This paper develops a new public domestic debt database covering 93 low-income countries and emerging markets over 1975–2004 to estimate the growth impact of domestic debt. Moderate levels of noninflationary domestic debt, as a share of GDP and bank deposits, are found to exert a positive overall impact on economic growth. Granger-causality regressions suggest support for a variety of channels: improved monetary policy; broader financial market development; strengthened domestic institutions/accountability; and enhanced private savings and financial intermediation. There is some evidence that, above a ratio of 35 percent of bank deposits, domestic debt begins to undermine growth, lending credence to traditional crowding out and bank efficiency concerns. Importantly, the growth contribution of domestic debt is higher if it is marketable, bears positive real interest rates, and is held outside the banking system.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057%2Fimfsp.2009.24.pdf

The Role of Domestic Debt Markets in Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Low-Income Countries and Emerging Markets

We use oil price fluctuations to test the impact of transfers from wealthy OPEC nations to their poorer Muslim allies. The instrument identifies plausibly exogenous variation in foreign aid. We investigate how aid is spent by tracking its short-run effect on aggregate demand, national accounts, and balance of payments. Aid affects most components of GDP though it has no statistically identifiable impact on prices or economic growth. Much aid is consumed, primarily in the form of imported noncapital goods. Aid substitutes for domestic savings, has no effect on the financial account, and leads to unaccounted capital flight.

How Is Foreign Aid Spent? Evidence from a Natural Experiment

This document delineates a simple conceptual framework for assessing fiscal space for health and provides an illustrative roadmap for guiding such assessments. The roadmap draws on lessons learned from analyses of seven fiscal space case studies conducted over the past two years in Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Rwanda, Tonga, Uganda, and Ukraine. The document also includes a summary of the fiscal space assessments from these seven case studies. Any assessment of fiscal space typically entails an examination of whether and how a government could feasibly increase its expenditure in the short-to-medium term, and do so in a way that is consistent with a country's macroeconomic fundamentals. Although fiscal space generally refers to overall government expenditure, for a variety of reasons there has been growing demand for a framework for analyzing fiscal space specifically for the health sector. This document outlines ways in which generalized fiscal space assessments could be adapted to take a more health-sector specific perspective: what is the impact of broader macroeconomic factors on government expenditures for health? Are there sector-specific considerations that might expand the set of possible options for generating fiscal space for health? Are there country-specific examples of innovative strategies that have been successful in increasing fiscal space for health?

/pdf/assessing-public-expenditure-on-health-from-a-fiscal-space-3xvdm0lzna.pdf

Assessing public expenditure on health from a fiscal space perspective

This paper surveys the economic literature on the scaling-up of aid to Africa. It provides a checklist of issues that need to be considered when preparing a long term macroeconomic projection for a country involving the assumption of a significant increase in aid. Such scaling-up scenarios are most likely to be developed in the context of a country's efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) with the support of the international donor community. The paper stresses that when preparing a scaling-up scenario it is critical to have a detailed understanding of the likely use of additional aid flows.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/wp05179.pdf?abstractid=888048&mirid=1

The Macroeconomic Challenges of Scaling Up Aid to Africa

Over the next decade, African countries are expected to be the largest beneficiaries of increased donor aid, which is intended to improve their prospects of achieving the Millennium Development Goals. This handbook will help these countries assess the macroeconomic implications of increased aid and respond to the associated policy challenges. The handbook is directed at policymakers, practicing economists in African countries, and the staffs of international financial institutions and donor agencies who participate in preparing medium-term strategies for African countries, including in the context of poverty reduction strategy papers.It provides five main guidelines for developing "scaling up" scenarios to help countries identify important policy issues involved in using higher aid flows effectively: to absorb as much aid as possible; to boost growth in the short to medium term; to promote good governance and reduce corruption; to prepare an exit strategy for if, or when, aid levels decrease; and to regularly reassess the policy mix.

Les défis macroéconomiques de l'expansion de l'aide à l'Afrique : Repères à l'intention des praticiens

Paper prepared for a High-Level seminar hosted by the Government of Mozambique and organized by the IMF Institute and the African Department of the IMF, and co-financed by the Governments of the UK (DFID) and Germany (InWEnt). The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of any of these organizations.

/pdf/an-analytical-overview-of-aid-absorption-recognizing-and-573n5w3kt8.pdf

An Analytical Overview of Aid Absorption: Recognizing and Avoiding Macroeconomic Hazards

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An Analytical Overview of Aid Absorption: Recognizing and Avoiding Macroeconomic Hazards