Transitionaljustice mechanisms and the International Criminal Tribunal for the FormerYugoslavia (ICTY) have had only a limited success in overcoming ethnic divisionsin Bosnia-Herzegovina. Rather than elaborating upon the role of local politicalelites in perpetuating ethnic divisions, we examine ordinary peoples’ popularperceptions of war and its aftermath. In our view, the idea that elites havecomplete control over the broader narratives about the past is misplaced. Weargue that transitional justice and peace mechanisms supported by externalactors are always interpreted on the ground in context-specific ways, creatingdifferent citizens’ experiences, “memories” of the war, and their respectivehopes and disappointments in regards to the relationship between peace andjustice in Bosnia. We suggest that analyses of the post-conflict developments inBosnia-Herzegovina must take into account what gives the narratives ofexclusion their power, and what are the objective political, social andeconomic constraints that continue to provide a fertile ground for theirwidespread support.

/pdf/local-uses-of-international-criminal-justice-in-bosnia-26l9l4zsdh.pdf

Local Uses of International Criminal Justice in Bosnia-Herzegovina: Transcending Divisions or Building Parallel Worlds?

When the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (henceforth Macedonia) submitted its application to join the European Union in March 2004, it was seen as a courageous move for a country that had experienced an armed (and bloody) inter-ethnic conflict only a few years before. It also showed the determination of Macedonian political elite—at that time, a government coalition led by the SDSM, the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia—to move forward towards the objective of European Union (EU) accession without delay. For them, EU membership would guarantee political stability and security, as well as the best prospects for economic and social development for Macedonia and its citizens.

The Curious Case of Macedonia: A Personal Insight of a Former Head of the EU Delegation in Macedonia

The global economic crisis in the past five years has underlined the need for all countries to fundamentally review and strengthen their economic governance. Perhaps no other region in Europe is experiencing greater economic shocks than the Western Balkans, which continues to battle a decline in economic output and an increase in unemployment. In this article, we assess the macroeconomic outlook for the Western Balkan region, including Croatia, Serbia, Albania, Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, and Montenegro in the years 20122013. We use macroeconomic variables that compose economic macro-stabilization hexagon – the real growth rate of gross domestic product, the rate of inflation, the rate of unemployment, the public conventional deficit over GDP, the public debt over GDP, the current account deficit over GDP. Secondary analysis of previous quantitative data and published studies, combined with our own qualitative study in the field, has provided a reliable and convincing basis for analysis. Reducing the negative influence of the crisis on the economies and improving the economic situation of the populations in the respective countries is vital to popular support for, and the advance of, their European perspective. At the same time, despite the severe economic impact of the crisis on these countries, on their economies and the living standards of their populations, this study clearly shows and confirms the pro-European orientation of the Western Balkan countries. The paper considers different studies in view of economic development of the Western Balkan countries during the global economic crisis using statistical macroeconomic analysis. It is also based on the data for economic development of these countries provided by statistics from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook in April 2013 and in particular on recent reports of the European Commission for EU Candidate and Pre-Accession Countries presented in October 2012 and April 2013.

Macroeconomic Outlook for the Western Balkans in the Context of the Global Economic Crisis With a Focus on the Republic of Macedonia

The recent economic and financial crisis caused a severe blow to the fragile Macedonian economy, halting the positive development trends in the last decade. This, has in turn, intensified the future challenges. The paper intends to analyze the impact of global economic crisis on the Macedonian economy focuses mainly on the macroeconomic level, identifying and analyzing fluctuations of major macroeconomic indicators that reflect the development and macroeconomic balances of the economy, such as GDP, the level of employment, inflation, budget deficit, public debt, etc. Secondary analysis of previous quantitative data and published studies, combined with an own qualitative study in the field, has provided a reliable and convincing basis for analysis. The experiences and lessons taken from the global economic crisis should serve as a basis for changing the current economic model with a new one in order the economy of the country to catch a connection with the intense changes that are expected to occur in the coming period. It is expected that creating new economic model in Republic of Macedonia will result in multiple positive effects that primarily manifested in the increasing number of newly small and medium enterprises, domestic investments, industrial production, GDP, number of new employees and total exports as well as in reduction of the trade deficit in maintaining macroeconomic stability of the country.

