By extending our previously established model, here we present a new model called "PHITS-based Analytical Radiation Model in the Atmosphere (PARMA) version 3.0," which can instantaneously estimate terrestrial cosmic ray fluxes of neutrons, protons, ions with charge up to 28 (Ni), muons, electrons, positrons, and photons nearly anytime and anywhere in the Earth's atmosphere. The model comprises numerous analytical functions with parameters whose numerical values were fitted to reproduce the results of the extensive air shower (EAS) simulation performed by Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System (PHITS). The accuracy of the EAS simulation was well verified using various experimental data, while that of PARMA3.0 was confirmed by the high R2 values of the fit. The models to be used for estimating radiation doses due to cosmic ray exposure, cosmic ray induced ionization rates, and count rates of neutron monitors were validated by investigating their capability to reproduce those quantities measured under various conditions. PARMA3.0 is available freely and is easy to use, as implemented in an open-access software program EXcel-based Program for Calculating Atmospheric Cosmic ray Spectrum (EXPACS). Because of these features, the new version of PARMA/EXPACS can be an important tool in various research fields such as geosciences, cosmic ray physics, and radiation research.

/pdf/analytical-model-for-estimating-terrestrial-cosmic-ray-xklicd979k.pdf

Analytical Model for Estimating Terrestrial Cosmic Ray Fluxes Nearly Anytime and Anywhere in the World: Extension of PARMA/EXPACS.

Aims : This paper presents a H2020 project aimed at developing an advanced space weather forecasting tool, combining the MagnetoHydroDynamic (MHD) solar wind and coronal mass ejection (CME) evolution modelling with solar energetic particle (SEP) transport and acceleration model(s). The EUHFORIA 2.0 project will address the geoeffectiveness of impacts and mitigation to avoid (part of the) damage, including that of extreme events, related to solar eruptions, solar wind streams, and SEPs, with particular emphasis on its application to forecast geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and radiation on geospace. Methods : We will apply innovative methods and state-of-the-art numerical techniques to extend the recent heliospheric solar wind and CME propagation model EUHFORIA with two integrated key facilities that are crucial for improving its predictive power and reliability, namely (1) data-driven flux-rope CME models, and (2) physics-based, self-consistent SEP models for the acceleration and transport of particles along and across the magnetic field lines. This involves the novel coupling of advanced space weather models. In addition, after validating the upgraded EUHFORIA/SEP model, it will be coupled to existing models for GICs and atmospheric radiation transport models. This will result in a reliable prediction tool for radiation hazards from SEP events, affecting astronauts, passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft, and the impact of space weather events on power grid infrastructure, telecommunication, and navigation satellites. Finally, this innovative tool will be integrated into both the Virtual Space Weather Modeling Centre (VSWMC, ESA) and the space weather forecasting procedures at the ESA SSCC in Ukkel (Belgium), so that it will be available to the space weather community and effectively used for improved predictions and forecasts of the evolution of CME magnetic structures and their impact on Earth. Results : The results of the first six months of the EU H2020 project are presented here. These concern alternative coronal models, the application of adaptive mesh refinement techniques in the heliospheric part of EUHFORIA, alternative flux-rope CME models, evaluation of data-assimilation based on Karman filtering for the solar wind modelling, and a feasibility study of the integration of SEP models.

/pdf/european-heliospheric-forecasting-information-asset-2-0-gk5sbpzm8a.pdf

EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset 2.0

Space weather is an important driver of the exposure of aircrew and passengers to cosmic rays at flight altitudes, which has been a matter of concern for several decades. The assessment of the corresponding radiation doses can be realized by measurements or model calculations that cover the whole range of the radiation field in terms of geomagnetic shielding, atmospheric shielding, and the effects of space weather. Since the radiation field at aviation altitudes is very complex in terms of particle composition and energy distribution, the accurate experimental determination of doses at aviation altitudes is still a challenging task. Accordingly, the amount of data with comparatively small uncertainties is scarce. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center invited the Federal Aviation Administration, the German Aerospace Center, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to make their radiation models for aviation CARI‐7A, PANDOCA, and NAIRAS available for interested users via the Community Coordinated Modeling Center web site. A concomitant comparison of model calculations with measuring data provided information on the predicting capabilities and the uncertainties of the current versions of these models under quiet space weather conditions.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018SW001984

