Drought is a complex natural hazard that impacts ecosystems and society in many ways. Many of these impacts are associated with hydrological drought (drought in rivers, lakes, and groundwater). It is, therefore, crucial to understand the development and recovery of hydrological drought. In this review an overview is given of the current state of scientific knowledge of definitions, processes, and quantification of hydrological drought. Special attention is given to the influence of climate and terrestrial properties (geology, land use) on hydrological drought characteristics and the role of storage. Furthermore, the current debate about the use and usefulness of different drought indicators is highlighted and recent advances in drought monitoring and prediction are mentioned. Research on projections of hydrological drought for the future is summarized. This review also briefly touches upon the link of hydrological drought characteristics with impacts and the issues related to drought management. Finally, four challenges for future research on hydrological drought are defined that relate international initiatives such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the ‘Panta Rhei’ decade of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS). WIREs Water 2015, 2:359–392. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1085

For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

/pdf/hydrological-drought-explained-22b5t1sxan.pdf

Hydrological drought explained

Droughts occur naturally, but climate change has generally accelerated the hydrological processes to make them set in quicker and become more intense, with many consequences, not the least of which is increased wildfire risk. There are different types of drought being studied, such as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic droughts; however, a lack of unanimous definition complicates drought study. Drought indices are used as proxies to track and quantify droughts; therefore, accurate formulation of robust drought indices is important to investigate drought characteristics under the warming climate. Because different drought indices show different degrees of sensitivity to the same level of continental warming, robustness of drought indices against change in temperature and other variables should be prioritized. A formulation of drought indices without considering the factors that govern the background state may lead to drought artifacts under a warming climate. Consideration of downscaling techniques, availability of climate data, estimation of potential evapotranspiration (PET), baseline period, non-stationary climate information, and anthropogenic forcing can be additional challenges for a reliable drought assessment under climate change. As one formulation of PET based on temperatures can lead to overestimation of future drying, estimation of PET based on the energy budget framework can be a better approach compared to only temperature-based equations. Although the performance of drought indicators can be improved by incorporating reliable soil moisture estimates, a challenge arises due to limited reliable observed data for verification. Moreover, the uncertainties associated with meteorological forcings in hydrological models can lead to unreliable soil moisture estimates under climate change scenarios.

Climate Change and Drought: a Perspective on Drought Indices

Hydrological drought severity explained by climate and catchment characteristics

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2016RG000549

Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects

. Drought monitoring and early warning (M & EW) systems are a crucial component of drought preparedness. M & EW systems typically make use of drought indicators such as the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), but such indicators are not widely used in the UK. More generally, such tools have not been well developed for hydrological (i.e. streamflow) drought. To fill these research gaps, this paper characterises meteorological and hydrological droughts, and the propagation from one to the other, using the SPI and the related Standardised Streamflow Index (SSI), with the objective of improving understanding of the drought hazard in the UK. SPI and SSI time series were calculated for 121 near-natural catchments in the UK for accumulation periods of 1–24 months. From these time series, drought events were identified and for each event, the duration and severity were calculated. The relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought was examined by cross-correlating the 1-month SSI with various SPI accumulation periods. Finally, the influence of climate and catchment properties on the hydrological drought characteristics and propagation was investigated. Results showed that at short accumulation periods meteorological drought characteristics showed little spatial variability, whilst hydrological drought characteristics showed fewer but longer and more severe droughts in the south and east than in the north and west of the UK. Propagation characteristics showed a similar spatial pattern with catchments underlain by productive aquifers, mostly in the south and east, having longer SPI accumulation periods strongly correlated with the 1-month SSI. For catchments in the north and west of the UK, which typically have little catchment storage, standard-period average annual rainfall was strongly correlated with hydrological drought and propagation characteristics. However, in the south and east, catchment properties describing storage (such as base flow index, the percentage of highly productive fractured rock and typical soil wetness) were more influential on hydrological drought characteristics. This knowledge forms a basis for more informed application of standardised indicators in the UK in the future, which could aid in the development of improved M & EW systems. Given the lack of studies applying standardised indicators to hydrological droughts, and the diversity of catchment types encompassed here, the findings could prove valuable for enhancing the hydrological aspects of drought M & EW systems in both the UK and elsewhere.

