This article proposes a methodology to objectively evaluate each of key elements universally accepted as constituents of an early warning system. This methodology was then applied to assess two disasters in the municipality of Petrópolis, Brazil. These disasters were separated by 11 years, during which time several actions for disaster risk reduction were implemented in the country. These disasters had significantly different impacts. The results show that, despite the implementation of public actions, it is the actual and permanent vulnerability that is associated with the impact. Additionally, for the first time, the claimed disaster risk equation is considered with mathematical rigor, and, like a theorem, it is possible to show that vulnerability is the crucial element of the disaster impact. 

Proposing a metric to evaluate early warning system applicable to hydrometeorological disasters in Brazil

Climate change will result in more intense and more frequent weather and climate events that will continue to cause fatalities, economic damages and other adverse societal impacts worldwide. To mitigate these consequences and to support better informed decisions and improved actions and responses, many National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) are discussing how to provide services on weather and climate impacts as part of their operational routines. The authors outline how a risk framework can support the development of these services by NMHSs. In addition to the hazard information, a risk perspective considers the propensity for a given hazard to inflict adverse consequences on society and environment, and attempts to quantify the uncertainties involved. The relevant strategic, methodological and technical steps are summarized and recommendations for the development of impact-related services are provided. Specifically, we propose that NMHSs adopt an integrated risk framework that incorporates a hazard-exposure-vulnerability model into operational services. Such a framework integrates all existing forecast and impact services, including the underlying impact models, and allows for flexible future extensions driven by the evolving collaboration with partners, stakeholders and users. Thereby, this paper attempts to unify existing work streams on impact-related services from different spatial and temporal scales (weather, climate) and disciplines (hydrology, meteorology, economics, social sciences) and to propose a harmonized approach that can create synergies within and across NMHSs to further develop and enhance risk-based services.

How to provide actionable information on weather and climate impacts?–A summary of strategic, methodological, and technical perspectives

Loss and damage databases are essential tools within the disaster risk management cycle for making informed decisions. However, even in data-rich countries such as Austria, no consistent and curated multi-hazard database is available. Based on the requirements of the United Nations, the European Union, as well as on national demands to deal with disaster impacts, we conceived and set up a demonstrator for a consistent multi-hazard national event-based loss and damage database that addresses event identification, loss accounting and disaster forensics according to international standards. We built our database on already existing data from administration and federal agencies and formulated a process to combine those data in a synergetic way. Furthermore, we tested how earth observation and weather data could help to derive more robust disaster event information. Our demonstrator focuses on two Austrian federal provinces, three hazard types—floods, storms and mass movements—and the period between 2005 and 2018. By analyzing over 140.000 single event descriptions, we conclude that—despite some limitations in retrospective data harmonization—the implementation of a curated event-based national loss and damage database is feasible and adds significant value compared to the usage of single national datasets or existing international databases such as EM-DAT or the Risk Data Hub. With our demonstrator, we are able to support the national risk assessment, the national Sendai Monitoring and federal disaster risk management with the provision of best possible harmonized loss and damage information, tailored indicators and statistics as well as hazard impact maps on the municipality scale.

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/12/8/283/pdf?version=1658490978

Collection, Standardization and Attribution of Robust Disaster Event Information—A Demonstrator of a National Event-Based Loss and Damage Database in Austria

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Collection, Standardization and Attribution of Robust Disaster Event Information—A Demonstrator of a National Event-Based Loss and Damage Database in Austria