Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IN addition to the well-known warming of ∼0.5 °C since the middle of the nineteenth century, global-mean surface temperature records1–4display substantial variability on timescales of a century or less. Accurate prediction of future temperature change requires an understanding of the causes of this variability; possibilities include external factors, such as increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations5–7 and anthropogenic sulphate aerosols8–10, and internal factors, both predictable (such as El Nino11) and unpredictable (noise12,13). Here we apply singular spectrum analysis14–20 to four global-mean temperature records1–4, and identify a temperature oscillation with a period of 65–70 years. Singular spectrum analysis of the surface temperature records for 11 geographical regions shows that the 65–70-year oscillation is the statistical result of 50–88-year oscillations for the North Atlantic Ocean and its bounding Northern Hemisphere continents. These oscillations have obscured the greenhouse warming signal in the North Atlantic and North America. Comparison with previous observations and model simulations suggests that the oscillation arises from predictable internal variability of the ocean–atmosphere system.

An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years

Our current understanding of mechanisms that are, or may be, acting to cause climate change over the past century is briefly reviewed, with an emphasis on those due to human activity. The paper discusses the general level of confidence in these estimates and areas of remaining uncertainty. The effects of increases in the so-called well-mixed greenhouse gases, and in particular carbon dioxide, appear to be the dominant mechanism. However, there are considerable uncertainties in our estimates of many other forcing mechanisms; those associated with the so-called indirect aerosol forcing (whereby changes in aerosols can impact on cloud properties) may be the most serious, as its climatic effect may be of a similar size as, but opposite sign to, that due to carbon dioxide. The possible role of volcanic eruptions as a natural climate change mechanism is also highlighted.

/pdf/radiative-forcing-of-climate-change-7is7s1hlyy.pdf

Radiative forcing of climate change

The development of this
review article has evolved from work carried out by an international
team of the International Space Science Institute (ISSI),
Bern, Switzerland, and from work carried out under the auspices
of Scientific Committee on Solar Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP)
Climate and Weather of the Sun‐Earth System (CAWSES‐1).
The support of ISSI in providing workshop and meeting facilities
is acknowledged, especially support from Y. Calisesi and V. Manno.
SCOSTEP is acknowledged for kindly providing financial assistance
to allow the paper to be published under an open access
policy. L.J.G. was supported by the UK Natural Environment
Research Council (NERC) through their National Centre for Atmospheric
Research (NCAS) Climate program. K.M. was supported
by a Marie Curie International Outgoing Fellowship within the
6th European Community Framework Programme. J.L. acknowledges
support by the EU/FP7 program Assessing Climate Impacts
on the Quantity and Quality of Water (ACQWA, 212250) and from
the DFG Project Precipitation in the Past Millennium in Europe
(PRIME) within the Priority Program INTERDYNAMIK. L.H.
acknowledges support from the U.S. NASA Living With a Star
program. G.M. acknowledges support from the Office of Science
(BER), U.S. Department of Energy, Cooperative Agreement
DE‐FC02‐97ER62402, and the National Science Foundation. We
also wish to thank Karin Labitzke and Markus Kunze for supplying
an updated Figure 13, Andrew Heaps for technical support, and
Paul Dickinson for editorial support. Part of the research was
carried out under the SPP CAWSES funded by GFG. J.B. was
financially supported by NCCR Climate–Swiss Climate Research.

/pdf/solar-influences-on-climate-48ynhy9kuz.pdf

Solar influences on climate

/pdf/radiative-forcing-of-climate-change-28f4rvm6wz.pdf

Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

Among the various uncertainties present in climate modeling, the variability of total solar irradiance is not one of the least. For lack of any direct measure of the solar irradiance in the past, substitutes are needed. However, the difficulties are twofold: (1) the reliability of the proxies and (2) the need for some physical mechanism relating these proxies to the solar luminosity. On the basis of a better understanding of the solar machinery we can now propose a plausible scenario connecting the exchanges of energy between the various reservoirs: magnetic, thermal, gravitational, and kinetic. In the present paper we discuss the available proxies and suggest a way to reconstruct total solar irradiance over the past four centuries. The response of the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique atmospheric general circulation model to magnetoconvective solar forcing during the Maunder minimum is discussed. The simulated cooling appears to be compatible with temperature data from the Little Ice Age; in addition, it is found that variations of globally homogeneous external forcing parameters, like incoming solar flux or greenhouse gas loading, yield climate responses with very similar geographical patterns.

Solar dynamics and its impact on solar irradiance and the terrestrial climate

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Solar dynamics and its impact on solar irradiance and the terrestrial climate