Job creation during the global energy transition towards 100% renewable power system by 2050

(1976). Redesigning the Future: A Systems Approach to Societal Problems. Journal of the Operational Research Society: Vol. 27, Volume 27, issue 1, pp. 131-132.

Redesigning the Future: A Systems Approach to Societal Problems

The successful diffusion of rooftop solar photovoltaics (SPV) in residential sector depends on the decisions of bounded rational households to accept this technology. Such heterogeneous decision is formed by socio-demographic, economic and technical predictors interwoven with a variety of behavioural traits. Over the past years, these exogenous and endogenous predictors have served as the starting point of a large body of studies seeking to understand the heterogeneity of the behaviour and to predict the diffusion rate. The present systematic review primarily identifies the predictors of 173 original quantitative and qualitative studies on the residential adoption behaviour of SPV, solar home system (SHS) and SPV coupled with battery energy storage system (SPV-BESS) technologies. For the designated predictors, the study proposes a customised taxonomy aimed at in-depth understanding of knowledge in an organised and coherent framework. Extracted from 133 of the 173 initially reviewed papers, the last objective of the review further expands on current understanding of the predictors by exploring their correlations with the behaviour. The upshot of the review unfolds a total of 333 predictors that sought to investigate households' attitude, knowledge, tendency, awareness, willingness, intention and adoption decisions towards the uptake of SPV, SHS, and SPV-BESS. The identified predictors are classified into individual, social and information dimensions, with 20 categories and 20 subcategories. An exhaustive comparison on the frequency use of predictors denotes more popularity of social predictors led by ‘age’ and ‘income’, and ‘financial knowledge’ at the category dimension. However, the synthesised results of the vote-counting method applied to a total of 239 factors suggest a lower correlation of several traditional determinants (e.g., age, gender) whereas certain attitudinal traits categorised as individual demonstrate significant correlation with the behaviour.

Predictors, taxonomy of predictors, and correlations of predictors with the decision behaviour of residential solar photovoltaics adoption: A review

Active energy citizens are leading energy transitions, co-producing new cultures, practices and structures of production and consumption. This article aims to understand if prosumerism – the collective participation of prosumers in energy projects with social, economic and environmental benefits to society – can be referred to as a social movement. The article draws on a review of Social Movements Theory and applies thematic analysis to characterize 46 prosumer initiatives in Europe. The collective identities, socio-political opponents, knowledge-making activities, collective learning, and collective action aspects of these prosumers are described. The results show that prosumer initiatives converge towards a transformative social movement. This movement upholds decentralized renewable energy production and consumption, and presents itself as a socially inclusive, transparent and participatory energy model, replicable across the globe, in what can be described as a collective action towards a decentralized democratic energy model. The discussion highlights relationships between prosumerism and framings such as energy justice (including energy poverty and gender issues), energy democracy, climate change action and anti-nuclear movements, to reach a conclusion considering the relevance of calling prosumerism a social movement, while opening up some avenues for future research.

/pdf/people-in-transitions-energy-citizenship-prosumerism-and-43zqn7bfvf.pdf

People in transitions: Energy citizenship, prosumerism and social movements in Europe

The adoption of residential photovoltaic systems (PV) is seen as an important part of the sustainable energy transition. To facilitate this process, it is crucial to identify the determinants of solar adoption. This paper follows a meta-analytical structural equation modeling approach, presenting a meta-analysis of studies on residential PV adoption intention, and assessing four behavioral models based on the theory of planned behavior to advance theory development. Of 653 initially identified studies, 110 remained for full-text screening. Only eight studies were sufficiently homogeneous, provided bivariate correlations, and could thus be integrated into the meta-analysis.The pooled correlations across primary studies revealed medium to large correlations between environmental concern, novelty seeking, perceived benefits, subjective norm and intention to adopt a residential PV system, whereas socio-demographic variables were uncorrelated with intention. Meta-analytical structural equation modeling revealed a model (N = 1,714) in which adoption intention was predicted by benefits and perceived behavioral control, and benefits in turn could be explained by environmental concern, novelty seeking, and subjective norm. Our results imply that measures should primarily focus on enhancing the perception of benefits. Based on obstacles we encountered within the analysis, we suggest guidelines to facilitate the future aggregation of scientific evidence, such as the systematic inclusion of key variables and reporting of bivariate correlations. 