/pdf/the-effects-of-the-global-economic-crisis-on-macedonian-106moao7ib.pdf

The Effects of the Global Economic Crisis on Macedonian Economy:Some Macroeconomic Indicators and Future Policy Recommendations

This note discusses the external environment, economic outlook, and key policy challenges for the six South East European Countries (SEE6) — Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), Kosovo, the former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) of Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia — as they seek to reignite economic recovery. After two years of fragile recovery from the global recession, as a group, SEE6 countries experienced a double-dip recession in 2012. Deteriorating external conditions, the impact of the severe winter on economic activity, and a continuing rise in unemployment early in the year took a toll on consumption, investments, and exports. The rise in unemployment continues to threaten the social fabric. Credit recovery and fiscal consolidation are under threat. Nonperforming loans (NPLs) — thought to be stabilizing only a few months ago — are again on the rise. As a result, both within and outside the region, the environment has become much more difficult to navigate, and the policy trade-offs necessary to stabilize economies and reignite growth have become more difficult to make. To overcome these challenges, SEE6 countries need more intensive policy reform to reduce public debt and accelerate structural reforms, especially in fiscal consolidation and the financial sector, labor markets, and business environment. Additional external financing from international financial institutions (IFIs) for growth and jobs could prove effective, but only if accompanied by intensified fiscal and structural reforms.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2343736_code58432.pdf?abstractid=2343736&type=2

South East Europe Six: From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reforms

After two years of fragile recovery from the global recession, as a group the six South East European countries (SEE6) – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia – are experiencing a double-dip recession in 2012 Deteriorating external conditions, the impact of the severe winter on economic activity, and a continuing rise in unemployment early in the year took a toll on consumption, investments, and exports The risks noted in the June report have materialized Credit recovery and fiscal consolidation are under threat Nonperforming loans (NPLs) – thought to be stabilizing only a few months ago – are again on the rise As a result, both within and outside the region the environment has become much more difficult to navigate, and the policy trade-offs necessary to stabilize economies and reignite growth are tougher After growing by about 2 percent annually in 2010-11, the combined real GDP of SEE6 will shrink -06 percent in 2012, with real output in Serbia declining by as much as 2 percent Also, it is now clear that even in the best of circumstances, the road to sustained recovery will be arduous: growth in 2013 is now expected to average 16 percent and the risks may be formidable Among the clouds on the horizon for 2013 are the global impact of the US “fiscal cliff,” the uncertain recovery of the Eurozone, and high commodity prices – risks to which all the SEE6 countries are highly vulnerable Also worrisome for its households is the risk of a new food price shock, which could exacerbate poverty and put pressure on the middle class In this fragile environment, Serbia, Albania, and Montenegro in particular will need to persevere in reducing fiscal deficits and bringing down debt, even as they must continue to improve the investment climate and reform labor markets and the public sector In all SEE6 countries, public sector arrears pose special challenges to fiscal management and the private sector, and there are unfinished, structural reforms agendas After two years of deep crisis, a sluggish recovery, rising unemployment and poverty, and a continuing recession – even with the best efforts on fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, which must continue – there is a danger that SEE6 countries are caught in a vicious circle that reinforces the cycle of long-term austerity, low if not negative growth, high debt, and even higher risks of social upheaval To prevent this outcome, this report argues, SEE6 governments need to redouble their efforts to accelerate fiscal and structural reforms These countries have largely exhausted their fiscal space and reduced public investment (except Kosovo, an outlier) to a fraction of what is needed to maintain public capital stock in critical infrastructure Private investment is suppressed by the lack of productive, complementary public investments, slow credit recovery, and depressed domestic demand External demand is minimal, and exports are not only too few, they are prevented from becoming an immediate, new engine of growth by infrastructure, finance, and other deficiencies What is needed first and foremost, this report argues, is more intensive policy reform to reduce public debt and accelerate structural reforms, especially in public sector governance, the investment climate, and labor markets Given their vulnerabilities, the SEE6 countries could also better prepare for new food price shocks If such accelerated reforms materialize, external support – well-coordinated and targeting the region as a whole, not just individual countries – from the EU and global international financial institutions (IFIs) could help ease the transition to a more sustained growth in medium term In November 2012, the European Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the World Bank announced €30 billion in financing for Central and South East European countries over the next two years In SEE6 countries, this timely initiative would likely be delivered via the Western Balkans Investment Framework (WBIF) and other IFI resources IPA resources will also be important, especially in supporting institutional reform and rural development By focusing on major infrastructure of regional significance (rail, highways, energy, and gas) and on jobs and small and medium enterprises, the efficiency of investments, growth, and employment could be substantially heightened However, additional financing for growth and jobs could prove effective only if accompanied by intensified fiscal and structural reforms, especially in the areas of investment climate, labor markets, and governance

