Blue carbon provides opportunities to mitigate climate change while increasing ecosystem services for coastal communities, including climate change adaptation; however, blue carbon ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change, leading to uncertainties in the future efficacy of these ecosystems. In this review, we assess the potential impacts of climate change on blue carbon. Despite uncertainties, carbon sequestration in coastal ecosystems is enhanced by landward migration of blue carbon habitats, maintenance of sediment supply, restoration, and improved water quality. As an example, landward migration of mangroves could result in carbon sequestration of 1.5 Pg by 2100. Mudflats, seaweed beds, and coastal swamp forests could also contribute to climate change mitigation, although there are large data gaps. Achieving the full potential of blue carbon requires protection and restoration of ecosystems and facilitation of changes in ecosystem distributions with climate change, actions that will also deliver adaptation benefits. Conversely, in the worst-case coastal squeeze scenario, losses of 3.4 Pg of sequestered carbon by 2100 could occur.

Variable impacts of climate change on blue carbon

The potential for Blue Carbon ecosystems to combat climate change and provide co-benefits was discussed in the recent and influential Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. In terms of Blue Carbon, the report mainly focused on coastal wetlands and did not address the socio-economic considerations of using natural ocean systems to reduce the risks of climate disruption. In this paper, we discuss Blue Carbon resources in coastal, open-ocean and deep-sea ecosystems and highlight the benefits of measures such as restoration and creation as well as conservation and protection in helping to unleash their potential for mitigating climate change risks. We also highlight the challenges—such as valuation and governance—to marshalling their mitigation role and discuss the need for policy action for natural capital market development, and for global coordination. Efforts to identify and resolve these challenges could both maintain and harness the potential for these natural ocean systems to store carbon and help fight climate change. Conserving, protecting, and restoring Blue Carbon ecosystems should become an integral part of mitigation and carbon stock conservation plans at the local, national and global levels.

/pdf/the-role-of-blue-carbon-in-climate-change-mitigation-and-mmxt8xmshq.pdf

The Role of Blue Carbon in Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Stock Conservation

Knowledge of life on the Southern Ocean seafloor has substantially grown since the beginning of this century with increasing ship-based surveys and regular monitoring sites, new technologies and greatly enhanced data sharing. However, seafloor habitats and their communities exhibit high spatial variability and heterogeneity that challenges the way in which we assess the state of the Southern Ocean benthos on larger scales. The Antarctic shelf is rich in diversity compared with deeper water areas, important for storing carbon (“blue carbon”) and provides habitat for commercial fish species. In this paper, we focus on the seafloor habitats of the Antarctic shelf, which are vulnerable to drivers of change including increasing ocean temperatures, iceberg scour, sea ice melt, ocean acidification, fishing pressures, pollution and non-indigenous species. Some of the most vulnerable areas include the West Antarctic Peninsula, which is experiencing rapid regional warming and increased iceberg-scouring, subantarctic islands and tourist destinations where human activities and environmental conditions increase the potential for the establishment of non-indigenous species and active fishing areas around South Georgia, Heard and MacDonald Islands. Vulnerable species include those in areas of regional warming with low thermal tolerance, calcifying species susceptible to increasing ocean acidity as well as slow-growing habitat-forming species that can be damaged by fishing gears e.g., sponges, bryozoan, and coral species. Management regimes can protect seafloor habitats and key species from fishing activities; some areas will need more protection than others, accounting for specific traits that make species vulnerable, slow growing and long-lived species, restricted locations with optimum physiological conditions and available food, and restricted distributions of rare species. Ecosystem-based management practices and long-term, highly protected areas may be the most effective tools in the preservation of vulnerable seafloor habitats. Here, we focus on outlining seafloor responses to drivers of change observed to date and projections for the future. We discuss the need for action to preserve seafloor habitats under climate change, fishing pressures and other anthropogenic impacts.

/pdf/responses-of-southern-ocean-seafloor-habitats-and-3j4wfdanrg.pdf

Responses of Southern Ocean seafloor habitats and communities to global and local drivers of change

Rising atmospheric CO2 is intensifying climate change but it is also driving global and particularly polar greening. However, most blue carbon sinks (that held by marine organisms) are shrinking, which is important as these are hotspots of genuine carbon sequestration. Polar blue carbon increases with losses of marine ice over high latitude continental shelf areas. Marine ice (sea ice, ice shelf and glacier retreat) losses generate a valuable negative feedback on climate change. Blue carbon change with sea ice and ice shelf losses has been estimated, but not how blue carbon responds to glacier retreat along fjords. We derive a testable estimate of glacier retreat driven blue carbon gains by investigating three fjords in the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). We started by multiplying ~40 year mean glacier retreat rates by the number of retreating WAP fjords and their time of exposure. We multiplied this area by regional zoobenthic carbon means from existing datasets to suggest that WAP fjords generate 3,130 tonnes of new zoobenthic carbon per year (t zC/year) and sequester >780 t zC/year. We tested this by capture and analysis of 204 high resolution seabed images along emerging WAP fjords. Biota within these images were identified to density per 13 functional groups. Mean stored carbon per individual was assigned from literature values to give a stored zoobenthic Carbon per area, which was multiplied up by area of fjord exposed over time, which increased the estimate to 4,536 t zC/year. The purpose of this study was to establish a testable estimate of blue carbon change caused by glacier retreat along Antarctic fjords and thus to establish its relative importance compared to polar and other carbon sinks.

/pdf/blue-carbon-gains-from-glacial-retreat-along-antarctic-3cmydlu41q.pdf

Blue carbon gains from glacial retreat along Antarctic fjords: What should we expect?

Global warming is causing significant losses of marine ice around the polar regions. In Antarctica, the retreat of tidewater glaciers is opening up novel, low-energy habitats (fjords) that have the potential to provide a negative feedback loop to climate change. These fjords are being colonized by organisms on and within the sediment and act as a sink for particulate matter. So far, blue carbon potential in Antarctic habitats has mainly been estimated using epifaunal megazoobenthos (although some studies have also considered macrozoobenthos). We investigated two further pathways of carbon storage and potential sequestration by measuring the concentration of carbon of infaunal macrozoobenthos and total organic carbon (TOC) deposited in the sediment. We took samples along a temporal gradient since time of last glacier ice cover (1-1000 years) at three fjords along the West Antarctic Peninsula. We tested the hypothesis that seabed carbon standing stock would be mainly driven by time since last glacier covered. However, results showed this to be much more complex. Infauna were highly variable over this temporal gradient and showed similar total mass of carbon standing stock per m2 as literature estimates of Antarctic epifauna. TOC mass in the sediment, however, was an order of magnitude greater than stocks of infaunal and epifaunal carbon and increased with time since last ice cover. Thus, blue carbon stocks and recent gains around Antarctica are likely much higher than previously estimated as is their negative feedback on climate change.

Quantification of blue carbon pathways contributing to negative feedback on climate change following glacier retreat in West Antarctic fjords.

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Blue carbon gains from glacial retreat along Antarctic fjords: What should we expect?