Epidemiology of cholera

Outbreaks of cholera in Africa seem to be unrelenting which has been continuous and recurrent leading to high morbidity and mortality in some quarters. The objective of this narrative review is to investigate and identify factors responsible for the recurrent outbreaks of cholera in Africa and response strategies that have been employed in curbing the problem, with the view of aggregating otherwise sparing data needed for policy formulation geared towards control and eradication of the disease. Search of literatures indexed in Google Scholar, PubMed and AJOL databases was carried out. Sixty-five eligible articles with reports on the risk factors that drive recurrent outbreaks, endemicity and response strategies were analyzed. Our findings indicate that continuous and recurrent outbreaks of cholera in Africa are fueled by cross-border migration, environmental reservoirs, socioeconomic factors, climate change and political instability. The review also identified specific response strategies and modelling approaches that have helped in containing and reducing the impact of these outbreaks. Paying attention and tackling these identified factors that are dependent and independent can help put an end to this running battle.

Recurrent cholera epidemics in Africa: which way forward? A literature review

Healthcare-associated outbreaks of bacterial infections in Africa, 2009-2018: A review.

Cholera epidemics continue to challenge disease control, particularly in fragile and conflict-affected states. Rapid detection and response to small cholera clusters is key for efficient control before an epidemic propagates. To understand the capacity for early response in fragile states, we investigated delays in outbreak detection, investigation, response, and laboratory confirmation, and we estimated epidemic sizes. We assessed predictors of delays, and annual changes in response time. We compiled a list of cholera outbreaks in fragile and conflict-affected states from 2008 to 2019. We searched for peer-reviewed articles and epidemiological reports. We evaluated delays from the dates of symptom onset of the primary case, and the earliest dates of outbreak detection, investigation, response, and confirmation. Information on how the outbreak was alerted was summarized. A branching process model was used to estimate epidemic size at each delay. Regression models were used to investigate the association between predictors and delays to response. Seventy-six outbreaks from 34 countries were included. Median delays spanned 1–2 weeks: from symptom onset of the primary case to presentation at the health facility (5 days, IQR 5–5), detection (5 days, IQR 5–6), investigation (7 days, IQR 5.8–13.3), response (10 days, IQR 7–18), and confirmation (11 days, IQR 7–16). In the model simulation, the median delay to response (10 days) with 3 seed cases led to a median epidemic size of 12 cases (upper range, 47) and 8% of outbreaks ≥ 20 cases (increasing to 32% with a 30-day delay to response). Increased outbreak size at detection (10 seed cases) and a 10-day median delay to response resulted in an epidemic size of 34 cases (upper range 67 cases) and < 1% of outbreaks < 20 cases. We estimated an annual global decrease in delay to response of 5.2% (95% CI 0.5–9.6, p = 0.03). Outbreaks signaled by immediate alerts were associated with a reduction in delay to response of 39.3% (95% CI 5.7–61.0, p = 0.03). From 2008 to 2019, median delays from symptom onset of the primary case to case presentation and to response were 5 days and 10 days, respectively. Our model simulations suggest that depending on the outbreak size (3 versus 10 seed cases), in 8 to 99% of scenarios, a 10-day delay to response would result in large clusters that would be difficult to contain. Improving the delay to response involves rethinking the integration at local levels of event-based detection, rapid diagnostic testing for cluster validation, and integrated alert, investigation, and response.

/pdf/early-detection-of-cholera-epidemics-to-support-control-in-hxqu9liv9k.pdf

Early detection of cholera epidemics to support control in fragile states: estimation of delays and potential epidemic sizes.

Detection, confirmation and monitoring of cholera outbreaks in many developing countries including Uganda is a big challenge due to lack of the required resources and the time the test takes. Culture method which takes 24–48 h to get the feedback and requires highly skilled laboratory staff plus other complex resources is the standard test. This study evaluated the new cholera rapid detection method that relies on Crystal VC dipsticks after enrichment with alkaline peptone water (APW) against the culture method for monitoring the progress of cholera outbreaks in rural setting. We conducted the study between March and June 2015. Fresh stool samples and rectal swabs were incubated in 1% APW for 6 h at room temperature before testing with RDT following the manufacturer’s instruction. The same stool sample was cultured to isolate V. cholerae in the standard manner. We also reviewed patient registers to epidemiologically describe the cholera epidemic. We tested stool from 102 consenting suspected cholera patients reporting during daytime at Bwera Hospital (n = 69), Kilembe Mines Hospital (n = 4) and Kinyabwama Health Centre (n = 29). Ninety one (91) samples were positive and nine samples were negative according to both methods. One (1) sample was positive only by dipstick and one sample was positive only by culture (sensitivity of 99%, specificity of 90%, Positive Predictive Value of 99% and Negative Predictive Value of 90%). Overall, 146 suspected cholera cases and two deaths, (case fatality rate of 1.36%) were recorded during the study period. Among the cases aged 1–9 years, 63% (50/79) were males while in those aged 20–49 years, 76% (34/45) were females. Our findings showed that the modified dipstick test after enrichment with 1% APW had high level of accuracy in detection of V. cholerae and is quick, affordable alternative cholera outbreak monitoring tool in resource constrained settings. However, culture method should remain for cholera epidemic confirmation, for monitoring of antibiotic sensitivity and for production of pure isolates for molecular characterization. Further studies should be done to better understand the observed age and sex case distribution, in Kasese district.

/pdf/alkaline-peptone-water-enrichment-with-a-dipstick-test-to-8pvfyj6ocu.pdf

Alkaline peptone water enrichment with a dipstick test to quickly detect and monitor cholera outbreaks.

During the last four decades, Uganda has experienced repeated cholera outbreaks in communities; no cholera outbreaks have been reported in Ugandan health facilities. In October 2008, a unique cholera outbreak was confirmed in Butabika National Mental Referral Hospital (BNMRH), Uganda. This article describes actions taken to control the outbreak, challenges, and lessons learnt. We reviewed patient and hospital reports for clinical symptoms and signs, treatment and outcome, patient mental diagnosis, and challenges noted during management of patients and contacts. Out of 114 BNMRH patients on two affected wards, 18 cholera cases and five deaths were documented for an attack rate of 15.8% and a case fatality rate of 28%. Wards and surroundings were intensively disinfected and 96 contacts (psychiatric patients) in the affected wards received chemoprophylaxis with oral ciprofloxacin 500 mg twice daily until November 5, 2008. We documented a nosocomial cholera outbreak in BNMRH with a high case fatality of 28% compared with the national average of 2.4% for cholera outbreaks in communities. To avoid cholera outbreaks and potentially high mortality among patients in mental institutions, procedures for prompt diagnosis, treatment, disinfection, and prophylaxis are needed and preemptive use of oral cholera vaccines should be considered.

Nosocomial Cholera Outbreak in a Mental Hospital: Challenges and Lessons Learnt from Butabika National Referral Mental Hospital, Uganda

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Nosocomial Cholera Outbreak in a Mental Hospital: Challenges and Lessons Learnt from Butabika National Referral Mental Hospital, Uganda