The Yemen cholera outbreak has been driven by years of conflict and has now become the largest in epidemiologically recorded history with more than 1.2 million cases since the beginning of the outbreak in April, 2017. In this report we review and discuss the cholera management strategies applied by the major international humanitarian health organizations present in Yemen. We find the response by the organizations examined to have been more focused on case management than on outbreak prevention. Oral Cholera Vaccines (OCVs) were not delivered until nearly 16 months into the outbreak. A recent scale-up of the global OCV stockpile will hopefully allow for rapid mass deployment of the OCV in future humanitarian emergencies. Continuous funding to this stockpile will be crucial to maintain this option for prevention and control of cholera outbreaks. Of equal importance will be the timely recognition of the need for mass OCV deployment and development of more specific, comprehensive and actionable evidence-based frameworks to help guide this decision, however difficult this may be. The outbreak highlights the importance for international humanitarian health organizations to have a continuous discussion about whether and to what extent they should increase their focus on pre-emptively addressing the environmental determinants of communicable diseases in humanitarian emergencies. Strong advocacy from the public health community for peace and the protection of human health, by bringing to attention the public health impacts of armed conflict and keeping the world’s political leaders accountable to their actions, will remain crucial.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12889-018-6227-6.pdf

The cholera outbreak in Yemen: lessons learned and way forward

Global oral cholera vaccine use, 2013-2018.

The cholera epidemic that occurred in Haiti post-earthquake in 2010 has resulted in over 9000 deaths during the past eight years. Currently, morbidity and mortality rates for cholera have declined, but cholera cases still occur on a daily basis. One continuing issue is an inability to accurately predict and identify when cholera outbreaks might occur. To explore this surveillance gap, a metagenomic approach employing environmental samples was taken. In this study, surface water samples were collected at two time points from several sites near the original epicenter of the cholera outbreak in the Central Plateau of Haiti. These samples underwent whole genome sequencing and subsequent metagenomic analysis to characterize the microbial community of bacteria, fungi, protists, and viruses, and to identify antibiotic resistance and virulence associated genes. Replicates from sites were analyzed by principle components analysis, and distinct genomic profiles were obtained for each site. Cholera toxin converting phage was detected at one site, and Shiga toxin converting phages at several sites. Members of the Acinetobacter family were frequently detected in samples, including members implicated in waterborne diseases. These results indicate a metagenomic approach to evaluating water samples can be useful for source tracking and the surveillance of pathogens such as Vibrio cholerae over time, as well as for monitoring virulence factors such as cholera toxin.

/pdf/a-metagenomic-approach-to-evaluating-surface-water-quality-4bn7fxb8zy.pdf

A Metagenomic Approach to Evaluating Surface Water Quality in Haiti

During 2014, Africa reported more than half of the global suspected cholera cases. Based on the data collected from seven countries in the African Cholera Surveillance Network (Africhol), we assessed the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of clinical cholera case definitions, including that recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) using culture confirmation as the gold standard. The study was designed to assess results in real-world field situations in settings with recent cholera outbreaks or endemicity. From June 2011 to July 2015, a total of 5,084 persons with suspected cholera were tested for Vibrio cholerae in seven different countries of which 35.7% had culture confirmation. For all countries combined, the WHO case definition had a sensitivity = 92.7%, specificity = 8.1%, positive predictive value = 36.1%, and negative predictive value = 66.6%. Adding dehydration, vomiting, or rice water stools to the case definition could increase the specificity without a substantial decrease in sensitivity. Future studies could further refine our findings primarily by using more sensitive methods for cholera confirmation.

