Settlements in coastal lowlands are especially vulnerable to risks resulting from climate change, yet these lowlands are densely settled and growing rapidly. In this paper, we undertake the fi rst global review of the population and urban settlement patterns in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), defi ned here as the contiguous area along the coast that is less than 10 metres above sea level. Overall, this zone covers 2 per cent of the world's land area but contains 10 per cent of the world's population and 13 per cent of the world's urban population. A dis- proportionate number of the countries with a large share of their population in this zone are small island countries, but most of the countries with large populations in the zone are large countries with heavily populated delta regions. On average, the Least Developed Countries have a higher share of their population living in the zone (14 per cent) than do OECD countries (10 per cent), with even greater disparities in the urban shares (21 per cent compared to 11 per cent). Almost two- thirds of urban settlements with populations greater than 5 million fall, at least partly, in the zone. In some countries (most notably China), urbanization is driving a movement in population towards the coast. Reducing the risk of disasters related to climate change in coastal settlements will require a combination of mitigation, migration and settlement modifi cation.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0956247807076960

The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones:

Recent improvements in mapping of global population distribution makes it possible to estimate the number and distribution of people near coasts with greater accuracy than previously possible, and hence consider the potential exposure of these populations to coastal hazards. In this paper, we combine the updated Gridded Population of the World (GPW2) population distribution estimate for 1990 and lighted settlement imagery with a global digital elevation model (DEM) and a high resolution vector coastline. This produces bivariate distributions of population, lighted settlements and land area as functions of elevation and coastal proximity. The near-coastal population within 100 km of a shoreline and 100 m of sea level was estimated as 1.2 X 10(9) people with average densities nearly 3 times higher than the global average density. Within the near coastal-zone, the average population density diminishes more rapidly with elevation than with distance, while the opposite is true of lighted settlements. Lighted settlements are concentrated within 5 km of coastlines worldwide, whereas average population densities are higher at elevations below 20 m throughout the 100 km width of the near-coastal zone. Presently most of the near-coastal population live in relatively densely-populated rural areas and small to medium cities, rather than in large cities. A range of improvements are required to define a better baseline and scenarios for policy analysis. Improving the resolution of the underlying population data is a priority.

A global analysis of human settlement in coastal zones

All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ∼11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 °C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth’s land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/117/21/11350.full.pdf

Future of the human climate niche.

Limited information is available on the presence of microplastics in freshwater systems, and even less is known about the toxicological implications of the exposure of aquatic organisms to plastic particles. The present study was conducted to evaluate the effects of microplastic ingestion on the freshwater amphipod, Hyalella azteca. Hyalella azteca was exposed to fluorescent polyethylene microplastic particles and polypropylene microplastic fibers in individual 250-mL chambers to determine 10-d mortality. In acute bioassays, polypropylene microplastic fibers were significantly more toxic than polyethylene microplastic particles; 10-d lethal concentration 50% values for polyethylene microplastic particles and polypropylene microplastic fibers were 4.64 × 104 microplastics/mL and 71.43 microplastics/mL, respectively. A 42-d chronic bioassay using polyethylene microplastic particles was conducted to quantify effects on reproduction, growth, and egestion. Chronic exposure to polyethylene microplastic particles significantly decreased growth and reproduction at the low and intermediate exposure concentrations. During acute exposures to polyethylene microplastic particles, the egestion times did not significantly differ from the egestion of normal food materials in the control; egestion times for polypropylene microplastic fibers were significantly slower than the egestion of food materials in the control. Amphipods exposed to polypropylene microplastic fibers also had significantly less growth. The greater toxicity of microplastic fibers than microplastic particles corresponded with longer residence times for the fibers in the gut. The difference in residence time might have affected the ability to process food, resulting in an energetic effect reflected in sublethal endpoints. Environ Toxicol Chem 2015;34:2564–2572. © 2015 SETAC

Responses of Hyalella azteca to acute and chronic microplastic exposures

Evaluating the total numbers of people at risk from infectious disease in the world requires not just tabular population data, but data that are spatially explicit and global in extent at a moderate resolution. This review describes the basic methods for constructing estimates of global population distribution with attention to recent advances in improving both spatial and temporal resolution. To evaluate the optimal resolution for the study of disease, the native resolution of the data inputs as well as that of the resulting outputs are discussed. Assumptions used to produce different population data sets are also described, with their implications for the study of infectious disease. Lastly, the application of these population data sets in studies to assess disease distribution and health impacts is reviewed. The data described in this review are distributed in the accompanying DVD.

/pdf/determining-global-population-distribution-methods-4a8k3ss66a.pdf

Determining global population distribution: methods, applications and data.

The spatial distribution of the global human population shows large variations over a wide range of spatial scales and population densities. Understanding what determines this distribution is fundamental to understanding the relationships between humans and the environment. These relationships have long been considered from the standpoint of both the physical system’s influence on humans (e.g., Semple 1911; Huntington 1915, 1921, 1924, 1927, 1951, 1963; King, Bailey, and Sturdy 1994) and human influence on the rest of the system (see Vernadsky 1929, Vitousek et al. 1997, Kates, Turner, and Clark 1990 for an overview of perspectives on humanEarth relations). A necessary first step to understanding the spatial distribution of the population is to quantify its relationship to other factors that may influence it. While some qualitative observations of these relationships are well known, it has only recently become feasible to conduct quantitative analyses of multiple factors at both global and regional scales. The ability to quantify population distributions with respect to multiple parameters could advance our understanding of complex in-

https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/382255

Continental Physiography, Climate, and the Global Distribution of Human Population1

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Continental Physiography, Climate, and the Global Distribution of Human Population1