To enter widespread use, ecosystem service assessments need to be quantifiable, replicable, credible, flexible, and affordable. With recent growth in the field of ecosystem services, a variety of decision-support tools has emerged to support more systematic ecosystem services assessment. Despite the growing complexity of the tool landscape, thorough reviews of tools for identifying, assessing, modeling and in some cases monetarily valuing ecosystem services have generally been lacking. In this study, we describe 17 ecosystem services tools and rate their performance against eight evaluative criteria that gauge their readiness for widespread application in public- and private-sector decision making. We describe each of the tools′ intended uses, services modeled, analytical approaches, data requirements, and outputs, as well time requirements to run seven tools in a first comparative concurrent application of multiple tools to a common location – the San Pedro River watershed in southeast Arizona, USA, and northern Sonora, Mexico. Based on this work, we offer conclusions about these tools′ current ‘readiness’ for widespread application within both public- and private-sector decision making processes. Finally, we describe potential pathways forward to reduce the resource requirements for running ecosystem services models, which are essential to facilitate their more widespread use in environmental decision making.

https://anth.umd.edu/sites/anth.umd.edu/files/Bagstad%20et%20al.%20-%20A%20comparative%20assessment%20of%20decision-support%20tools%20-%202013.pdf

A comparative assessment of decision-support tools for ecosystem services quantification and valuation

This paper updates and builds on 'Modelling with Stakeholders' Voinov and Bousquet, 2010 which demonstrated the importance of, and demand for, stakeholder participation in resource and environmental modelling. This position paper returns to the concepts of that publication and reviews the progress made since 2010. A new development is the wide introduction and acceptance of social media and web applications, which dramatically changes the context and scale of stakeholder interactions and participation. Technology advances make it easier to incorporate information in interactive formats via visualization and games to augment participatory experiences. Citizens as stakeholders are increasingly demanding to be engaged in planning decisions that affect them and their communities, at scales from local to global. How people interact with and access models and data is rapidly evolving. In turn, this requires changes in how models are built, packaged, and disseminated: citizens are less in awe of experts and external authorities, and they are increasingly aware of their own capabilities to provide inputs to planning processes, including models. The continued acceleration of environmental degradation and natural resource depletion accompanies these societal changes, even as there is a growing acceptance of the need to transition to alternative, possibly very different, life styles. Substantive transitions cannot occur without significant changes in human behaviour and perceptions. The important and diverse roles that models can play in guiding human behaviour, and in disseminating and increasing societal knowledge, are a feature of stakeholder processes today. Display Omitted Participatory modelling has become mainstream in resource and environmental management.We review recent contributions to participatory environmental modelling to identify the tools, methods and processes applied.Global internet connectivity, social media and crowdsourcing create opportunities for participatory modelling.We suggest structured mechanisms to examine and account for human biases and beliefs in participatory modelling.Advanced visualization tools, gaming, and virtual environments improve communication with stakeholders.

Modelling with stakeholders - Next generation

https://eld-initiative.org/fileadmin/pdf/2016_Turner_AgESmodeling.pdf

A review of methods, data, and models to assess changes in the value of ecosystem services from land degradation and restoration

Integrated assessment and its inherent platform, integrated modelling, present an opportunity to synthesize diverse knowledge, data, methods and perspectives into an overarching framework to address complex environmental problems. However to be successful for assessment or decision making purposes, all salient dimensions of integrated modelling must be addressed with respect to its purpose and context. The key dimensions include: issues of concern; management options and governance arrangements; stakeholders; natural systems; human systems; spatial scales; temporal scales; disciplines; methods, models, tools and data; and sources and types of uncertainty. This paper aims to shed light on these ten dimensions, and how integration of the dimensions fits in the four main phases in the integrated assessment process: scoping, problem framing and formulation, assessing options, and communicating findings. We provide examples of participatory processes and modelling tools that can be used to achieve integration. This is an overview on integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) for environmental problems.We examine the ten key dimensions of integration in IAM including what is being integrated, why and how.We discuss how the integration dimensions fit into the IAM process.

/pdf/integrated-assessment-and-modelling-3u0m15ggfj.pdf

Integrated assessment and modelling

We employ spatially-explicit uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to examine the robustness of land suitability evaluation. We use Monte Carlo simulation to sweep through criteria weight space, where weights are expressed using probability distributions. Multiple output suitability maps are generated and summarized using: an average suitability map, a standard deviation uncertainty map, and a number of sensitivity maps. We demonstrate how these surfaces help detect critical regions of suitability on the example of habitat suitability evaluation for a wetland plant. Areas of high average suitability and low uncertainty signify robust suitability sites, whereas high average suitability and high uncertainty characterize candidate areas. These candidate areas are potentially suitable but need further examination with variance-based sensitivity analysis, in which the variability of land suitability is decomposed and attributed to individual criteria weights. The resulting sensitivity maps delineate regions of weight dominance, where a particular weight greatly influences the uncertainty of suitability scores.

Spatially-explicit integrated uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of criteria weights in multicriteria land suitability evaluation

Land-use land-cover change is one of the most important and direct drivers of changes in ecosystem functions and services. Given the complexity of the decision-making, there is a need for Internet-based decision support systems with scenario evaluation capabilities to help planners, resource managers and communities visualize, compare and consider trade-offs among the many values at stake in land use planning. This article presents details on an Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype that integrates ecological, socio-economic information and associated values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multi-criteria scenario evaluation framework, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit land-use/land-cover change-sensitive models to characterize changes in important land-cover related ecosystem values related to ecosystem services and functions, land parcel prices, and community quality-of-life (QoL) metrics. Parameters in the underlying models can be modified through the interface, allowing users in a facilitated group setting to explore simultaneously issues of scientific uncertainty and divergence in the preferences of stakeholders. One application of the South Florida EPM prototype reported in this article shows the modeled changes (which are significant) in aggregate ecological value, landscape patterns and fragmentation, biodiversity potential and ecological restoration potential for current land uses compared to the 2050 land-use scenario. Ongoing refinements to EPM, and future work especially in regard to modifiable sea level rise scenarios are also discussed.

An integrated multi-criteria scenario evaluation web tool for participatory land-use planning in urbanized areas: The Ecosystem Portfolio Model

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An integrated multi-criteria scenario evaluation web tool for participatory land-use planning in urbanized areas: The Ecosystem Portfolio Model