Harnessing AI and computing to advance climate modelling and prediction

Abstract. Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution of extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage and regionalised research efforts. This inaugural State of Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying extreme events from the March 2023–February 2024 fire season. We assess the causes, predictability, and attribution of these events to climate change and land use and forecast future risks under different climate scenarios. During the 2023–2024 fire season, 3.9×106 km2 burned globally, slightly below the average of previous seasons, but fire carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totalling 2.4 Pg C. Global fire C emissions were increased by record emissions in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times the average) and reduced by low emissions from African savannahs. Notable events included record-breaking fire extent and emissions in Canada, the largest recorded wildfire in the European Union (Greece), drought-driven fires in western Amazonia and northern parts of South America, and deadly fires in Hawaii (100 deaths) and Chile (131 deaths). Over 232 000 people were evacuated in Canada alone, highlighting the severity of human impact. Our analyses revealed that multiple drivers were needed to cause areas of extreme fire activity. In Canada and Greece, a combination of high fire weather and an abundance of dry fuels increased the probability of fires, whereas burned area anomalies were weaker in regions with lower fuel loads and higher direct suppression, particularly in Canada. Fire weather prediction in Canada showed a mild anomalous signal 1 to 2 months in advance, whereas events in Greece and Amazonia had shorter predictability horizons. Attribution analyses indicated that modelled anomalies in burned area were up to 40 %, 18 %, and 50 % higher due to climate change in Canada, Greece, and western Amazonia during the 2023–2024 fire season, respectively. Meanwhile, the probability of extreme fire seasons of these magnitudes has increased significantly due to anthropogenic climate change, with a 2.9–3.6-fold increase in likelihood of high fire weather in Canada and a 20.0–28.5-fold increase in Amazonia. By the end of the century, events of similar magnitude to 2023 in Canada are projected to occur 6.3–10.8 times more frequently under a medium–high emission scenario (SSP370). This report represents our first annual effort to catalogue extreme wildfire events, explain their occurrence, and predict future risks. By consolidating state-of-the-art wildfire science and delivering key insights relevant to policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, and land managers, we aim to enhance society's resilience to wildfires and promote advances in preparedness, mitigation, and adaptation. New datasets presented in this work are available from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11400539 (Jones et al., 2024) and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11420742 (Kelley et al., 2024a). 

State of Wildfires 2023–2024

Wildfires are a global crisis, but current fire models fail to capture vegetation response to changing climate. With drought and elevated temperature increasing the importance of vegetation dynamics to fire behavior, and the advent of next generation models capable of capturing increasingly complex physical processes, we provide a renewed focus on representation of woody vegetation in fire models. Currently, the most advanced representations of fire behavior and biophysical fire effects are found in distinct classes of fine-scale models and do not capture variation in live fuel (i.e., living plant) properties. We demonstrate that plant water and carbon dynamics, which influence combustion and heat transfer into the plant and often dictate plant survival, provide the mechanistic linkage between fire behavior and effects. Our conceptual framework linking remotely sensed estimates of plant water and carbon to fine scale models of fire behavior and effects could be a critical first step toward improving the fidelity of the coarse scale models that are now relied upon for global fire forecasting. This process-based approach will be essential to capturing the influence of physiological responses to drought and warming on live fuel conditions, strengthening the science needed to guide fire managers in an uncertain future.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/nph.18770

Integrating plant physiology into simulation of fire behavior and effects.

Fire is an integral part of the Earth System and humans have skillfully used fire for millennia. Yet human activities are scaling up and reinforcing each other in ways that are reshaping fire patterns across the planet. We review these changes using the concept of the fire regime, which describes the timing, location, and type of fires. We then explore the consequences of fire regime changes on the biological, chemical, and physical processes that sustain life on Earth. Anthropogenic drivers such as climate change, land use, and invasive species are shifting fire regimes and creating environments unlike any humanity has previously experienced. Although human exposure to extreme wildfire events is increasing, we highlight how knowledge of fire regimes can be mobilized to achieve a wide range of goals, from reducing carbon emissions to promoting biodiversity and human well-being. A fire regime perspective is critical to navigating toward a sustainable future—a better Anthropocene. 

