This report proposes an analysis of the mutually reinforcing relationship between trade, investment and competition policies and how together they impact trade in developing countries An index of pro-competitive reforms is provided for 82 countries over the period 2001-2005 The index synthesises 13 indicators of the policy stance of countries with regard to trade, investment and competition It is then used in quantitative analysis to determine the impact of barriers to competitive markets on trade The results shows that there are substantial gains for developing countries in market and regulatory reforms in terms of higher trade flows and higher income per capita Moreover, the paper further examines pro-competitive reforms in key services sectors and the extent to which trade agreements can promote them through the experience of the WTO telecoms Reference Paper The analysis highlights that countries achieved a high degree of liberalisation in the telecoms sector and that regulatory principles of the Reference Paper were useful in promoting sound policies under domestic regulatory reforms of the sector

/pdf/the-impact-of-pro-competitive-reforms-on-trade-in-developing-1h65noshfh.pdf

The Impact of Pro-Competitive Reforms on Trade in Developing Countries

https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19863/1/mpra_paper_19863.pdf

Macroeconomic dynamics in Macedonia and Slovakia: Structural estimation and comparison

We evaluate the monetary determinants of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia by using the McCallum rule for money supply. The deviation of actual money growth from the rule is included in the estimation of Phillips curves for the four economies by Bayesian model averaging. We find that money provides information about price developments over a horizon of ten quarters ahead, albeit the estimates are in most cases rather imprecise. Moreover, the effect of excessive monetary growth on inflation is mixed: It is positive for Poland and Slovakia, but negative for the Czech Republic and Hungary. Nevertheless, these results suggest that money does provide information about future inflation and that a McCallum rule could potentially be used in the future as an additional indicator of the monetary policy stance once the precision of the estimation improves with more data available.

/pdf/evaluating-inflation-determinants-with-a-money-supply-rule-1ql3wau03v.pdf

Evaluating inflation determinants with a money supply rule in four Central and Eastern European EU member states

Surplus liquidity in the banking system changes the monetary transmission mechanism, reducing the effectiveness of the traditional instrument, the interest rate. In this paper we examine the real effects of several monetary-policy instruments in Macedonia, an economy characterized by surplus liquidity. We use regime-switching Vector Auto regressions and track the responses of different economic activity indicators to changes in the monetary policy instruments. Our findings suggest that the interest rate channel is weakly effective in Macedonia. The responses to the other instruments are not very sizeable, either, but are significant. This implies that monetary policy can affect economic activity through the reserve requirement and the offered amount of central bank bills. These findings have implications for both the analysis and the conduct of monetary policy in economies with surplus liquidity. Regarding analysis, the implication is that the traditional approach, which considers only the role of the interest rate, is likely to lead to wrong conclusions. Regarding conduct, the implication is that monetary authorities, besides on the price impact of the interest rate, should additionally rely on the reserve requirement and other available instruments producing volume impact.

/pdf/can-monetary-policy-affect-economic-activity-under-surplus-30turjfj08.pdf

Can Monetary Policy Affect Economic Activity under Surplus Liquidity? Some Evidence from Macedonia.

Survey Evidence on Capital Structure: Non-U.S. Evidence

This paper re-emphasizes the link from structural policies to enhanced macroeconomic stabilization using a small structural model estimated on quarterly data for Macedonia and Slovakia over 1995-2007. The success of macroeconomic stabilization, typically in the hands of monetary policy, is not only determined by a suitable choice of the nominal anchor, which shapes the reaction function of monetary policy, but also the constraints within which the monetary policy strives to achieve its objectives. The key attributes of the constraints to macroeconomic stabilization are economic rigidities and structural shocks. By benchmarking the estimated economic rigidities and structural shocks faced by Macedonia to those faced by Slovakia, the authors find that Macedonia has relatively weaker transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, higher output rigidity, and a lower exchange rate pass-through, and faces larger external shocks. For Macedonia, these relatively higher constraints on monetary policy together with the chosen exchange rate anchor result in greater output and inflation volatility relative to Slovakia. Hence, it appears that small, open economies with stronger economic rigidities should apply monetary policy regimes that allow for more flexible adjustments in external relative prices to enhance their macroeconomic stability.

/pdf/comparing-constraints-to-economic-stabilization-in-macedonia-3b7o9xskzu.pdf

Comparing Constraints to Economic Stabilization in Macedonia and Slovakia : Macro Estimates with Micro Narratives

Comparing Constraints to Economic Stabilization in Macedonia and Slovakia: Macro Estimates with Micro Narratives

After they achieved 2.2 percent growth in 2011, early indications are that the economies of the six countries in South East Europe (the SEE6: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia) are slowing drastically and can expect just 1.1 percent growth in 2012. Economic conditions in the Eurozone are holding back economic activity and depressing government revenues in SEE6 countries. With both public debt and financing pressures high, most countries in the region need to embark on major fiscal consolidation programs if they are to reverse their adverse debt dynamics and avoid financing problems down the road. The good news is that in general the SEE6 financial sectors are still relatively well placed, despite elevated risks and vulnerability to adverse shocks, especially the possibility of contagion if the Greek crisis should intensify. In SEE6, levels of non-performing loans (NPL), though high, seem at least to be stabilizing, capital buffers and provisioning look solid, and liquidity is adequate in most of the region. But given the significant risks in the Eurozone associated with the Greek crisis, it cannot be overemphasized that the authorities must continue to demand that banks build up their buffers to make the sector more resilient.The bad news is social: SEE6 countries have the highest unemployment and poverty rates in Europe. Moreover, what growth there was during the nascent recovery in 2010-11 was largely jobless. At about 23 percent, the average unemployment rate in SEE6 is more than twice the Western Europe average, and is highly concentrated among youth and long-term unemployed, with devastating impact on human capital. Pre-crisis poverty reduction gains are being reversed, and after large shocks and depleted household buffers and savings, the middle class has become more vulnerable. With growth prospects much more moderate than before the crisis and with social pressures high, it is urgent that SEE6 country governments adopt a more ambitious structural reform agenda for growth and jobs. Yet even with the difficult short-term situation, SEE6 countries now have historic opportunity to board the European “convergence train” and over the long term reduce their per capita income gap with developed European Union countries. All earlier entrants were able to “catch up quickly.” In principle, the same “convergence train” is now pulling into the EU candidate countries in SEE6; but these gains are not automatic, they will materialize only if country policies and reforms facilitate them. The long-term SEE6 structural reform agenda must leverage greater trade and financial integration and reform labor markets and the public sector.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2102535_code58432.pdf?abstractid=2102535

South East Europe Regular Economic Report (See Rer) No. 2

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Comparing Constraints to Economic Stabilization in Macedonia and Slovakia : Macro Estimates with Micro Narratives

Comparing Constraints to Economic Stabilization in Macedonia and Slovakia: Macro Estimates with Micro Narratives

South East Europe Regular Economic Report (See Rer) No. 2