An updated procedure for objective identification and tracking of surface cyclones from gridded analyses is described. Prior smoothing of the raw data with a constant radius spatial filter is used to remove distortions related to the particular grid configuration used and to consistently admit a known scale of disturbance over the domain. Pitfalls of using central pressure or vorticity to infer cyclone intensity are illustrated, and a procedure for obtaining a more realistic areal measure of circulation is described. An automated selection procedure for storms having specific properties is outlined. Case selection is by computer search of a database of cyclone tracks, obtained from an application of the cyclone finding and tracking procedure to an extended series of gridded mean sea level pressure analyses. A selection of winter season cyclone statistics for both hemispheres is obtained from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses. Discrepancies with and between earlier studie...

/pdf/objective-identification-of-cyclones-and-their-circulation-5c2mrsm585.pdf

Objective Identification of Cyclones and Their Circulation Intensity, and Climatology

A mesoscale model is used here to investigate the possible sources of forecast error for the 24–25 January 2000 snowstorm along the east coast of the United States. The primary focus is the quantitative precipitation forecast out to lead times of 36 h. The success of the present high-resolution control forecast shows that the storm could have been well forecasted with conventional data in real time. Various experiments suggest that insufficient model grid resolution and errors in the initial conditions both contributed significantly to problems in the forecast. Other experiments, motivated by the possibility that the forecast errors arose from the operational analysis poorly fitting one or two key soundings, test the effects of withholding single soundings from the control initial conditions. While no single sounding results in forecast changes that are more than a small fraction of the error in the operational forecast, these experiments do reveal that the detailed mesoscale distribution of prec...

/pdf/mesoscale-predictability-of-the-surprise-snowstorm-of-24-25-2ghjqys5e3.pdf

Mesoscale Predictability of the “Surprise” Snowstorm of 24–25 January 2000

Composite analysis of North Atlantic midlatitudinal winter cyclones is performed using NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for the 60-yr period from 1948 to 2007. The composites were developed using an advanced methodology involving the coordinate transform of cyclones into a nondimensional azimuthal coordinate system and the further collocation of fields. Composite analysis is performed for air–sea turbulent fluxes, heat content, precipitable water, and precipitation for 576 oceanic cyclones generated in the Gulf Stream area in winter (January–March) from 1948 to 2007. For the region of cyclone generation over the Gulf Stream, composites were analyzed for different cyclone intensities. Over the whole North Atlantic, composites were developed throughout the life cycle and for different cyclone types classified by the regions of their migration. These classifications allow the case-to-case variability to be minimized and the robustness of the composite to be boosted. In the region of cyclone generation over ...

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MWR3294.1

Composite Analysis of North Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones in NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Data

Reviews and perspectives of high impact atmospheric processes in the Mediterranean

An objective climatology of explosive cyclones is performed over a 40-year period (1962–2001), for the Mediterranean region with the aid of the Melbourne University automatic cyclone finding and tracking scheme. The major temporal and spatial characteristics of Mediterranean explosive cyclones are investigated, including frequency, movement, generation and dissipation, scale, depth, and intensity. It was verified that the explosive cyclogenesis in the Mediterranean is a rather rare phenomenon that occurs mainly from November to March. Explosive cyclones preferentially form along the northern Mediterranean coast, with maximum density in the Ligurian and Aegean Seas. The cyclogenesis mechanism that predominates in their development is characterized by an interaction of a short and an open long wave in a pre-existing development (referred to as the KF mechanism). There are distinct differences between Western Mediterranean and Eastern Mediterranean explosive cyclones. Although explosive cyclones tend to form in the Western Mediterranean, their scale and depth is greater in the Eastern Mediterranean. Explosive cyclones more likely move from the main cyclogenetic areas in the Western Mediterranean along specific eastward paths over southern Italy and the Ionian Sea where they dissipate or they generate in Eastern Mediterranean and move north-eastwards to the Black Sea or eastwards to Cyprus and Middle East. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Climatological aspects of explosive cyclones in the Mediterranean

The explosively deepening oceanic cyclone or “bomb,” one which has central pressure falls of 12 mb (12 h)−1 or greater, has been studied using composites constructed from North Atlantic and Pacific weather ship rawinsonde data during the period October 1965 to May 1974, June through September excluded. The composites revealed that the oceanic bomb evolved in a low-level baroclinic environment where the incipient circulation was confined to the lower troposphere. The cyclone subsequently developed into a deep vortex characterized by strong baroclinicity, strong low and midlevel ascent to the north and east of the cyclone, and lower tropospheric conditional instability found near and to the southeast of the cyclone center. A case study of a very intense cyclone that passed near ship 4YP revealed deep layers of conditional instability near the low center. It appears that explosively deepening cyclones are baroclinic phenomena whose development may be enhanced in some cases by the bulk effects of cum...

An Investigation of Explosively Deepening Oceanic Cyclones

A diagnostic study of two intense oceanic cyclones (16–18 November 1972 and 9–11 January 1982) along the east coast of North America is presented. Both cyclones formed along a strong low-level baroclinic zone and deepened in response to an approaching tropospheric short-wave trough aloft. The 16–18 November 1972 storm developed along a Carolina coastal front in a region of enhanced low-level convergence and cyclonic vorticity generation favorable for incipient cyclogenesis. Significant oceanic heat and moisture fluxes northeast of the cyclone helped to enhance the low-level baroclinicity and to destabilize the warm, moist air mass along the cyclones’ path. Explosive deepening [35 mb(12 h)−1] commenced when a rather ordinary midtropospheric trough was about 300 km upstream of the surface low. A noteworthy aspect of the storm was the existence of deep convection near the center throughout the deepening phase and the exceptionally tight inner pressure gradient, suggestive of the role of diabatic pro...

A Diagnostic Study of Two Intense Oceanic Cyclones

A case of incipient explosive marine cyclogenesis along the east coast of North America from February 1974 is investigated. The cyclone was noteworthy for deepening 36 mb in 15 h as it crossed a region of anomalously warm sea surface temperatures beneath a very favorable flow configuration aloft for explosive development. The precyclogenetic environment featured coastal frontogenesis and cyclonic vorticity production in association with oceanic sensible and latent heat fluxes in the westward-flowing air in advance of the cyclone. The resulting relatively high values of surface vorticity in the coastal baroclinic zone probably helped to contribute to the intensity of the ensuing cyclogenesis, as a peak cyclonic vorticity tendency of ∼ 30 × 10−9 s−2 was computed in the coastal baroclinic zone at the time of most rapid surface intensification. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.1995.470101.x

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1995.470101.x

Incipient explosive marine cyclogenesis: coastal development

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An Investigation of Explosively Deepening Oceanic Cyclones

A Diagnostic Study of Two Intense Oceanic Cyclones

Incipient explosive marine cyclogenesis: coastal development