/pdf/a-meta-analysis-of-residential-pv-adoption-the-important-21x529md.pdf

A meta-analysis of residential PV adoption: the important role of perceived benefits, intentions and antecedents in solar energy acceptance

The energy cultures framework was developed in 2009 to support interdisciplinary investigation into energy behaviour in New Zealand. In this paper, we discuss the framework in light of 5 years of empirical application and conceptual development. The concept of culture is helpful in seeking to better understand energy behaviour because it conveys how behaviours are embedded within the physical and social contexts of everyday life, and how they are both repetitive and heterogeneous. The framework suggests that the energy culture of a given subject (e.g. an individual, a household, a business, a sector) can be studied by examining the interrelationships between their norms, practices and material culture, and how these, in turn, are shaped by external influences. We discuss the key theoretical influences of the framework, and how the core concepts of the framework have evolved as we have applied them in different research situations. We then illustrate how we have applied the framework to a range of topics and sectors, and how it has been used to support interdisciplinary research, in identifying clusters of energy cultures, in examining energy cultures at different scales and in different sectors, and to inform policy development.

/pdf/the-energy-cultures-framework-exploring-the-role-of-norms-2ln8qfyyxt.pdf

The energy cultures framework: Exploring the role of norms, practices and material culture in shaping energy behaviour in New Zealand

Transport is a vast and complex socio-technical system, and despite a clear need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels due to undesirable environmental impacts, it is largely locked into business-as-usual. Systems approaches are a useful way to help make sense of multiple competing influences which may be simultaneously driving change and supporting the status quo. This paper applies qualitative system dynamics modelling to help interpret the results of a Delphi study into global transport transitions, involving 22 international experts in various aspects of transport. The main contribution of the paper is its exploration of the use of system dynamics (SD) modelling to interpret the Delphi findings. SD modelling was used to reveal and elucidate the causal arguments put forward by the expert panel about the factors driving business-as-usual, the factors creating barriers to more sustainable transport systems, and the drivers of change. The SD model is used to explore and expose the key causal patterns at play, and how these interact to both support and hinder change. The resulting model shows the complex, interdependent dynamics involved in supporting the status quo. Even at the relatively high level of analysis reported here, the model is useful in revealing interdependencies between parts of the system, where change in one part may well have knock-on effects elsewhere in the system. In particular the model reveals the strong reinforcing loops that act to minimise the impact of change drivers and thus retain the dominance of automobility. The result is a system that is highly dependent on the continued existence of key reinforcements such as policies that subsidise fossil fuels. From a methodological perspective, the outcomes of the Delphi study provided a rich source of qualitative material which was highly suitable for developing a system dynamics model.

/pdf/exploring-stability-and-change-in-transport-systems-3drod78w9o.pdf

Exploring stability and change in transport systems: combining Delphi and system dynamics approaches

Understanding the potential growth of EVs in the New Zealand market is of great interest to a wide range of stakeholders. Aside from the direct impact on the new and used car markets, it could also reduce NZrs dependence on oil imports, increase demand for electricity, and offer new opportunities for managing electricity demand in distribution networks. It is important for businesses, the energy sector, and national and local governments to be able to plan for EV uptake. This report provides insights into Kiwi appetite for EVs and barriers to uptake. We draw from four pieces of research undertaken as part of the GREEN Grid (GG) and Energy Cultures (EC) research projects: 1. Dr Scott carried out interviews with 23 people who have already purchased, who have a strong interest to purchase, or have rejected EVs (GG); 2. Dr Williams ran an online survey and choice modelling experiment with 2000 people (500 of whom we questioned about EVs specifically) (GG); 3. Associate Professor Wooliscroft ran a national survey of 2278 households which included questions about interest in EVs (EC); 4. Dr Rees carried out Systems Dynamics (SD) modelling using these findings and insights from transport experts to explore influences on the rate of growth of EVs in the light vehicle fleet (GG).

Keen on EVs: Kiwi perspectives on electric vehicles, and opportunities to stimulate uptake

Energy Cultures policy briefs

Emerging energy transitions: PV uptake beyond subsidies

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