/pdf/sensitivity-specificity-and-public-health-utility-of-3llhax3asb.pdf

Sensitivity, Specificity, and Public-Health Utility of Clinical Case Definitions Based on the Signs and Symptoms of Cholera in Africa

Epidemics of infectious disease occur frequently in low-income and humanitarian settings and pose a serious threat to populations. However, relatively little is known about responses to these epidemics. Robust evaluations can generate evidence on response efforts and inform future improvements. This systematic review aimed to (i) identify epidemics reported in low-income and crisis settings, (ii) determine the frequency with which evaluations of responses to these epidemics were conducted, (iii) describe the main typologies of evaluations undertaken and (iv) identify key gaps and strengths of recent evaluation practice. Reported epidemics were extracted from the following sources: World Health Organization Disease Outbreak News (WHO DON), UNICEF Cholera platform, Reliefweb, PROMED and Global Incidence Map. A systematic review for evaluation reports was conducted using the MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, Web of Science, WPRIM, Reliefweb, PDQ Evidence and CINAHL Plus databases, complemented by grey literature searches using Google and Google Scholar. Evaluation records were quality-scored and linked to epidemics based on time and place. The time period for the review was 2010–2019. A total of 429 epidemics were identified, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia. A total of 15,424 potential evaluations records were screened, 699 assessed for eligibility and 132 included for narrative synthesis. Only one tenth of epidemics had a corresponding response evaluation. Overall, there was wide variability in the quality, content as well as in the disease coverage of evaluation reports. The current state of evaluations of responses to these epidemics reveals large gaps in coverage and quality and bears important implications for health equity and accountability to affected populations. The limited availability of epidemic response evaluations prevents improvements to future public health response. The diversity of emphasis and methods of available evaluations limits comparison across responses and time. In order to improve future response and save lives, there is a pressing need to develop a standardized and practical approach as well as governance arrangements to ensure the systematic conduct of epidemic response evaluations in low-income and crisis settings.

/pdf/the-practice-of-evaluating-epidemic-response-in-humanitarian-1imfdm680z.pdf

The practice of evaluating epidemic response in humanitarian and low-income settings: a systematic review.

The devastating 2010 cholera epidemic in Haiti prompted the government to introduce oral cholera vaccine (OCV) in two high-risk areas of Haiti. We evaluated the direct costs associated with the government's first vaccine campaign implemented in August-September 2013. We analyzed data for major cost categories and assessed the efficiency of available campaign resources to vaccinate the target population. For a target population of 107,906 persons, campaign costs totaled $624,000 and 215,295 OCV doses were dispensed. The total vaccine and operational cost was $2.90 per dose; vaccine alone cost $1.85 per dose, vaccine delivery and administration $0.70 per dose, and vaccine storage and transport $0.35 per dose. Resources were greater than needed-our analyses suggested that approximately 2.5-6 times as many persons could have been vaccinated during this campaign without increasing the resources allocated for vaccine delivery and administration. These results can inform future OCV campaigns in Haiti.

Cost Evaluation of a Government-Conducted Oral Cholera Vaccination Campaign-Haiti, 2013.

Since October 2010, over 700,000 cholera cases have been reported in Haiti. We used data from laboratory-based surveillance for diarrhea in Haiti to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, and positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of the cholera case definitions recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). From April 2012 to May 2013, we tested 1,878 samples from hospitalized patients with acute watery diarrhea; 1,178 (62.7%) yielded Vibrio cholerae O1. The sensitivity and specificity of the WHO case definition for cholera in an epidemic setting were 91.3% and 43.1%, respectively, and the PPV and NPV were 72.8% and 74.8%, respectively. The WHO case definition for cholera in an area where cholera is not known to be present had lower sensitivity (63.1%) and NPV (55.1%) but higher specificity (74.2%) and PPV (80.0%). When laboratory diagnostic testing is not immediately available, clinicians can evaluate signs and symptoms to more accurately identify cholera patients.

IDENTIFYING THE MOST SENSITIVE AND SPECIFIC SIGN AND SYMPTOM COMBINATIONS FOR CHOLERA Identifying the Most Sensitive and Specific Sign and Symptom Combinations for Cholera: Results from an Analysis of Laboratory-Based Surveillance Data from Haiti, 2012-2013

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Cost Evaluation of a Government-Conducted Oral Cholera Vaccination Campaign-Haiti, 2013.

IDENTIFYING THE MOST SENSITIVE AND SPECIFIC SIGN AND SYMPTOM COMBINATIONS FOR CHOLERA Identifying the Most Sensitive and Specific Sign and Symptom Combinations for Cholera: Results from an Analysis of Laboratory-Based Surveillance Data from Haiti, 2012-2013