The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions for 2009 H1N1 influenza on travel intentions: A model of goal-directed behavior

Infectious disease surveillance for mass gatherings (MGs) can be directed locally and globally; however, epidemic intelligence from these two levels is not well integrated. Modelling activities related to MGs have historically focused on crowd behaviours around MG focal points and their relation to the safety of attendees. The integration of developments in internet-based global infectious disease surveillance, transportation modelling of populations travelling to and from MGs, mobile phone technology for surveillance during MGs, metapopulation epidemic modelling, and crowd behaviour modelling is important for progress in MG health. Integration of surveillance across geographic frontiers and modelling across scientific specialties could produce the first real-time risk monitoring and assessment platform that could strengthen awareness of global infectious disease threats before, during, and immediately after MGs. An integrated platform of this kind could help identify infectious disease threats of international concern at the earliest stages possible; provide insights into which diseases are most likely to spread into the MG; help with anticipatory surveillance at the MG; enable mathematical modelling to predict the spread of infectious diseases to and from MGs; simulate the effect of public health interventions aimed at different local and global levels; serve as a foundation for scientific research and innovation in MG health; and strengthen engagement between the scientific community and stakeholders at local, national, and global levels.

/pdf/infectious-disease-surveillance-and-modelling-across-1qujmm4shj.pdf

Infectious disease surveillance and modelling across geographic frontiers and scientific specialties.

A modified theory of planned behavioral: A case of tourist intention to visit a destination post pandemic Covid-19 in Indonesia.

With the global population approaching seven billion and international access to commercial air travel expanding, the number, frequency and scale of human congregations has increased dramatically during the past half century. Today, mass gatherings of hundreds of thousands to millions of people from

Preparing for infectious disease threats at mass gatherings: the case of the Vancouver 2010 Olympic Winter Games

National boundaries have never prevented infectious diseases from reaching distant territories; however, the speed at which an infectious agent can spread around the world via the global airline transportation network has significantly increased during recent decades. We introduce an SEAIR-based, antigravity model to investigate the spread of an infectious disease in two regions which are connected by transportation. As a submodel, an age-structured system is constructed to incorporate the possibility of disease transmission during travel, where age is the time elapsed since the start of the travel. The model is equivalent to a large system of differential equations with dynamically defined delayed feedback. After describing fundamental but biologically relevant properties of the system, we detail the calculation of the basic reproduction number and obtain disease transmission dynamics results in terms of $\mathcal{R}_0$. We parametrize our model for influenza and use real demographic and air travel data ...

/pdf/epidemic-spread-and-variation-of-peak-times-in-connected-5fho4ptf6f.pdf

Epidemic Spread and Variation of Peak Times in Connected Regions Due to Travel-Related Infections---Dynamics of an Antigravity-Type Delay Differential Model

An analysis of Canada's vulnerability to emerging infectious disease threats via the global airline transportation network

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An analysis of Canada's vulnerability to emerging infectious disease threats via the global airline transportation network