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2193937_code58432.pdf?abstractid=2193937

South East Europe Regular Economic Report No. 3: From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reform

After the double-dip recession, as a group the six South East European countries (SEE6) –– Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia –– are now making a fragile recovery. Last year the recession in the Euro-zone had adverse impact on external demand and foreign direct investment (FDI) in SEE6 and the severe winter and a summer drought crippled agriculture and affected trade, energy, and economic activity overall. Now, output is beginning to bounce back. Exports are recovering in Serbia, the largest SEE6 economy; weather conditions are much improved; and in some countries dynamism is revving up in electricity, tourism, and related sectors. However, the recovery in SEE6 is still tentative. In some countries nonperforming loans, sluggish credit recovery, continued de-leveraging, and fiscal consolidation are exerting a drag — and recovery in SEE6 is unlikely to accelerate as long as the Euro-zone remains in recession. Although global economic and financial conditions have continued to improve, the Euro-zone is expected to be in recession in 2013 (at -0.6 percent growth). Global GDP is now projected to expand by 2.2 percent in 2013, 3.0 percent in 2014, and 3.3 percent in 2015. While growth in high-income countries will be a feeble 1.2 percent in 2013 (slowly rising to 2.0 in 2014 and 2.3 percent in 2015), growth in low- and middle-income countries will be 5.1 percent in 2013, accelerating slowly to 5.6 percent in 2014, and 5.7 percent in 2015. Gross capital flows to low- and middle-income countries are 60 percent higher than what they were a year ago — pointing to an end to the most serious effects of Euro-zone de-leveraging on those countries, including the SEE6 economies. Within this context, the SEE6 region is projected to grow 1.7 percent in 2013, signaling the end of the 2012 double-dip recession. Even though growth will in general be fragile, it will be on the upswing in all six countries. Kosovo again is expected to have the highest growth (3.1 percent), thanks to major public investments and a significant inflow of remittances. Next in the growth line is Serbia, at a projected 2 percent, in part reflecting the base effect from last year’s recession. Since Serbia accounts for 45 percent of the region’s economy, growth there is crucial to the region’s performance. Serbia is expected to benefit from increased FDI, solid performance from FIAT, and a return to normal agricultural output, which dropped nearly 20 percent in 2012; and as investors become more confident based on possible opening of EU accession negotiations later in the year, more FDI can be expected. Albania is projected to grow at about 1.8 percent, as it did last year, supported by a steady export performance. FYR Macedonia’s economic growth is expected to be moderate and will come mostly from FDI exports and public investments. Modest growth is expected in Montenegro partly because electricity and agriculture are recovering but mainly because tourism is surging ahead. In Bosnia and Herzegovina growth is likely to be tepid this year; the projection is just 0.5 percent. Unfortunately, numerous issues related to the BIH business environment will continue to constrain FDI flows there, as well as the prospects for expansion of domestic businesses. Against the backdrop of this tentative and fragile recovery, SEE6 countries should, as argued in the last report, intensify their efforts to reform structural areas. Fiscal consolidation efforts should become easier now that the output and revenue outlook is improving. The investment climate needs to be improved substantially, especially in the main areas of weaknesses: construction permits and licenses, barriers to entrepreneurship, and skills and infrastructure. Its neighbors could learn from FYR Macedonia, which continues to have the most favorable investment climate in the region as measured by the Doing Business indicators. One of the main worries in this nascent recovery is that SEE6 economies are plagued by high unemployment, especially youth unemployment, and they are not creating jobs fast enough to absorb new entrants into the labor force. In fact, the jobs situation is worse than the dismal unemployment figures suggest because so many leave the region to work elsewhere. In part, this is the legacy of periods when some SEE6 countries suffered significantly from regional dislocations that delayed reforms. Emigration continues as the current environment for doing business exacerbates the difficult labor market conditions. What SEE6 countries now need to do is to sustain the fragile recovery and push for job creation. This will require aggressive job-oriented policies. Recent World Bank research on jobs in low- and middle-income countries in Europe and Central Asia suggests that the policy agenda for job creation would best be targeted to four areas: fostering entrepreneurship, improving skills, managing internal and international mobility, and reducing institutional disincentives to job creation. Accelerating reforms in these areas is imperative if there is to be hope for more, better, and more diverse jobs in SEE6 countries.