First Steps Toward the Verification of Models for the Assessment of the Radiation Exposure at Aviation Altitudes During Quiet Space Weather Conditions

The problem of finding a simple, generally applicable description of worldwide measured ambient dose equivalent rates at aviation altitudes between 8 and 12 km is difficult to solve due to the large variety of functional forms and parametrisations that are possible. We present an approach that uses Bayesian statistics and Monte Carlo methods to fit mathematical models to a large set of data and to compare the different models. About 2500 data points measured in the periods 1997-1999 and 2003-2006 were used. Since the data cover wide ranges of barometric altitude, vertical cut-off rigidity and phases in the solar cycle 23, we developed functions which depend on these three variables. Whereas the dependence on the vertical cut-off rigidity is described by an exponential, the dependences on barometric altitude and solar activity may be approximated by linear functions in the ranges under consideration. Therefore, a simple Taylor expansion was used to define different models and to investigate the relevance of the different expansion coefficients. With the method presented here, it is possible to obtain probability distributions for each expansion coefficient and thus to extract reliable uncertainties even for the dose rate evaluated. The resulting function agrees well with new measurements made at fixed geographic positions and during long haul flights covering a wide range of latitudes.

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0952-4746/30/3/006/pdf

The ambient dose equivalent at flight altitudes: a fit to a large set of data using a Bayesian approach

Investigation of using a long-life electronic personal dosimeter for monitoring aviation doses of frequent flyers

Intercomparisons of dosemeters used in radiation protection are performed routinely in reference radiation fields under well-defined conditions. In the case of the radiation protection of aircrew members, such reference fields either do not exist or they can be partially simulated by accelerator-based fields. Another method is to perform simultaneous measurements on board an aircraft under constant flight conditions, i.e. at defined latitude, longitude and altitude. The intercomparison presented in this work is the second one of its kind. As reference instruments, two types of tissue-equivalent proportional counters (TEPC) were used in comparison with different silicon detector systems. The excellent agreement of the FDOScalc code, which is based on measurements made by PTB during different phases of solar cycle 23 with the TEPC measurements and the results of the preceding project "Coordinated Access to Aircraft for Transnational Environmental Research" (CAATER) even allows the in-field calibration of the Si dosemeters.

Field calibration of dosemeters used for routine measurements at flight altitudes

The NAVIgation DOsimetry System (NAVIDOS) comprises a complete readout system for a radiation detec- tor, an air pressure sensor and a GPS receiver. The detector system DOSTEL uses silicon detectors which make NAVI- DOS light weighted and compact in size. Therefore, NAVI- DOS is well suited to be installed on board aircraft. The cal- ibration of NAVIDOS in terms of ambient dose equivalent is done by an in-field comparison with the PTB reference in- strument DOS. We also show that the dependence of these results on the vertical cut-off rigidity can be explained by the low response of the silicon detectors for neutrons. Therefore, in-flight measurements have been performed together with the PTB reference instrument DOS. The dose rates, cal- culated using the PTB code FDOScalc, were verified with these DOS measurements. The calibration of NAVIDOS was done with FDOScalc and results in calibration factors between 3.4 in the polar and 2.4 in the equator region.

/pdf/in-field-calibration-of-the-navigation-dosimetry-system-2odkqyn6cw.pdf

In-field calibration of the Navigation Dosimetry System (NAVIDOS) during solar minimum conditions

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Field calibration of dosemeters used for routine measurements at flight altitudes

In-field calibration of the Navigation Dosimetry System (NAVIDOS) during solar minimum conditions