The goal of the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) project is to collect the historical tropical cyclone best-track data from all available Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMCs) and other agencies, combine the disparate datasets into one product, and disseminate in formats used by the tropical cyclone community Each RSMC forecasts and monitors storms for a specific region and annually archives best-track data, which consist of information on a storm's position, intensity, and other related parameters IBTrACS is a new dataset based on the best-track data from numerous sources Moreover, rather than preferentially selecting one track and intensity for each storm, the mean position, the original intensities from the agencies, and summary statistics are provided This article discusses the dataset construction, explores the tropical cyclone climatology from IBTrACS, and concludes with an analysis of uncertainty in the tropical cyclone intensity record

The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS)Unifying Tropical Cyclone Data

Since the Eighth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-8), held in December 2014, progress has been made in our understanding of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics, climate and climate change. New analysis of observations has revealed trends in the latitude of maximum TC intensity and in TC translation speed. Climate models are demonstrating an increasing ability to simulate the observed TC climatology and its regional variations. The limited representation of air-sea interaction processes in most climate simulations of TCs remains an issue. Consensus projections of future TC behavior continue to indicate decreases in TC numbers, increases in their maximum intensities and increases in TC-related rainfall. Future sea level rise will exacerbate the impact of storm surge on coastal regions, assuming all other factors equal. Studies have also begun to estimate the effect on TCs of the climate change that has occurred to date. Recommendations are made regarding future research directions.

Tropical cyclones and climate change

Recent research has strengthened the understanding of the links between climate and tropical cyclones (TCs) on various timescales Geological records of past climates have shown century-long variations in TC numbers While no significant trends have been identified in the Atlantic since the late 19th century, significant observed trends in TC numbers and intensities have occurred in this basin over the past few decades, and trends in other basins are increasingly being identified However, understanding of the causes of these trends is incomplete, and confidence in these trends continues to be hampered by a lack of consistent observations in some basins A theoretical basis for maximum TC intensity appears now to be well established, but a climate theory of TC formation remains elusive Climate models mostly continue to predict future decreases in global TC numbers, projected increases in the intensities of the strongest storms and increased rainfall rates Sea level rise will likely contribute toward increased storm surge risk Against the background of global climate change and sea level rise, it is important to carry out quantitative assessments on the potential risk of TC-induced storm surge and flooding to densely populated cities and river deltas Several climate models are now able to generate a good distribution of both TC numbers and intensities in the current climate Inconsistent TC projection results emerge from modeling studies due to different downscaling methodologies and warming scenarios, inconsistencies in projected changes of large-scale conditions, and differences in model physics and tracking algorithms WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:65–89 doi: 101002/wcc371

For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website

/pdf/tropical-cyclones-and-climate-change-3hw75muhas.pdf

“Best tracks” are National Hurricane Center (NHC) poststorm analyses of the intensity, central pressure, position, and size of Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basin tropical and subtropical cyclones. This paper estimates the uncertainty (average error) for Atlantic basin best track parameters through a survey of the NHC Hurricane Specialists who maintain and update the Atlantic hurricane database. A comparison is then made with a survey conducted over a decade ago to qualitatively assess changes in the uncertainties. Finally, the implications of the uncertainty estimates for NHC analysis and forecast products as well as for the prediction goals of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program are discussed.

Atlantic Hurricane Database Uncertainty and Presentation of a New Database Format

Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change

A reanalysis of the Atlantic basin tropical storm and hurricane database (“best track”) for the period from 1921 to 1930 has been completed This reassessment of the main archive for tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico was necessary to correct systematic biases and random errors in the data as well as to search for previously unrecognized systems The methodology for the reanalysis process for revising the track and intensity of tropical cyclone data has been detailed in a previous paper on the reanalysis The 1921–30 dataset now includes several new tropical cyclones, excludes one system previously considered a tropical storm, makes generally large alterations in the intensity estimates of most tropical cyclones (both toward stronger and weaker intensities), and typically adjusts existing tracks with minor corrections Average uncertainty in intensity and track values is estimated for both open-ocean conditions as well as landfalling systems Highlight

A Reanalysis of the 1921–30 Atlantic Hurricane Database*

A reanalysis of the Atlantic basin tropical storm and hurricane database (“best track”) for the period from 1931 to 1943 has been completed as part of the Atlantic Hurricane Database Reanalysis Project. This reassessment of the main archive for tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico was necessary to correct systematic biases and random errors in the data as well as to search for previously unrecognized systems. Methodology for the reanalysis process for revising the track and intensity of tropical cyclone data is largely unchanged from that of the preceding couple of decades and has been detailed in a previous paper on the reanalysis. Accurate Environmental Forecasting’s numerical weather prediction-based wind field model was utilized here to help determine which states were impacted by various hurricane force winds in several U.S. landfalling major hurricanes during this era. The 1931–43 dataset now includes 23 new tropical cyclones, excludes five systems...

/pdf/a-reanalysis-of-the-1931-43-atlantic-hurricane-database-1qus3qb5jb.pdf

A Reanalysis of the 1931–43 Atlantic Hurricane Database*

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A Reanalysis of the 1921–30 Atlantic Hurricane Database*

A Reanalysis of the 1931–43 Atlantic Hurricane Database*