BackgroundIn 2022 and 2023, a global outbreak of mpox affected mostly gay, bisexual and other men having sex with men (GBMSM). Outbreak control in the Netherlands included isolation, quarantine, post-exposure prophylaxis vaccination and primary preventive vaccination (PPV).AimWe describe the course of the outbreak, the vaccination programme, vaccine effectiveness (VE) of full vaccination against symptomatic disease, and trends in behaviour to generate hypotheses about factors that influenced the outbreak's decline.MethodsIn this observational study, we collected data from public health services on notified cases, number of PPV invitations and PPV doses administered. We calculated PPV uptake and coverage. Trends in behavioural data of GBMSM visiting sexual health centres were analysed for all consultations in 2022. We estimated VE using the screening method.ResultsUntil 31 December 2023, 1,294 mpox cases were reported. The outbreak peaked in early July 2022 and then declined sharply. PPV started on 25 July 2022; in total 29,851 doses were administered, 45.8% received at least one dose, 35.4% were fully vaccinated. The estimated VE was 68.2% (95% CI 4.3-89.5%). We did not observe an evident decrease in high-risk behaviour.DiscussionIt is unlikely that PPV was a driver of the outbreak's decline, as incidence started to decline well before the start of the PPV programme. The possible impact of behavioural change could not be demonstrated with the available indicators, however, the data had limitations, hampering interpretation. We hypothesise that infection-induced immunity in high-risk groups was an important factor explaining the decline.

Factors potentially contributing to the decline of the mpox outbreak in the Netherlands, 2022 and 2023.

Understanding changes in the transmission dynamics of mpox requires comparing recent estimates of key epidemiologic parameters with historical data. We derived historical estimates for the incubation period and serial interval for mpox and contrasted them with pooled estimates from the 2022 outbreak. Our findings show the pooled mean infection-to-onset incubation period was 8.1 days for the 2022 outbreak and 8.2 days historically, indicating the incubation periods remained relatively consistent over time, despite a shift in the major mode of transmission. However, we estimated the onset-to-onset serial interval at 8.7 days using 2022 data, compared with 14.2 days using historical data. Although the reason for this shortening of the serial interval is unclear, it may be because of increased public health interventions or a shift in the mode of transmission. Recognizing such temporal shifts is essential for informed response strategies, and public health measures remain crucial for controlling mpox and similar future outbreaks.

Incubation Period and Serial Interval of Mpox in 2022 Global Outbreak Compared with Historical Estimates.

The mpox outbreak has subdued with fewer reported cases at the present in high-income countries. It is known that mpox virus (MPXV) infection has been epidemic for more than 50 years in African countries. The ancestral MPXV strain has changed into multiple clades, indicating the ongoing evolution of MPXV, which reflects the historical neglect of mpox in Africa, especially after smallpox eradication, and bestows the danger of more severe mpox epidemics in the future. It is thus imperative to continue the development of mpox diagnostics and treatments so we can be prepared in the event of a new mpox epidemic. In this study, we have developed an MPXV detection tool that leverages the recombinase-aid amplification assay by integrating lateral flow strips (RAA-LF) and one-step sample DNA preparation, with visible readout, no need of laboratory instrument, and ready for field deployment. The detection limit reaches 10 copies per reaction. The performance of our RAA-FL assay in diagnosing mpox clinical samples is on par with that of the quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay. Taken together, we have developed a point-of-care RAA-LF method of high accuracy and sensitivity, readily deployable for field detection of MPXV. This diagnostic tool is expected to improve and accelerate field- and self-diagnosis, allow timely isolation and treatment, reduce the spread of MPXV, thus effectively mitigate MPXV outbreak in the future.

A field diagnostic method for rapid and sensitive detection of mpox virus.

The family Poxviridae currently comprises 22 genera that infect vertebrates. Of these, members of the Ortho-, Para-, Mollusci- and Yatapoxvirus genera have been associated with human diseases of high clinical relevance in dermatology. Historically, smallpox was a notorious health threat until it was declared eradicated by the World Health Organization in 1979. Today, dermatologists are confronted with a variety of poxviral infections, such as farmyard pox, which occurs as a zoonotic infection after contact with animals. In the tropics, tanapox or vaccinia may be in the differential diagnosis as neglected tropical dermatoses. Molluscum contagiosum virus infection accounts for significant disease burden worldwide and is classified as a sexually transmitted infection in certain scenarios. Recently, mpox (monkeypox) has emerged as a public health emergency of international concern, requiring rapid recognition and appropriate management by dermatologists and infectious disease specialists. Advances and new insights into the epidemiology, diagnosis, clinical manifestations and complications, treatment, and prevention of poxviral infections require a high level of expertise and interdisciplinary skills from healthcare professionals linking virology, infectious diseases, and dermatology. This CME article provides a systematic overview and update to assist the practicing dermatologist in the identification, differential diagnosis, and management of poxviral infections.

