Many statistical methods involve summarizing a probability distribution by a region of the sample space covering a specified probability. One method of selecting such a region is to require it to contain points of relatively high density. Highest density regions are particularly useful for displaying multimodal distributions and, in such cases, may consist of several disjoint subsets—one for each local mode. In this paper, I propose a simple method for computing a highest density region from any given (possibly multivariate) density f(x) that is bounded and continuous in x. Several examples of the use of highest density regions in statistical graphics are also given. A new form of boxplot is proposed based on highest density regions; versions in one and two dimensions are given. Highest density regions in higher dimensions are also discussed and plotted.

Computing and Graphing Highest Density Regions

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. 
We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.

Using locally polynomial regression, we develop nonparametric estimators for the conditional density function and its square root, and their partial derivatives. Two measures of sensitivity to initial conditions in nonlinear stochastic dynamic systems are proposed, one of which relates Fisher information with initial-value sensitivity in dynamical systems. We propose estimators for these, and show asymptotic normality for one of them. We further propose a simple method for choosing the bandwidth. The methods are illustrated by simulation of two well-known models in dynamical systems.

Estimation of conditional densities and sensitivity measures in nonlinear dynamical systems

Approximate Bayesian Computation is a family of likelihood-free inference techniques that are well suited to models defined in terms of a stochastic generating mechanism. In a nutshell, Approximate Bayesian Computation proceeds by computing summary statistics sobs from the data and simulating summary statistics for different values of the parameter Θ. The posterior distribution is then approximated by an estimator of the conditional density g(Θ|sobs). In this paper, we derive the asymptotic bias and variance of the standard estimators of the posterior distribution which are based on rejection sampling and linear adjustment. Additionally, we introduce an original estimator of the posterior distribution based on quadratic adjustment and we show that its bias contains a fewer number of terms than the estimator with linear adjustment. Although we find that the estimators with adjustment are not universally superior to the estimator based on rejection sampling, we find that they can achieve better performance ...

http://membres-timc.imag.fr/Michael.Blum/publications/jasablum2010.pdf

Approximate Bayesian Computation: A Nonparametric Perspective

We consider the kernel estimator of conditional density and derive its asymptotic bias, variance, and mean-square error. Optimal bandwidths (with respect to integrated mean-square error) are found and it is shown that the convergence rate of the density estimator is order n –2/3. We also note that the conditional mean function obtained from the estimator is equivalent to a kernel smoother. Given the undesirable bias properties of kernel smoothers, we seek a modified conditional density estimator that has mean equivalent to some other nonparametric regression smoother with better bias properties. It is also shown that our modified estimator has smaller mean square error than the standard estimator in some commonly occurring situations. Finally, three graphical methods for visualizing conditional density estimators are discussed and applied to a data set consisting of maximum daily temperatures in Melbourne, Australia.

Estimating and Visualizing Conditional Densities

https://www.robjhyndman.com/papers/bandwidt.pdf

Bandwidth selection for kernel conditional density estimation

We consider bandwidth selection for the kernel estimator of conditional density with one explanatory variable. Several bandwidth selection methods are derived ranging from fast rules-of-thumb which assume the underlying densities are known to relatively slow procedures which use the bootstrap. The methods are compared and a practical bandwidth selection strategy which combines the methods is proposed. The methods are compared using two simulation studies and a real data set.

Bandwidth Selection for Kernel Conditional Density Estimation

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Estimating and Visualizing Conditional Densities

Bandwidth selection for kernel conditional density estimation

Bandwidth Selection for Kernel Conditional Density Estimation