Abstract. Deciduous forests are characterized by a higher albedo, a reduced stomatal
resistance, and a deeper root system in comparison to coniferous forests. As a consequence, less solar radiation is absorbed and evapotranspiration is potentially increased, making an increase in the deciduous forest fraction a potentially promising measure to mitigate the burdens of heat extremes for humans and nature. We analyze this potential by means of an idealized 30-year-long regional climate model (RCM) experiment, in which all coniferous forests in Europe are replaced by deciduous forests and compared to a simulation using the actual forest composition. Results show that an increase in the deciduous forest fraction reduces the
heat intensity during heat periods in most regions of Europe. During heat periods, there is a slight reduction in the mean daily maximum 2 m temperatures simulated of about 0.2 K locally and 0.1 K non-locally. Regions with a high cooling potential are southwestern France and northern Turkey, where heat period intensities are reduced by up to 1 K. Warming effects are simulated in Scandinavia and eastern Europe. Although the cooling effect on heat period intensities is statistically
significant over large parts of Europe, the magnitude of the temperature
reduction is small. Consequently, an increase in the deciduous forest fraction only has a limited potential to reduce heat period intensities in
Europe and can therefore only be considered as a supporting mitigation
measure to complement more effective mitigation strategies.


The potential of an increased deciduous forest fraction to mitigate the effects of heat extremes in Europe

This paper presents the methodology for the construction of the KNMI'23 national climate scenarios for the Netherlands. We have developed six scenarios, that cover a substantial part of the uncertainty in CMIP6 projections of future climate change in the region. Different sources of uncertainty are disentangled as much as possible, partly by means of a storyline approach. Uncertainty in future emissions is covered by making scenarios conditional on different SSP scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5). For each SSP scenario and time horizon (2050, 2100, 2150), we determine a global warming level based on the median of the constrained estimates of climate sensitivity from IPCC AR6. The remaining climate model uncertainty of the regional climate response at these warming levels is covered by two storylines, which are designed with a focus on the annual and seasonal mean precipitation response (a dry‐trending and wet‐trending variant for each SSP). This choice was motivated by the importance of future water management to society. For users with specific interests we provide means how to account for the impact of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. Since CMIP6 GCM data do not provide the required spatial detail for impact modeling, we reconstruct the CMIP6 responses by resampling internal variability in a GCM‐RCM initial‐condition ensemble. The resulting climate scenarios form a detailed storyline of plausible future climates in the Netherlands. The data can be used for impact calculations and assessments by stakeholders, and will be used to inform policy making in different sectors of Dutch society.

KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios for the Netherlands: Storyline Scenarios of Regional Climate Change

Abstract. Afforestation affects the earth's climate system by changing the biogeochemical and biogeophysical characteristics of the land surface. While the regional effects of afforestation are well understood in the tropics and the high latitudes, its climate impact on the midlatitudes is still the subject of scientific discussions. The general impact of afforestation on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the last decades is investigated in this study. For this purpose, regional climate simulations are performed with different forest cover fractions over Europe. In a first simulation, afforestation in Europe is considered, while this is not the case for a second simulation. We focus on the years 1986–2015, a period in which the forest cover in Europe increased comparatively strongly, accompanied by a strong general warming over the continent. Results show that afforestation has both local and non-local effects on the regional climate system in Europe. Due to an increased transport of turbulent heat (latent + sensible) into the atmosphere, afforestation leads to a significant reduction of the mean local surface temperatures in summer. In northern Europe, mean local surface temperatures were reduced about −0.3 K with afforestation, in central Europe about −0.5 K, and in southern Europe about −0.8 K. During heat periods, this local cooling effect can reach −1.9 K. In winter, afforestation results in a slight local warming in both northern and southern Europe because of the albedo effect of forests. However, this effect is rather small and the mean temperature changes are not significant. In the downwind direction, locally increased evapotranspiration rates with afforestation increase the general cloud cover, which results in a slight non-local warming in winter in several regions of Europe, particularly during cold spells. Thus, afforestation had a discernible impact on the climate change signal in Europe during the period 1986–2015, which may have mitigated the general warming trend in Europe, especially on the local scale in summer.


The effect of forest cover changes on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015

Past, present and future of land use and soil physicochemical properties in the Province of Salamanca (Spain)

Abstract Tipping elements on Earth are components that undergo rapid and irreversible changes when climate change reaches a tipping point. They are highly sensitive to climate variations and serve as early warning signs of global change. Human activities, including global climate pledges, significantly influence the climate and the state of tipping elements. Land changes serve as the external and intuitive response of tipping elements to climate change, making it essential to identify shifts in the land system. We produced a 1-km land system dataset for terrestrial tipping elements on Earth for the years 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2100 under global climate pledges by integrating the GCAM with a modified version of CLUMondo. Our dataset includes 30 thematic categories, combining three density types and ten land cover types. The dataset illustrates potential land system changes under global climate pledges, contrasting with common SSP and RCP scenarios. Our simulations demonstrate high accuracy, offering valuable insights into tipping elements and the assessment of the impacts of global climate pledges on Earth. 

Land system changes of terrestrial tipping elements on Earth under global climate pledges: 2000–2100

. Anthropogenic land-use and land cover change (LULCC) is a major driver of environmental changes. The biophysical impacts of these changes on the regional climate in Europe are currently extensively investigated within the WCRP CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study (FPS) LUCAS - "Land Use and Climate Across Scales" using an ensemble of different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) coupled with diverse Land Surface Models (LSMs). In order to investigate the impact of realistic LULCC on past and future climates, high-resolution datasets with observed LULCC and projected future LULCC 5 scenarios are required as input for the RCM-LSM

High-resolution land use and land cover dataset for regional climate modelling: Historical and future changes in Europe

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High-resolution land use and land cover dataset for regional climate modelling: Historical and future changes in Europe