Research results on the effects of land cover change on water resources vary greatly and the topic remains controversial. Here we use published data worldwide to examine the validity of Fuh's equation, which relates annual water yield (R) to a wetness index (precipitation/potential evapotranspiration; P/PET) and watershed characteristics (m). We identify two critical values at P/PET=1 and m=2. m plays a more important role than P/PET when m 2. When P/PET 1, suggesting that any land cover changes in non-humid regions (P/PET<1) or in watersheds of low water retention capacity (m<2) can lead to greater hydrological responses. m significantly correlates with forest coverage, watershed slope and watershed area. This global pattern has far-reaching significance in studying and managing hydrological responses to land cover and climate changes.

/pdf/global-pattern-for-the-effect-of-climate-and-land-cover-on-hrrkyllwyv.pdf

Global pattern for the effect of climate and land cover on water yield

A global review on hydrological responses to forest change across multiple spatial scales: Importance of scale, climate, forest type and hydrological regime

Forest restoration is being scaled up globally to deliver critical ecosystem services and biodiversity benefits; however, there is a lack of rigorous comparison of cobenefit delivery across different restoration approaches. Through global synthesis, we used 25,950 matched data pairs from 264 studies in 53 countries to assess how delivery of climate, soil, water, and wood production services, in addition to biodiversity, compares across a range of tree plantations and native forests. Benefits of aboveground carbon storage, water provisioning, and especially soil erosion control and biodiversity are better delivered by native forests, with compositionally simpler, younger plantations in drier regions performing particularly poorly. However, plantations exhibit an advantage in wood production. These results underscore important trade-offs among environmental and production goals that policy-makers must navigate in meeting forest restoration commitments. Description Benefits of forest restoration Reforestation is promoted globally as one way to mitigate climate change through the storage of carbon in woody growth and ecosystem services such as control of soil erosion and management of water supplies. Hua et al. assessed the relative performance of plantation and native forest in achieving these goals (see the Perspective by Gurevitch). Synthesizing data from the world’s major forest biomes, they found that native forests consistently delivered better performance than plantations in the provision of the three major ecosystem services, with additional benefits for biodiversity. The discrepancy was particularly marked in in warmer and drier regions. These findings show that the benefits of reforestation will be best achieved through the restoration of native forests rather than extensive plantation programs. —AMS Critical ecosystem services and biodiversity are typically delivered more effectively by native forests than by plantations.

/pdf/the-biodiversity-and-ecosystem-service-contributions-and-356b1dc9.pdf

The biodiversity and ecosystem service contributions and trade-offs of forest restoration approaches

Declining mountain snowpack and earlier snowmelt across the western United States has implications for downstream communities. We present a possible mechanism linking snowmelt rate and streamflow generation using a gridded implementation of the Budyko framework. We computed an ensemble of Budyko streamflow anomalies (BSA) using Variable Infiltration Capacity model-simulated evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration, and estimated precipitation at 1/16° resolution from 1950-2013. BSA was correlated with simulated baseflow efficiency (r2 = 0.64) and simulated snowmelt rate (r2 = 0.42). The strong correlation between snowmelt rate and baseflow efficiency (r2 = 0.73) links these relationships and supports a possible streamflow generation mechanism wherein greater snowmelt rates increase subsurface flow. Rapid snowmelt may thus bring the soil to field capacity, facilitating below-root-zone percolation, streamflow, and a positive BSA. Previous works have shown that future increases in regional air temperature may lead to earlier, slower snowmelt, and hence, decreased streamflow production via the mechanism proposed by this work.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2016GL069690

Snowmelt rate dictates streamflow

. Since the 1950s, Europe has undergone large shifts in climate and land cover. Previous assessments of past and future changes in evapotranspiration or streamflow have either focussed on land use/cover or climate contributions or on individual catchments under specific climate conditions, but not on all aspects at larger scales. Here, we aim to understand how decadal changes in climate (e.g. precipitation, temperature) and land use (e.g. deforestation/afforestation, urbanization) have impacted the amount and distribution of water resource availability (both evapotranspiration and streamflow) across Europe since the 1950s. To this end, we simulate the distribution of average evapotranspiration and streamflow at high resolution (1 km 2 ) by combining (a) a steady-state Budyko model for water balance partitioning constrained by long-term (lysimeter) observations across different land use types, (b) a novel decadal high-resolution historical land use reconstruction, and (c) gridded observations of key meteorological variables. The continental-scale patterns in the simulations agree well with coarser-scale observation-based estimates of evapotranspiration and also with observed changes in streamflow from small basins across Europe. We find that strong shifts in the continental-scale patterns of evapotranspiration and streamflow have occurred between the period around 1960 and 2010. In much of central-western Europe, our results show an increase in evapotranspiration of the order of 5 %–15 % between 1955–1965 and 2005–2015, whereas much of the Scandinavian peninsula shows increases exceeding 15 %. The Iberian Peninsula and other parts of the Mediterranean show a decrease of the order of 5 %–15 %. A similar north–south gradient was found for changes in streamflow, although changes in central-western Europe were generally small. Strong decreases and increases exceeding 45 % were found in parts of the Iberian and Scandinavian peninsulas, respectively. In Sweden, for example, increased precipitation is a larger driver than large-scale reforestation and afforestation, leading to increases in both streamflow and evapotranspiration. In most of the Mediterranean, decreased precipitation combines with increased forest cover and potential evapotranspiration to reduce streamflow. In spite of considerable local- and regional-scale complexity, the response of net actual evapotranspiration to changes in land use, precipitation, and potential evaporation is remarkably uniform across Europe, increasing by ∼  35–60 km 3  yr −1 , equivalent to the discharge of a large river. For streamflow, effects of changes in precipitation ( ∼  95 km 3  yr −1 ) dominate land use and potential evapotranspiration contributions ( ∼  45–60 km 3  yr −1 ). Locally, increased forest cover, forest stand age, and urbanization have led to significant decreases and increases in available streamflow, even in catchments that are considered to be near-natural.

/pdf/climate-change-reforestation-afforestation-and-urbanization-4jjnxqmz0e.pdf

Climate change, reforestation/afforestation, and urbanization impacts on evapotranspiration and streamflow in Europe.

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment's change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period – a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of interannual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to interannual variation in the EI – high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., nonresilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to climate warming than the more diverse mixed forest catchments.

/pdf/changing-forest-water-yields-in-response-to-climate-warming-4z44w0kdjc.pdf

Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long‐term experimental watershed sites across North America

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Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long‐term experimental watershed sites across North America