The theory of precautionary saving is shown in this paper to be isomorphic to the Arrow-Pratt theory of risk aversion, making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving, and more generally, to the theory of optimal choice under risk In particular, a measure of the strength of precautionary saving motive analogous to the Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion is used to establish a number of new propositions about precautionary saving, and to give a new interpretation of the Oreze-Modigliani substitution effect

Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large

Decisions Under Uncertainty: Drilling Decisions by Oil and Gas Operators.

A reservoir is the result of geologic processes and is not randomly generated. However, many uncertainties exist in reservoir characterization because of subsurface complexity and limited data. Uncertainties can be mitigated by gaining more information and/or using better science and technology. How much uncertainties should be mitigated depends on the needs of decision analysis for reservoir management and the cost of information. Uncertainty analysis should be conducted for investigational analyses and for decision analysis under uncertainty and risk. To know what needs to be known and what can be known should be the main focal points of uncertainty analysis in reservoir characterization and management.

Uncertainty Analysis in Reservoir Characterization and Management: How Much Should We Know About What We Don't Know?

/pdf/on-the-futility-of-estimating-utility-functions-why-the-4et65l8804.pdf

On the futility of estimating utility functions: Why the parameters we measure are wrong, and why they do not generalize

Many analyses conducted to inform security decisions depend on estimates of the conditional probabilities of different attack alternatives. These probabilities are difficult to estimate since analysts have limited access to the adversary and limited knowledge of the adversary's utility function, so subject matter experts often provide the estimates through direct elicitation. In this article, we describe a method of using uncertainty in utility function value tradeoffs to model the adversary's decision process and solve for the conditional probabilities of different attacks in closed form. The conditional probabilities are suitable to be used as inputs to probabilistic risk assessments and other decision support techniques. The process we describe is an extension of value-focused thinking and is broadly applicable, including in general business decision making. We demonstrate the use of this technique with simple examples. Language: en

Estimating Conditional Probabilities of Terrorist Attacks: Modeling Adversaries with Uncertain Value Tradeoffs

Advances in Decision Analysis: Utility and Risk Preferences

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Advances in Decision Analysis: Utility and Risk Preferences