Understanding Fire Regimes for a Better Anthropocene

Abstract Purpose Wildfire is one of the most important natural disturbances in forest and multi-vegetation ecosystems, directly or indirectly affecting the structural processes and functions of forest ecosystems with varying degrees. Wildfire releases vast amounts of carbon dioxide and other substances by destroying vegetation, making itself an important topic for the study of global change and environmental impacts. Therefore, a deeper understanding of this topic is particularly crucial for managing forest ecosystems. Methods This paper was based on a literature search of the Web of Science database for international forest wildfire research, utilizing bibliometric and quantity statistical analysis methods. Results The results show that forest wildfire research has been rapidly growing over the last 20 years, with the number of relevant articles generally increasing yearly at an average annual growth rate of about 22.45%. The US tops the list in terms of total and independent publications, with a total of 3111 articles (49.88%). The key journals publishing on this topic include 12 journals, Stephens S.L., Bergeron Y., and Lindenmayer D.B. are the key contributing authors to the field, and research institutions are primarily concentrated in the US Forest Service. Keyword co-occurrence analysis shows that current forest wildfire research is focused on seven main areas. This paper systematically reviewed the progress and hotspots of international forest wildfire research in recent decades, mainly focusing on occurrences, severity, management, and warning techniques for wildfires, as well as the impact of climate change and human activities on wildfires. Conclusions The study concludes that research trends in this field have undergone a significant evolution in recent decades. The future forest wildfire research moves towards a combination of typical mechanisms and large-scale effects across spatial and temporal scales, deep integration of aerospace and earth observations and precise simulations, discipline fusion, and couplings research. We believe that this study provides a comprehensive and systematic overview for future forest wildfire observation, prediction, management, and investigation of ecological effects. 

/pdf/advances-in-the-study-of-global-forest-wildfires-hzg8ah34.pdf

Advances in the study of global forest wildfires

Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are a fundamental cause and consequence of global change, impacting people and the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part of the newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change and radical changes to ecosystems, fire danger is increasing, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Increasing fire danger is a vexing problem that requires deep transdisciplinary, trans-sector, and inclusive partnerships to address. Here, we outline barriers and opportunities in the next generation of fire science and provide guidance for investment in future research. We synthesize insights needed to better address the long-standing challenges of innovation across disciplines to (i) promote coordinated research efforts; (ii) embrace different ways of knowing and knowledge generation; (iii) promote exploration of fundamental science; (iv) capitalize on the "firehose" of data for societal benefit; and (v) integrate human and natural systems into models across multiple scales. Fire science is thus at a critical transitional moment. We need to shift from observation and modeled representations of varying components of climate, people, vegetation, and fire to more integrative and predictive approaches that support pathways toward mitigating and adapting to our increasingly flammable world, including the utilization of fire for human safety and benefit. Only through overcoming institutional silos and accessing knowledge across diverse communities can we effectively undertake research that improves outcomes in our more fiery future.

https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1263&context=geog_fac

Reimagine fire science for the anthropocene.

Manganese (Mn) is an essential plant micronutrient that plays a critical role in the litter decomposition by oxidizing and degrading complex organic molecules. Previous studies report a negative correlation between Mn concentrations and carbon (C) storage in organic horizons and suggest that high Mn concentrations in leaf litter reduce soil C storage in forest ecosystems, presumably by stimulating the oxidation of lignin by fungal enzymes. Yet, the relationship between Mn and C in the litter layer and organic soil remains poorly understood and restricted to a few biomes, hampering our ability to improve mechanistic understanding of soil C accumulation. To examine plant‐soil interactions that underlie observed relationships between Mn and C across a wide range of biomes, we extracted biogeochemical data reported for plants and soils from the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) database. We found that increased C and nitrogen (N) storage in organic horizons were associated with declines in Mn concentrations across diverse ecosystems at the continental scale, and this relationship was associated with the degree of organic matter decomposition (i.e., Oi, Oe, and Oa). Carbon and N stocks were more strongly correlated with Mn than with climatic variables (i.e., temperature and precipitation). Foliar Mn was strongly correlated with foliar lignin, and both these parameters increased with a decrease in soil pH, indicating links between soil pH, foliar chemistry, and litter decomposability. Our observations suggest that increased Mn bioavailability and accumulation in foliage under moderately acidic soil conditions support fungal decomposition of lignin‐rich litter and contributes to lower soil C stocks.

Plant‐Soil Relationships Influence Observed Trends Between Manganese and Carbon Across Biomes

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Reimagine fire science for the anthropocene.

Plant‐Soil Relationships Influence Observed Trends Between Manganese and Carbon Across Biomes