Poxvirus infections in dermatology - the neglected, the notable, and the notorious.

Background In 2022-2023 a global outbreak of mpox affected mostly gay, bisexual and other men having sex with men (GBMSM). Outbreak control in the Netherlands included isolation, quarantine, post-exposure prophylaxis vaccination, and primary preventive vaccination (PPV). We describe the course of the outbreak, the vaccination programme, vaccine effectiveness (VE) of full vaccination against symptomatic disease, and trends in behaviour to generate hypotheses about factors that influenced the outbreak's decline. Methods Observational study. Data on notified cases, number of PPV invitations, and PPV doses administered were collected from public health services. PPV uptake and coverage were calculated. Monthly trends in behavioural data of GBMSM visiting Sexual Health Centres (SHC) were analysed for all consultations in 2022. VE was estimated using the screening method. Findings A total of 1,266 mpox cases were reported until August 1, 2023. The outbreak peaked early July 2022 and sharply declined afterwards. PPV started July 25, 2023; in total 29,851 doses were administered. 45.8% received at least one dose, 35.4% was fully vaccinated. Estimated VE was 68.2% (95% CI 4.3%-89.5%). In our analyses of behavioural data, we did not observe an evident decrease in high-risk behaviour. Interpretation It is unlikely that PPV was a driver of the outbreak's decline, as incidence started to decline well before the start of the PPV programme. The possible impact of behavioural change could not be demonstrated with the available indicators. We hypothesise that infection-induced immunity in high-risk groups contributed most to the decline. Funding Dutch Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport.

Factors that influenced the course of the mpox outbreak in the Netherlands, 2022-2023

BackgroundSince May 2022, an mpox outbreak affecting primarily men who have sex with men (MSM) has occurred in numerous non-endemic countries worldwide. As MSM frequently reported multiple sexual encounters in this outbreak, reliably determining the time of infection is difficult; consequently, estimation of the incubation period is challenging.AimWe aimed to provide valid and precise estimates of the incubation period distribution of mpox by using cases associated with early outbreak settings where infection likely occurred.MethodsColleagues in European countries were invited to provide information on exposure intervals and date of symptom onset for mpox cases who attended a fetish festival in Antwerp, Belgium, a gay pride festival in Gran Canaria, Spain or a particular club in Berlin, Germany, where early mpox outbreaks occurred. Cases of these outbreaks were pooled; doubly censored models using the log-normal, Weibull and Gamma distributions were fitted to estimate the incubation period distribution.ResultsWe included data on 122 laboratory-confirmed cases from 10 European countries. Depending on the distribution used, the median incubation period ranged between 8 and 9 days, with 5th and 95th percentiles ranging from 2 to 3 and from 20 to 23 days, respectively. The shortest interval that included 50% of incubation periods spanned 8 days (4-11 days).ConclusionCurrent public health management of close contacts should consider that in approximately 5% of cases, the incubation period exceeds the commonly used monitoring period of 21 days.

Estimated incubation period distributions of mpox using cases from two international European festivals and outbreaks in a club in Berlin, May to June 2022.

The highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2-variant B.1.1.529 (Omicron) first appeared in South Africa in November 2021. In order to study Omicron entry to Germany, its occurrence related to incoming airline travel, symptomatology and compliance with entry regulations and recommendations, we conducted a cross-sectional study, followed by a retrospective cohort study among passengers and crew on 19 direct flights from Cape Town, South Africa, to Munich, Germany, between 26 November and 23 December 2021. Travelers were mandatorily PCR-tested on arrival and invited to complete an online questionnaire. SARS-CoV-2-prevalence on arrival was 3.3% (n = 90/2728), and 93% were Omicron. Of the passengers, 528 (19%) completed the questionnaire. Among participants who tested negative on arrival, self-reported SARS-CoV-2-incidence was 4.3% within 14 days, of whom 74% reported a negative PCR-test ≤ 48 h before boarding, 77% were fully vaccinated, and 90% reported wearing an FFP2/medical mask during flight. We found multiple associations between risk factors and infection on and after arrival, among which having a positive-tested travel partner was the most noteworthy. In conclusion, PCR testing before departure was insufficient to control the introduction of the Omicron variant. Additional measures (e.g., frequent testing, quarantine after arrival or travel ban) should be considered to delay virus introduction in such settings.

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0817/12/2/354/pdf?version=1677116057

SARS-CoV-2 Prevalence on and Incidence after Arrival in Travelers on Direct Flights from Cape Town, South Africa to Munich, Germany Shortly after Occurrence of the Omicron Variant in November/December 2021: Results from the OMTRAIR Study

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Estimated incubation period distributions of mpox using cases from two international European festivals and outbreaks in a club in Berlin, May to June 2022.

SARS-CoV-2 Prevalence on and Incidence after Arrival in Travelers on Direct Flights from Cape Town, South Africa to Munich, Germany Shortly after Occurrence of the Omicron Variant in November/December 2021: Results from the OMTRAIR Study