South East Europe Regular Economic Report No. 4: From Double Dip Recession to Fragile Recovery

After they achieved 2.2 percent growth in 2011, early indications are that the economies of the six countries in South East Europe (the SEE6: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia) are slowing drastically and can expect just 1.1 percent growth in 2012. Economic conditions in the Eurozone are holding back economic activity and depressing government revenues in SEE6 countries. With both public debt and financing pressures high, most countries in the region need to embark on major fiscal consolidation programs if they are to reverse their adverse debt dynamics and avoid financing problems down the road. The good news is that in general the SEE6 financial sectors are still relatively well placed, despite elevated risks and vulnerability to adverse shocks, especially the possibility of contagion if the Greek crisis should intensify. In SEE6, levels of non-performing loans (NPL), though high, seem at least to be stabilizing, capital buffers and provisioning look solid, and liquidity is adequate in most of the region. But given the significant risks in the Eurozone associated with the Greek crisis, it cannot be overemphasized that the authorities must continue to demand that banks build up their buffers to make the sector more resilient.The bad news is social: SEE6 countries have the highest unemployment and poverty rates in Europe. Moreover, what growth there was during the nascent recovery in 2010-11 was largely jobless. At about 23 percent, the average unemployment rate in SEE6 is more than twice the Western Europe average, and is highly concentrated among youth and long-term unemployed, with devastating impact on human capital. Pre-crisis poverty reduction gains are being reversed, and after large shocks and depleted household buffers and savings, the middle class has become more vulnerable. With growth prospects much more moderate than before the crisis and with social pressures high, it is urgent that SEE6 country governments adopt a more ambitious structural reform agenda for growth and jobs. Yet even with the difficult short-term situation, SEE6 countries now have historic opportunity to board the European “convergence train” and over the long term reduce their per capita income gap with developed European Union countries. All earlier entrants were able to “catch up quickly.” In principle, the same “convergence train” is now pulling into the EU candidate countries in SEE6; but these gains are not automatic, they will materialize only if country policies and reforms facilitate them. The long-term SEE6 structural reform agenda must leverage greater trade and financial integration and reform labor markets and the public sector.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2102535_code58432.pdf?abstractid=2102535

South East Europe Regular Economic Report (See Rer) No. 2

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South East Europe Regular Economic Report No. 3: From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reform

South East Europe Regular Economic Report No. 4: From Double Dip Recession to Fragile Recovery

South East Europe Six: From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reforms

South East Europe Regular Economic Report (See Rer) No. 2