https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736%2815%2960854-6.pdf?code=lancet-site

Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health

Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures.

/pdf/assessing-flood-risk-at-the-global-scale-model-setup-results-4ewvwfp0vf.pdf

Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

Previous global analyses projected shifts in species distributions and maximum fisheries catch potential across ocean basins by 2050 under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B. However, these studies did not account for the effects of changes in ocean biogeochemistry and phytoplankton community structure that affect fish and invertebrate distribution and productivity. This paper uses a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model that incorporates these factors to project distribution and maximum catch potential of 120 species of exploited demersal fish and invertebrates in the Northeast Atlantic. Using projections from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model (ESM2.1) under the SRES A1B, we project an average rate of distribution-centroid shift of 52 km decade 21 northwards and 5.1 m decade 21 deeper from 2005 to 2050. Ocean acidification and reduction in oxygen content reduce growth performance, increase the rate of range shift, and lower the estimated catch potentials (10-year average of 2050 relative to 2005) by 20 –30% relative to simulations without considering these factors. Consideration of phytoplankton community structure may further reduce projected catch potentials by � 10%. These results highlight the sensitivity of marine ecosystems to biogeochemical changes and the need to incorporate likely hypotheses of their biological and ecological effects in assessing climate change impacts.

/pdf/integrating-ecophysiology-and-plankton-dynamics-into-484twq5zuv.pdf

Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic

This paper provides a holistic literature review of climate change and variability in Ghana by examining the impact and projections of climate change and variability in various sectors (agricultural, health and energy) and its implication on ecology, land use, poverty and welfare. The findings suggest that there is a projected high temperature and low rainfall in the years 2020, 2050 and 2080, and desertification is estimated to be proceeding at a rate of 20,000 hectares per annum. Sea-surface temperatures will increase in Ghana’s waters and this will have drastic effects on fishery. There will be a reduction in the suitability of weather within the current cocoa-growing areas in Ghana by 2050 and an increase evapotranspiration of the cocoa trees. Furthermore, rice and rooted crops (especially cassava) production are expected to be low. Hydropower generation is also at risk and there will be an increase in the incidence rate of measles, diarrheal cases, guinea worm infestation, malaria, cholera, cerebro-spinal meningitis and other water related diseases due to the current climate projections and variability. These negative impacts of climate change and variability worsens the plight of the poor, who are mostly women and children.

Climate Change and Variability in Ghana: Stocktaking

This paper integrates information on climate-change, hydrodynamic models, and geographic overlays to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas in Bangladesh to larger storm surges and sea-level rise (SLR) by 2050. The approach identifies polders, coastal populations, settlements, infrastructure, and economic activity at risk of inundation, and estimates the damage from storm surge inundation versus the cost of several adaptation measures. A 27-centimetre SLR and 10% intensification of wind speed resulting from global warming suggest that the vulnerable zone increases in size by 69% given a +3-metre inundation depth, and by 14% given a +1-metre inundation depth. Estimates indicate investments including strengthening polders, foreshore afforestation, additional multi-purpose cyclone shelters, cyclone-resistant private housing, and further strengthening of the early warning and evacuation system would cost more than $2.4 billion, with an annual recurrent cost of more than $50 million. These estimates can ser...

/pdf/cyclones-in-a-changing-climate-the-case-of-bangladesh-gx3w5iqmhe.pdf

Cyclones in a changing climate: the case of Bangladesh

/pdf/the-costs-to-developing-countries-of-adapting-to-climate-17p883p4d9.pdf

The Costs to Developing Countries of Adapting to Climate Change. New Methods and Estimates.

This study is being conducted by a partnership of the World Bank; the governments of the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Switzerland; and the participating case study countries. The World Bank is leading the technical aspects of the study. The governments of the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Switzerland are funding the study. This report is not a formal publication of the World Bank or the study partners. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the World Bank or the other study partners. Abstract The proposed methodology begins with a consistent downscaling of projected climatic changes from a multiplicity of General Circulation to local levels. Subsets of the suite of downscaled climatic factors are then to be used to estimate the vector of impacts on key economic sectors of each country, using sector-specific impact assessment models. Based on this information, alternative government adaptation projects will be specified and optimally chosen subject to a government budget constraint. Thereafter, direct impacts of climate change will serve as inputs into a macroeconomic framework to examine the indirect intersectoral impacts of climate change as well as adaption strategies. Finally, at each step the analysis will be complemented with perspectives and insights of people whose livelihoods are being or will be affected by changes in climate. Impacts of the climate change and the benefits of specific adaptation measures will be examined in the context of sub-populations defined by livelihood profiles. Local-level analysis of past and present autonomous adaptation measures for a range of groups stratified by sets of livelihood profiles will be conducted using participatory rural appraisal based primary fieldwork in addition to holding participatory workshops and consultations.

The economics of adaptation to climate change. Methodology Report

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The Costs to Developing Countries of Adapting to Climate Change. New Methods and Estimates.

The economics of adaptation to climate change. Methodology Report