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Framing, Context, and Methods

. Hydroclimatic extremes such as intense rainfall, floods, droughts, heatwaves, and wind or storms have devastating effects each year. One of the key challenges for society is understanding how these extremes are evolving and likely to unfold beyond their historical distributions under the influence of multiple drivers such as changes in climate, land cover, and other human factors. Methods for analysing hydroclimatic extremes have advanced considerably in recent decades. Here we provide a review of the drivers, metrics, and methods for the detection, attribution, management, and projection of nonstationary hydroclimatic extremes. We discuss issues and uncertainty associated with these approaches (e.g. arising from insufficient record length, spurious nonstationarities, or incomplete representation of nonstationary sources in modelling frameworks), examine empirical and simulation-based frameworks for analysis of nonstationary extremes, and identify gaps for future research.

/pdf/nonstationary-weather-and-water-extremes-a-review-of-methods-4k06vzyfrl.pdf

Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management

State of the UK climate 2018

We analyzed long-term variability and trends in meteorological droughts across Western Europe using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Precipitation data from 199 stations spanning the period 1851-2018 were employed, following homogenisation, to derive SPI-3 and SPI-12 series for each station, together with indices on drought duration and severity Results reveal a general absence of statistically significant long-term trends in the study domain, with the exception of significant trends at some stations, generally covering short periods The largest decreasing trends in SPI-3 (ie increasing drought conditions) were found for summer in the British and Irish Isles In general, drought episodes experienced in the last two or three decades have precedents during the last 170 years, emphasising the importance of long records for assessing change The main characteristic of drought variability in Western Europe is its strong spatial diversity, with regions exhibiting a homogeneous temporal evolution Notably, the temporal variability of drought in Western Europe is more dominant than long-term trends This suggests that long-term drought trends cannot be confirmed in Western Europe using precipitation records alone This study provides a long-term regional assessment of drought variability in Western Europe, which can contribute to better understanding of regional climate change during the past two centuries

/pdf/long-term-variability-and-trends-in-meteorological-droughts-2n69byntlq.pdf

Long‐term variability and trends in meteorological droughts in Western Europe (1851–2018)

State of the UK Climate 2020

A continuous 305-year (1711–2016) monthly rainfall series (IoI_1711) is created for the Island of Ireland. The post 1850 series draws on an existing quality assured rainfall network for Ireland, while pre-1850 values come from instrumental and documentary series compiled, but not published by the UK Met Office. The series is evaluated by comparison with independent long-term observations and reconstructions of precipitation, temperature and circulation indices from across the British–Irish Isles. Strong decadal consistency of IoI_1711 with other long-term observations is evident throughout the annual, boreal spring and autumn series. Annually, the most recent decade (2006–2015) is found to be the wettest in over 300 years. The winter series is probably too dry between the 1740s and 1780s, but strong consistency with other long-term observations strengthens confidence from 1790 onwards. The IoI_1711 series has remarkably wet winters during the 1730s, concurrent with a period of strong westerly airflow, glacial advance throughout Scandinavia and near unprecedented warmth in the Central England Temperature record – all consistent with a strongly positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Unusually wet summers occurred in the 1750s, consistent with proxy (tree-ring) reconstructions of summer precipitation in the region. Our analysis shows that inter-decadal variability of precipitation is much larger than previously thought, while relationships with key modes of climate variability are time-variant. The IoI_1711 series reveals statistically significant multi-centennial trends in winter (increasing) and summer (decreasing) seasonal precipitation. However, given uncertainties in the early winter record, the former finding should be regarded as tentative. The derived record, one of the longest continuous series in Europe, offers valuable insights for understanding multi-decadal and centennial rainfall variability in Ireland, and provides a firm basis for benchmarking other long-term records and reconstructions of past climate. Correlation of Irish rainfall with other parts of Europe increases the utility of the series for understanding historical climate in further regions.

/pdf/a-305-year-continuous-monthly-rainfall-series-for-the-island-4krow3vvjr.pdf

A 305-year continuous monthly rainfall series for the island of Ireland (1711–2016)

Over much of the globe, the temporal extent of meteorological records is limited, yet a wealth of data remains held in paper or image form in numerous archives. To date, little attention has been given to the role that students might play in efforts to rescue these data. Here we summarize an ambitious research-led, accredited teaching experiment in which undergraduate students successfully transcribed more than 1,300 station years of daily precipitation data and associated metadata across Ireland over the period 1860-1939. We explore i) the potential for integrating data rescue activities into the classroom; ii) the ability of students to produce reliable transcriptions and; iii) the learning outcomes for students. Data previously transcribed by Met Eireann (Ireland’s National Meteorological Service) were used as a benchmark against which it was ascertained that students were as accurate as the professionals. Details on the assignment, its planning and execution, and student-aids used are provided...

/pdf/integrating-data-rescue-into-the-classroom-3hcysj7aon.pdf

Integrating Data Rescue into the Classroom

Ireland’s pre-1940 daily rainfall records

A 305 year monthly rainfall series for the Island of Ireland (1711-2016)

Over much of the globe, the temporal extent of meteorological records is limited, yet a wealth of data remains in paper or image form in numerous archives. To date, little attention has been given to the role that students might play in efforts to rescue these data. Here we summarize an ambitious research-led, accredited teaching experiment in which undergraduate students successfully transcribed more than 1,300 station years of daily precipitation data and associated metadata across Ireland over the period 1860–1939. We explore i) the potential for integrating data rescue activities into the classroom, ii) the ability of students to produce reliable transcriptions and, iii) the learning outcomes for students. Data previously transcribed by Met Éireann (Ireland’s National Meteorological Service) were used as a benchmark against which it was ascertained that students were as accurate as the professionals. Details on the assignment, its planning and execution, and student-aids used are provided. The experience highlights the benefits that can accrue for data rescue through innovative collaboration between national meteorological services and academic institutions. At the same time, students have gained valuable learning outcomes and firsthand understanding of the processes that underpin data rescue and analysis. The success of the project demonstrates the potential to extend data rescue in the classroom to other universities, thus providing both an enriched learning experience for the students and a lasting legacy to the scientific community.

Integrating data rescue into the classroom

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