A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures

Data assimilation (DA) holds considerable potential for improving hydrologic predictions as demonstrated in numerous research studies. However, advances in hydrologic DA research have not been adequately or timely implemented in operational forecast systems to improve the skill of forecasts for better informed real-world decision making. This is due in part to a lack of mechanisms to properly quantify the uncertainty in observations and forecast models in real-time forecasting situations and to conduct the merging of data and models in a way that is adequately efficient and transparent to operational forecasters. The need for effective DA of useful hydrologic data into the forecast process has become increasingly recognized in recent years. This motivated a hydrologic DA workshop in Delft, the Netherlands in November 2010, which focused on advancing DA in operational hydrologic forecasting and water resources management. As an outcome of the workshop, this paper reviews, in relevant detail, the current status of DA applications in both hydrologic research and operational practices, and discusses the existing or potential hurdles and challenges in transitioning hydrologic DA research into cost-effective operational forecasting tools, as well as the potential pathways and newly emerging opportunities for overcoming these challenges. Several related aspects are discussed, including (1) theoretical or mathematical aspects in DA algorithms, (2) the estimation of different types of uncertainty, (3) new observations and their objective use in hydrologic DA, (4) the use of DA for real-time control of water resources systems, and (5) the development of community-based, generic DA tools for hydrologic applications. It is recommended that cost-effective transition of hydrologic DA from research to operations should be helped by developing community-based, generic modeling and DA tools or frameworks, and through fostering collaborative efforts among hydrologic modellers, DA developers, and operational forecasters.

/pdf/advancing-data-assimilation-in-operational-hydrologic-36urqg718e.pdf

Advancing data assimilation in operational hydrologic forecasting: progresses, challenges, and emerging opportunities

IAEG Commission No. 1—Engineering Geological Maps—is developing a guide to hazard maps. Scientists from 17 countries have participated. This paper is one of a series that presents the results of that work. It provides a general review of GIS landslide mapping techniques and basic concepts of landslide mapping. Three groups of maps are considered: maps of spatial incidence of landslides, maps of spatial–temporal incidence and forecasting of landslides and maps of assessment of the consequences of landslides. With the current era of powerful microcomputers and widespread use of GIS packages, large numbers of papers on the subject are becoming available, frequently founded on different basic concepts. In order to achieve a better understanding and comparison, the concepts proposed by Varnes (Landslide hazard zonation: a review of principles and practice, 1984) and Fell (Some landslide risk zoning schemes in use in Eastern Australua and their application 1992; Landslide risk assessment and acceptable risk. Can Geotech J 31:261–272, 1994) are taken as references. It is hoped this will also add to the international usefulness of these maps as tools for landslide prevention and mitigation. Six hundred and sixty one papers and books related to the topic are included in the references, many of which are reviewed in the text.

Engineering geology maps: landslides and geographical information systems

Flash flood warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture conditions: An assessment for gauged and ungauged basins

. Hazard assessment of shallow landslides represents an important aspect of land management in mountainous areas. Among all the methods proposed in the literature, physically based methods are the only ones that explicitly includes the dynamic factors that control landslide triggering (rainfall pattern, land-use). For this reason, they allow forecasting both the temporal and the spatial distribution of shallow landslides. Physically based methods for shallow landslides are based on the coupling of the infinite slope stability analysis with hydrological models. Three different grid-based distributed hydrological models are presented in this paper: a steady state model, a transient "piston-flow" wetting front model, and a transient diffusive model. A comparative test of these models was performed to simulate landslide occurred during a rainfall event (27–28 June 1997) that triggered hundreds of shallow landslides within Lecco province (central Southern Alps, Italy). In order to test the potential for a completely distributed model for rainfall-triggered landslides, radar detected rainfall intensity has been used. A new procedure for quantitative evaluation of distributed model performance is presented and used in this paper. The diffusive model results in the best model for the simulation of shallow landslide triggering after a rainfall event like the one that we have analysed. Finally, radar data available for the June 1997 event permitted greatly improving the simulation. In particular, radar data allowed to explain the non-uniform distribution of landslides within the study area.

/pdf/distributed-modelling-of-shallow-landslides-triggered-by-308vkidwdd.pdf

Distributed modelling of shallow landslides triggered by intense rainfall

A flood is an overflowing of water from rivers onto land not usually submerged. Floods also occur when water levels of lakes, ponds, reservoirs, aquifers and estuaries exceed some critical value and inundate the adjacent land, or when the sea surges on coastal lands much above the average sea level. Nevertheless, floods are a natural phenomenon important to the life cycle of many biota, not the least of which is mankind. Floods became a problem as humans began establishing farms and cities in the bottom-lands of streams and rivers. In doing so, they not only exposed their lives and properties to the ravages of floods, but also exacerbated floods by paving the soil and constructing the stream channels. Over time, continued urbanisation of natural floodplains has caused great annual losses of both wealth and human life. In this way, in many countries and regions of the World, floods are the most costly hazards in terms of both loss of human lives and material damage.

Flood Hazard Assessment and Mitigation

This paper investigates the adaptive use of a simple conceptual lumped rainfall-runoff model based on a Probability Distributed Model complemented with a Geomorphological Unit Hydrograph. Three different approaches for updating the model and for its use for real time flood forecasting are compared: the first two are based on a parameter updating approach; in the third procedure the model is cast into a state-space form and an Extended Kalman Filter is applied for the on-line estimation of the state variables. The comparison shows that the procedure based on the filtering techniques provides more reliable results; acceptable results are also obtained by using a parameter updating approach based on the on-line adjustment of the initial conditions.

Adaptive Use of a Conceptual Model for Real Time Flood Forecasting

A model for the analysis of topographic influence on shallow landslide initiation is applied to an experimental mountain basin where high-resolution digital elevation data are available: the Cordon catchment (5 km2) located in northern Italy. The model delineates those areas most prone to shallow landsliding due to surface topographic effects on hydrologic response. The model is composed of two parts: a steady-state model for shallow sub-surface runoff and an infinite-slope Coulomb failure model which assumes that the soil is cohesionless at failure. An inventory of landslide scars is used to document sites of instability and to provide a test of model performance by comparing observed landslide locations with model predictions. The model reproduces the observed distribution of landslide locations in a consistent way, although spatial variations in soil strength and transmissivity, which are not accounted for in the model, influence specific distribution of landslide areas within regions of similar topographic control.

Shallow landslide hazard assessment using a physically based model and digital elevation data

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Flood Hazard Assessment and Mitigation

Adaptive Use of a Conceptual Model for Real Time Flood Forecasting

Shallow landslide hazard assessment using a physically based model and digital elevation data