/pdf/from-meteorological-to-hydrological-drought-using-g4expfvwz5.pdf

From meteorological to hydrological drought using standardised indicators

In this paper, we perform a detailed regional analysis of the link between meteorological drought indices and streamflow for a comprehensive Austrian data set of 47 small to medium-size catchments in humid-temperate climate. Four drought indices considering different components of the catchment water balance are tested. We assess the quality of the link using rank correlation analysis, and the probability of detecting low-flow events by hit-scores. Overall, correlations range between 0.4 and 0.8 and differ significantly between regions. A stratified analysis shows that the link is much stronger (i) for summer low flows and droughts than for anomalies in general, and (ii) for more humid than more arid conditions. Under more humid conditions streamflow droughts of small to medium-size catchments are to a large extent generated by climate forcing and therefore well represented by a simple meteorological index. Under increasingly dry conditions, the climate signal gets less predictive, and storage properties of the underground become more important. A simple soil moisture accounting scheme (such as those of the Palmer index) can considerably improve the correlations. Overall, we conclude there is a significant link between meteorological drought and streamflow drought, except for catchments where groundwater storage and snow processes are important. The results are encouraging and provide a wealth of information which can profitably be used to set up statistical prediction models to estimate low flows from meteorological time series.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2013WR015051

Exploring the link between meteorological drought and streamflow: Effects of climate-catchment interaction

Data evaluation is a crucial step when it comes to the determination of accurate and precise isotope ratios computed from transient signals measured by multi-collector-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-ICPMS) coupled to, for example, laser ablation (LA). In the present study, the applicability of different data evaluation strategies (i.e. 'point-by-point', 'integration' and 'linear regression slope' method) for the computation of (235)U/(238)U isotope ratios measured in single particles by LA-MC-ICPMS was investigated. The analyzed uranium oxide particles (i.e. 9073-01-B, CRM U010 and NUSIMEP-7 test samples), having sizes down to the sub-micrometre range, are certified with respect to their (235)U/(238)U isotopic signature, which enabled evaluation of the applied strategies with respect to precision and accuracy. The different strategies were also compared with respect to their expanded uncertainties. Even though the 'point-by-point' method proved to be superior, the other methods are advantageous, as they take weighted signal intensities into account. For the first time, the use of a 'finite mixture model' is presented for the determination of an unknown number of different U isotopic compositions of single particles present on the same planchet. The model uses an algorithm that determines the number of isotopic signatures by attributing individual data points to computed clusters. The (235)U/(238)U isotope ratios are then determined by means of the slopes of linear regressions estimated for each cluster. The model was successfully applied for the accurate determination of different (235)U/(238)U isotope ratios of particles deposited on the NUSIMEP-7 test samples.

/pdf/evaluation-strategies-for-isotope-ratio-measurements-of-49c6te71y7.pdf

Evaluation strategies for isotope ratio measurements of single particles by LA-MC-ICPMS

. The objective of this paper is to present a framework for assessing climate impacts on future low flows that combines different sources of information, termed pillars. To illustrate the framework three pillars are chosen: (a) extrapolation of observed low-flow trends into the future, (b) rainfall–runoff projections based on climate scenarios and (c) extrapolation of changing stochastic rainfall characteristics into the future combined with rainfall–runoff modelling. Alternative pillars could be included in the overall framework. The three pillars are combined by expert judgement based on a synoptic view of data, model outputs and process reasoning. The consistency/inconsistency between the pillars is considered an indicator of the certainty/uncertainty of the projections. The viability of the framework is illustrated for four example catchments from Austria that represent typical climate conditions in central Europe. In the Alpine region where winter low flows dominate, trend projections and climate scenarios yield consistently increasing low flows, although of different magnitudes. In the region north of the Alps, consistently small changes are projected by all methods. In the regions in the south and south-east, more pronounced and mostly decreasing trends are projected but there is disagreement in the magnitudes of the projected changes. The process reasons for the consistencies/inconsistencies are discussed. For an Alpine region such as Austria the key to understanding low flows is whether they are controlled by freezing and snowmelt processes, or by the summer moisture deficit associated with evaporation. It is argued that the three-pillar approach offers a systematic framework of combining different sources of information aimed at more robust projections than that obtained from each pillar alone.

/pdf/a-three-pillar-approach-to-assessing-climate-impacts-on-low-27g9x7r6sq.pdf

A three-pillar approach to assessing climate impacts on low flows

LFSTAT - Low-Flow Analysis in R

LFSTAT - An R-Package for Low-Flow Analysis

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