Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography

Publisher Summary This chapter reviews existing research and thought on the role of group interaction in task-oriented groups, and provides suggestion that part of the difficulty in understanding the relationship between group interaction and group effectiveness has to do with the nature of existing methodological and conceptual tools. It proposes an alternative framework for research on group effectiveness. The major functions group interaction serves in enhancing and depressing group effectiveness have been explored in the chapter and a set of strategies for influencing group interaction and group performance by alteration of “input” factors has been proposed within the new framework. The chapter presents an argument for a return to action-oriented research as a way to improve simultaneously the understanding of the determinants of group effectiveness and the capability to change and improve it. Implications for research and for action have been drawn and explored.

Group tasks, group interaction process, and group performance effectiveness: A review and proposed integration

A selective review of research highlights the emerging view of groups as information processors. In this review, the authors include research on processing objectives, attention, encoding, storage, retrieval, processing, response, feedback, and learning in small interacting task groups. The groups as information processors perspective underscores several characteristic dimensions of variability in group performance of cognitive tasks, namely, commonality-uniqueness of information, convergence-diversity of ideas, accentuation-attenuation of cognitive processes, and belongingness-distinctiveness of members. A combination of contributions framework provides an additional conceptualization of information processing in groups. The authors also address implications, caveats, and questions for future research and theory regarding groups as information processors.

The Emerging Conceptualization of Groups as Information Processors

Social groups can be remarkably smart and knowledgeable when their averaged judgements are compared with the judgements of individuals. Already Galton [Galton F (1907) Nature 75:7] found evidence that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than estimates of experts. This wisdom of crowd effect was recently supported by examples from stock markets, political elections, and quiz shows [Surowiecki J (2004) The Wisdom of Crowds]. In contrast, we demonstrate by experimental evidence (N = 144) that even mild social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect in simple estimation tasks. In the experiment, subjects could reconsider their response to factual questions after having received average or full information of the responses of other subjects. We compare subjects’ convergence of estimates and improvements in accuracy over five consecutive estimation periods with a control condition, in which no information about others’ responses was provided. Although groups are initially “wise,” knowledge about estimates of others narrows the diversity of opinions to such an extent that it undermines the wisdom of crowd effect in three different ways. The “social influence effect” diminishes the diversity of the crowd without improvements of its collective error. The “range reduction effect” moves the position of the truth to peripheral regions of the range of estimates so that the crowd becomes less reliable in providing expertise for external observers. The “confidence effect” boosts individuals’ confidence after convergence of their estimates despite lack of improved accuracy. Examples of the revealed mechanism range from misled elites to the recent global financial crisis.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/108/22/9020.full.pdf

How social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect

The cohesiveness of small groups is defined in terms of intermember attraction and the rationale for such an approach is discussed. The empirical literature, restricted primarily to investigations published between 1950 and 1962, is reviewed with the aim of evaluating the status of variables hypothesized as having antecedent or consequent relationships with interpersonal attraction. To this end, studies from diverse fields, for example, group dynamics, personality, and learning, are brought together and categorized. Theoretical positions concerned with the development of liking between persons and the effects which liking has upon subsequent behavior are also examined by specifying predictions from systematic formulations and comparing them with the research data. The major intent of this paper is to document relationships which have been clearly established and to identify those which are still equivocal or unexplored.

Group cohesiveness as interpersonal attraction: a review of relationships with antecedent and consequent variables.

A survey of studies contrasting the quality of group performance and individual performance, 1920-1957.

The Relative Quality of Decisions Written by Individuals and by Groups as the Available Time for Problem Solving is Increased

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A survey of studies contrasting the quality of group performance and individual performance, 1920-1957.

The Relative Quality of Decisions Written by Individuals and by Groups as the Available Time for Problem Solving is Increased