A rapidly growing body of research examines whether human conflict can be affected by climatic changes. Drawing from archeology, criminology, economics, geography, history, political science, and psychology, we assemble and analyze the 60 most rigorous quantitative studies and document, for the first time, a remarkable convergence of results. We find strong causal evidence linking climatic events to human conflict across a range of spatial and temporal scales and across all major regions of the world. The magnitude of climate's influence is substantial: for each 1 standard deviation (1σ) change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall, median estimates indicate that the frequency of interpersonal violence rises 4% and the frequency of intergroup conflict rises 14%. Because locations throughout the inhabited world are expected to warm 2-4σ by 2050, amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical impact of anthropogenic climate change.

Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict

Most obvious, immediate, and direct are the health related effects of extreme events (Pinkerton et al. 2012), which are increasing in frequency and severity as our atmosphere warms and holds more moisture (Kirtman et al 2013, US EPA 2014. Vavrus and Van Dorn 2010). Iowa and the Midwest have experienced higher humidities and increased nighttime temperatures making it harder to recover from daytime heat stress (Pryor et al. 2014). Repeated heavy rain events cause increased exposures to toxic chemicals and raw sewage that are mobilized and spread by flood waters (Broughton 2014, Martinez et al. 2012).

Iowa Climate Statement 2014: Impacts on the Health of Iowans

Over the past four years, researchers and educators at nearly every college and university in Iowa have produced annual statements to communicate in plain language the state of climate science and the impacts of climate change on Iowans. This process has been open to all of our state's academic climate experts to ensure that our statements are factual. Climate change has been measured, and the integrity of the measurements has been accepted through review by thousands of scientists worldwide. The upcoming Iowa caucuses provide Iowans with a unique opportunity to bring their questions into the national conversation about climate change. As presidential candidates come to our state to ask Iowans for their votes, we feel it is important to know how candidates use science to inform decisions. Therefore, we hope that all candidates will be asked and will answer at least the following question: Iowa farmers and communities are already adapting to climate change, and 188 researchers and scientists at 39 Iowa colleges and universities have signed a statement warning that its effects are expected to get worse. What polices do you support to address this critical issue? In support of this question, we share the following information:  Humans are adding heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere. These gases are a major contributor to climate change.  Climate change is already having significant effects on Iowans economically, socially, and psychologically, and these impacts are expected to intensify During dry periods with little rain, increased evaporation makes dry soils even drier, while during wet periods it adds even more moisture to the atmosphere. In these ways, climate change may strengthen both droughts and floods  There is clear evidence that the frequency of intense rain has increased in Iowa over the past 50 years (ICS 2012; Min et al. 2011).  Natural systems are responding to the increase in the global average temperature (Bradley et al. 1999; Gordo, 2007). The northward expansion of species formerly restricted by a colder climate could disrupt  The changes are also expected to lead to negative health effects for Iowans, including the direct impacts of flooding (Pinkerton et al. 2012), stresses on the heart and lungs (Caizzo et al. 2013), allergens that are more abundant and have a longer season (Ziska et al. 2003), and the spread of diseases carried by organisms like mosquitoes and ticks (Patz et al. 2014).  If greenhouse gas emissions …

Iowa Climate Statement 2015: Time for Action

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Iowa Climate Statement 2014: Impacts on the Health of Iowans

Iowa Climate Statement 2015: Time for Action