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Bounded rationality and spatio-temporal pedestrian shopping behavior

Consumers shopping at a downtown commercial area usualy visit several shops changing their purpose as they go and deciding where to purchase what commodity.Such behaviors,known as ‘kaiyu’in Japanese,are caled‘shop-around behavior’.The precise definition of shop-around behavior is an evolution of consumers’triple decisions about destination,aim and expenditure as they move around a downtown area.While analyzing and predicting such consumer behaviors is important,it is a difficult task because not only changes in the above consumers’triple decisions but also the complex factors affecting those decisions must be taken into account.Therefore,the problem of how to deal with simultaneous changes in the triple decisions has long been left unconsidered.This paper is the first attempt to address this problem.Applying Bayesian Networks(BN)to actual data,we obtained conditional probabilities for many interdependent factors in shop-around behaviors.These probabilities surprisingly infer that shops most utilized for waiting to meet visitors are usualy not used for other purposes.These results show the applicability and efficacy of BN for modeling complex consumer shop-around behaviors. 1. 本研究のねらいと目的 1.1 本研究のねらい 街を行きかう人々の流れやそのパターンは,その街を特徴付ける重要な現象である。特に都心商業地 域での消費者の渡り歩き行動は,回遊行動と呼ばれ,すでに,1980年代の初めから,斎藤[14]を嚆矢 として精力的に研究されてきた。とくに近年,中心市街地の空洞化や街の賑わいの創出が都市政策の重 要課題になったことにともなって,街の賑わいを特徴付ける回遊行動に大きな注目が集まりつつある。 一般に,消費者は,商業地域内で,ファッションや身の回り品の買物あるいは食事といったように,そ の時々に行動目的を変えつつ,複数の場所や店舗を渡り歩き,気に入った商品があれば購入するなどの 消費支出を行い,当日の商業地域への購買行動トリップからえられる効用を最大にするように回遊行動 を行っていると考えられる(斎藤[14][15])。 このように考えると,回遊行動は消費者による街の魅力の 足による投票」とみること(斎藤[15]),消 費者の回遊行動を分析することで,街の特性や魅力の特徴をより深く理解することができることになる。 さらに,もしも多様な消費者の回遊行動を予測することができるようになれば,街の賑わいや活性化な ど,さまざまな施策にその知見を活用できることになるはずである。 769 地域学研究(Studies in Regional Science),Vol.37,No.3,2007,769-785. 東京大学医科学研究所 福岡大学経済学部・福岡大学都市空間情報行動研究所 2006年3月3日受付 2007年8月5日受理 C日本地域学会(JSRSAI)2007 実際,斎藤([18])では,福岡都心部での人の流れの重心が大規模商業再開発により105 m南下した との検証結果(斎藤・中嶋・栫井[31])の発表から約4年遅れで,最高路線価の地点が,人の流れの重心 を追うように,南に入れ替わった事実を報告しており,回遊行動を分析することが,街の変化を先取り できることを示している。また,斎藤・山城([35])による都心100円バスの経済効果の推計結果から, 中心市街地では,集客とともに,回遊を促進することが,大きな経済効果をもたらすこともわかってき た(斎藤[18])。 さらに,最近のモバイルインターネットや携帯など,ICTの目覚しい発展によって,回遊行動の分析 から得られた情報を様々な分野へ応用する可能性が大きく開けてきた。例えば,マーケティングにおい ては,ターゲットとする顧客層の回遊パターンから,自店舗と顧客を取り合っている店舗,すなわち競 合関係にある店舗や逆に共同関係にある店舗の把握に繋がり,効果的なプロモーション戦略立案への利 用などであり,都市経営・計画では,都市内での流動性を上げるための,歩行者用通路の設計設置や歩 行者ナビゲーションシステムの導入などである(斎藤[17][18])。 しかしながら,場所や店舗間の移動,行動目的の変更,購買支出など,行先・目的・消費の同時決定 とみることができる回遊行動がどのようになされるかは,年齢や性別,所得,都心部へ来街する回数と いった消費者の個人属性はもちろんのこと,来街時点の時間や曜日,来街時の予算,一緒に来た同伴者 の数や種類,さらには,購買態度の違いなど,様々な複雑・不確実な要因によって影響を受け,どのよ うな消費者が,どこに立ち寄り,どの店舗をどの順番で回るのかといったことを分析,予測することは 非常に困難であり,消費者の個人レベルにまで踏み込んで,多様な消費者の回遊行動の行動規則・行動 文法を抽出することが,大きな課題となっていた。 本研究のねらいは,既存の回遊行動研究において,適切な手法を欠いていたこともあり,必ずしも十 分に扱われてきたとはいえない,この課題に真正面から取り組むことである。より具体的には,行先・ 目的・消費の同時決定の連鎖として回遊行動を捉えるとともに,この同時決定としての回遊行動に影響 を与える,多様で複雑・不確実な要因を同時に考察・分析できる,ベイジアンネットとよばれる新しい 統計モデルを,はじめて回遊行動に適用し,この課題に取り組むことである。 1.2 既存研究と本研究の位置づけ 上で述べた問題関心は,回遊行動研究のこれまでの研究関心の流れの発展形であり,2000年以前にお ける回遊行動研究の関心の置き方と微妙な違いがある。ここで,主に2000年以降に力点をおいて,これ までの回遊行動研究の流れについて概観し,本研究の位置づけをおこなっておきたい。 斎藤([14])は,回遊行動を商業集積の集積効果の具体的現れであると捉え(斎藤[15]),回遊性の 観点から都心空間を評価する数理モデルとして回遊マルコフモデルを考案した。その後,斎藤・石橋 ([20])は,現状の記述にとどまっていた回遊マルコフモデルを,非集計ロジットモデルによって,帰宅 選択を含む回遊選択確率を説明する,説明変数つき回遊マルコフモデルを構築し,再開発によって回遊 行動がどのように変化するかを予測できるように拡張した。しかし,斎藤・石橋のモデルでは,回遊行動 のパターンの変化を確率ベースで予測することはできても,再開発による集客数の増大といった,回遊 している人々の実際の数を実数ベースで推計・予測することが出来なかった。 これに対し,斎藤・熊田・石橋([27]),斎藤・栫井・中嶋([24])は,来街地ベースでの都心部回遊行動 調査に,都心部への出向頻度の調査項目を加え,来街地ベース調査につきもののChoice-basedバイアス を取り除き,居住地ベース調査と同様の精度をもつ,来街地ベース集客数予測ポアソン回帰モデルの開 発を行った。その結果,再開発による集客数の増加と実数ベースでの回遊パターンの変化を同時に予測 770 山 口・斎 藤

Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference of Complex Consumer Shop-around Behavior

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/srs/36/1/36_1_223/_pdf

都市消費者の買物行動の国際比較分析:—— 上海，台北，福岡の消費者の典型7品目に対する購買行動および外食行動の比較 ——

A consumer walking around a downtown shopping area usually visits several places and shops. From the point of view of city management, it is crucial to know and predict people’s movements in the area, for example, to plan to make better pathways to enhance mobility. From a shop manager’s point of view, it is also vital to grasp the tendency of people visiting other shops to identify whether those shops are competing or cooperating with his/her shop. In order to offer helpful information for these tasks, we used graphical models called Bayesian networks in this research. By applying the models to actual data obtained from questionnaire surveys of consumers who visited a downtown shopping area, we analyzed consumers’ shop-around or Kaiyu behaviors. 

A Bayesian Network Model of Consumers’ Kaiyu Behaviors

To give a general impression on the fast development of Chinese retailing, this paper reports a study on pedestrian shopping behavior in two city centers, East Nanjing Road and Wang Fujing Street in Shanghai and Beijing. Similarities and differences in pedestrian profiles, activities and movement patterns are generalized from a comparison of statistics from the two groups. Although their social-physical backgrounds are similar, the results indicate similarities in pedestrian profiles and movement patterns but differences in activities, and reflect some fundamental differences in the retail content and development stage of the two streets in during the modernization process.JEL classification: D12, R10

Similarities and differences in pedestrian shopping behavior in emerging Chinese metropolises

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/srs/35/4/35_4_763/_pdf

A Study on Consumer Shop-around Behavior at Nanjing Road, Shanghai

Though faced with the Asian currency crisis in 90's, China keeps the high economic growth rate. In Shanghai, the most modernized region in China, many urban redevelopment projects are under way. They include the Pudong district, which is famous for its newly developed huge New Town with a city center of skyscrapers, and many urban renewal programs at the old city center area near Nanjing Road, which has been recently renovated as the pedestrian walkway with colored tiled pavement. Many parts of Shanghai, whether they are new or old, are drastically changing their physical figures.On the other hand, retail business categories such as convenience store, supermarket, and hypermarket, which are new for China, have emerged and spread out rapidly. In fact, the first convenience store opened just three years ago, but now more than 1, 000 convenience stores are running. Consumers in Shanghai have adapted to these rapidly changing retail environments. It is no exaggeration to say that the future spatial structure of urban retail system will hinge on the course of the changes of consumer behaviors.Few studies, however, have been carried out to empirically clarify the actual behavior of consumers at urban China. With this in mind, for the first time we have conducted two surveys on consumer behaviors in Shanghai. One is the on-site survey on consumer shop-around behavior at the city center retail environment near Nanjing Road and the other the home-based diary survey on shopping behavior of consumers at suburban residential areas.Based on the latter diary survey, this paper tries to clarify the characteristics of consumer's shopping behaviors. We first classify shopping destinations into three categories: neighborhood shopping street, suburban shopping center, and central commercial district. Then we analyze how consumers allocate their shopping trips and expenditure among these three categories.Using above micro-data of consumer's behavior, we have shown that the central commercial district is characterized by less frequent with high expense shopping behavior and the neighborhood shopping street by high frequent with less expense shopping behavior. We also have shown that the difference of the age and income of consumers leads to different allocation patterns of shopping trip and expenditure among three destinations. In particular, we have shown that the shopping behavior of the age group of lOs to 20s is quite different from other age groups above 30 since they are much oriented to central commercial district in contrast to the other age groups oriented to neighborhood shopping street.

Shopping Behavior under the Rapidly Changing Retail Environment of Shanghai

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A Study on Consumer Shop-around Behavior at Nanjing Road, Shanghai

Shopping Behavior under the Rapidly Changing Retail Environment of Shanghai