is also provided. These observations are linked to a more general context, along with a few cargo statistics. Annual accounts data from the Central Balance Sheet Office were used for the calculation of direct effects, the study of financial ratios and the analysis of the social balance sheet. The indirect effects of the activities concerned were estimated in terms of value added and employment, on the basis of data from the National Accounts Institute. 2005 was a year of steady growth for most Flemish maritime ports, in terms of quantity of cargo handled and value added, although there was a slight deceleration in comparison to the previous year. The employment situation was, by contrast, somewhat mixed, while investment soared, far exceeding the pace recorded since 2000. The current changes in world trade patterns are having a substantial impact on the operations of the Flemish and Liège ports, situated at the heart of one of the wealthiest and busiest trading regions of the world. To cope with the accelerating internationalisation of port competition and the tremendous growth of containerised seaborne transport, the ports concerned need to constantly adapt their infrastructures, through innovation and investment. As major logistic centres, they have to face the challenge of responding to increasing demand in terms of capacity, while adding as much value as possible to the goods passing through them. Accessibility and seamless connections with the hinterland are key to their success and durability. This has become absolutely vital in a climate of growing regional and international competition, accentuated by the booming Asian economies. The port of Liège is striving to turn a threat into an opportunity. In the wake of the Cockerill Sambre blast furnace closure, the Liège port complex is undergoing a major restructuring. Cargo figures were down sharply in 2005, while the economic situation of the area was dominated by stagnation or decline in terms of value added, employment and investment. However, this fall could be shortlived since the revival expected from the development of value-added logistics will also generate increased activity, traffic and demand for manpower. The present report provides a comprehensive account of these issues, giving details per economic sector, though the comments are confined to the main changes that occurred in 2005.

/pdf/economic-importance-of-the-belgian-ports-flemish-maritime-4gsmi9wjjn.pdf

Economic importance of the Belgian ports : Flemish maritime ports and Liège port complex - report 2005

This paper provides an extensive overview of the economic importance and development of the Flemish maritime ports, over the period 1995 - 2002. Focusing on the three major variables of value added, employment and investment, it also provides some information about the financial situation of a few vital segments in each port. In addition, it includes figures with respect to the ongoing growth of several cargo traffic segments and attempts to establish a link between these and the progress of the production in the industries at stake. The breakthrough of this research - compared to its previous editions - consists of evaluating the indirect effects of the sectors in question in terms of value added and employment. A few refinements have also been made, such as the routine geographical and functional selection of companies according to the cluster they belong to (NACE-Bel code pproach), the limitation of administrative work incurred, the review of the companysize nalysis, etc. Annual reports data from the Central Balance Sheet have been computed for the calculation of direct effects, the study of financial ratios and the analysis of the social balance sheet. For the estimation of indirect effects, Supply and Use Tables from the National Accounts Institute have been resorted to. The developments in the maritime ports sector are numerous nowadays, namely in the Hamburg - Le Havre range: concentration of capital, privatization of ports logistics services, expansion and dispersion of foreign trade, the internationalization of the production and consumption patterns (e.g. increase in containerized shipments), the latest requirements of world trade concerning transport and distribution. The increase in scale and specialization of the vessels inevitably impact on the operation of the ports. Production, trade and transport are not longer considered as individual, isolated activities, but are integrated in a single system. Therefore, ports have to evolve from mere centres of transport (discharging and loading of vessels) to logistics centres. Moreover, ports able to add value to the goods passing through the port area, have a major asset in a climate of increasing international competition. These developments are also mentioned in this report, since no Flemish port is an exception to this rule.

/pdf/economic-importance-of-the-flemish-maritime-ports-report-3ijmh1e0qa.pdf

Economic Importance of the Flemish Maritime Ports - Report 2002

The Flemish maritime ports play a major role in the Belgian economy, not only in terms of the industries they encompass but also as intermodal centres where transhipment activities are concentrated. This update1 paper provides an extensive overview of the economic importance and development of the Flemish maritime ports, through revised results for the period 1997 - 2003. Focusing on the three major variables of value added, employment and investment, it also provides some information about the financial situation of a few vital sectors in each port. A global indication concerning the financial health of the companies studied is also provided, using the NBB bankruptcy prediction model. In addition, it includes figures with respect to the ongoing growth of several cargo traffic segments and provides an overall picture of social developments in the Flemish maritime ports. The indirect effects of these port activities are estimated in terms of value added and employment. Annual account data from the Central Balance Sheet Office were used for the calculation of direct effects, the study of financial ratios and the analysis of the social balance sheet. The indirect effects were estimated on the basis of data from the National Accounts Institute. In the Flemish maritime ports, direct VA came to almost 11.5 billion euro and total VA - the sum of direct and indirect VA - to 22 billion euro in 2003. In the same year direct and total employment reached respectively 105,000 and 239,000 full-time equivalents, while direct investment reached 2.5 billion euro. The ongoing developments in the maritime ports sector in the Hamburg - Le Havre range continue to affect the port operations: concentration of capital, privatisation of port logistic services, expansion and dispersion of foreign trade, internationalisation of production and consumption patterns, increase in containerised shipments, etc. Production, trade and transport are no longer considered as individual and isolated activities, but are integrated within a single system, while economies of scale continue. Therefore, ports are becoming real logistic centres: ports able to add value to the goods passing through the port area have a major advantage in a climate of increasing international competition. Flemish ports are following this trend, and that is also reflected in the analysis presented in this report.

/pdf/economic-importance-of-the-flemish-maritime-ports-report-1kogwp78al.pdf

Economic Importance of the Flemish Maritime Ports - Report 2003

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