Humans have relied on coastal resources for centuries. However, current growth in population and increased accessibility of coastal resources through technology have resulted in overcrowded and often conflicted spaces. The recent global move towards development of national blue economy strategies further highlights the increased focus on coastal resources to address a broad range of blue growth industries. The need to manage sustainable development and future exploitation of both over-utilised and emergent coastal resources is both a political and environmental complexity. To address this complexity, we draw on the perspectives of a multi-disciplinary team, utilising two in depth exemplary case studies in New Zealand and within the Myanmar Delta Landscape, to showcase barriers, pathways and actions that facilitate a move from Business as Usual (BAU) to a future aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the UN International Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development 2021–2030. We provide key recommendations to guide interest groups, and nations globally, towards sustainable utilisation, conservation and preservation of their marine environments in a fair and equitable way, and in collaboration with those who directly rely upon coastal ecosystems. We envision a sustainable future driven by conflict mitigation and resolution,  where:

/pdf/ocean-resource-use-building-the-coastal-blue-economy-23mmc5ifvt.pdf

Ocean resource use: building the coastal blue economy

Conservation of marine ecosystems has been highlighted as a priority to ensure a sustainable future. Effective management requires data collection over large spatio-temporal scales, readily accessible and integrated information from monitoring, and tools to support decision-making. However, there are many roadblocks to achieving adequate and timely information on both the effectiveness, and long-term success of conservation efforts, including limited funding, inadequate sampling, and data processing bottlenecks. These factors can result in ineffective, or even detrimental, management decisions in already impacted ecosystems. An automated approach facilitated by artificial intelligence (AI) provides conservation managers with a toolkit that can help alleviate a number of these issues by reducing the monitoring bottlenecks and long-term costs of monitoring. Automating the collection, transfer, and processing of data provides managers access to greater information, thereby facilitating timely and effective management. Incorporating automation and big data availability into a decision support system with a user-friendly interface also enables effective adaptive management. We summarise the current state of artificial intelligence and automation techniques used in marine science and use examples in other disciplines to identify existing and potentially transferable methods that can enable automated monitoring and improve predictive modelling capabilities to support decision making. We also discuss emerging technologies that are likely to be useful as research in computer science and associated technologies continues to develop and become more accessible. Our perspective highlights the potential of AI and big data analytics for supporting decision-making, but also points to important knowledge gaps in multiple areas of the automation processes. These current challenges should be prioritised in conservation research to move toward implementing AI and automation in conservation management for a more informed understanding of impacted ecosystems to result in successful outcomes for conservation managers. We conclude that the current research and emphasis on automated and AI assisted tools in several scientific disciplines may mean the future of monitoring and management in marine science is facilitated and improved by the implementation of automation.

/pdf/artificial-intelligence-and-automated-monitoring-for-2msqoxxn.pdf

Artificial intelligence and automated monitoring for assisting conservation of marine ecosystems: A perspective

The oceans face a range of complex challenges for which the impacts on society are highly uncertain but mostly negative. Tackling these challenges is testing society’s capacity to mobilise transformative action, engendering a sense of powerlessness. Envisaging positive but realistic visions of the future, and considering how current knowledge, resources, and technology could be used to achieve these futures, may lead to greater action to achieve sustainable transformations. Future Seas (
 www.FutureSeas2030.org
 ) brought together researchers across career stages, Indigenous Peoples and environmental managers to develop scenarios for 12 challenges facing the oceans, leveraging interdisciplinary knowledge to improve society’s capacity to purposefully shape the direction of marine social-ecological systems over the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021–2030). We describe and reflect on Future Seas, providing guidance for co-developing scenarios in interdisciplinary teams tasked with exploring ocean futures. We detail the narrative development for two futures: our current trajectory based on published evidence, and a more sustainable future, consistent with the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, which is technically achievable using existing and emerging knowledge. Presentation of Business-as-usual and More Sustainable futures—together—allows communication of both trajectories, whilst also highlighting achievable, sustainable versions of the future. The advantages of the interdisciplinary approach taken include: (1) integrating different perspectives on solutions, (2) capacity to explore interactions between Life Under Water (Goal 14) and other SDGs, and (3) cross-disciplinary learning. This approach allowed participants to conceptualise shared visions of the future and co-design transformative pathways to achieving those futures.

/pdf/developing-achievable-alternate-futures-for-key-challenges-3u627w6ln2.pdf

Developing achievable alternate futures for key challenges during the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development

The oceans face a range of complex challenges for which the impacts on society are highly uncertain but mostly negative. Tackling these challenges is testing society’s capacity to mobilise large-scale transformative action and engendering a sense of ‘doom and gloom’. Envisaging positive but realistic visions of the future, and considering how current knowledge, resources, and technology could be used to achieve these futures, may lead to greater action to achieve sustainable transformations. The Future Seas project (www.FutureSeas2030.org) aims to leverage interdisciplinary knowledge to improve society’s capacity to purposefully shape the direction of marine social-ecological systems over the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021-2030). Teams comprising researchers across career stages, Indigenous Peoples and environmental managers, collaborated over a series of workshops to develop narrative futures for 12 Key Challenges facing the oceans. We focused the narratives on two futures: our current trajectory based on published evidence, and a more sustainable future, consistent with the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, which is technically achievable using existing and emerging knowledge. Presentation of Business-as-usual and More Sustainable futures - together - allows communication of both trajectories, whilst also highlighting achievable , sustainable versions of the future. The advantages of the interdisciplinary approach taken here include: (1) integrating different perspectives on actions and solutions, (2) capacity to explore the interactions between Life Under Water (Goal 14) and other SDGs, and (3) cross-disciplinary learning. This approach allowed participants to conceptualise shared visions of the future and co-design transformative pathways to achieving those futures.

/pdf/developing-achievable-alternate-futures-for-key-challenges-37toqkq6eg.pdf

Developing Achievable Alternate Futures for Key Challenges during the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development

Proactive and coordinated action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will be essential for achieving the healthy, resilient, safe, sustainably harvested and biodiverse ocean that the UN Decade of Ocean Science and sustainable development goals (SDGs) seek. Ocean-based mitigation actions could contribute 12% of the emissions reductions required by 2030 to keep warming to less than 1.5 oC but, because substantial warming is already locked in, extensive adaptation action is also needed. Here, as part of the Future Seas project, we use a “foresighting/hindcasting” technique to describe two scenarios for 2030 in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation for ocean systems. The “business-as-usual” future is expected if current trends continue, while an alternative future could be realised if society were to effectively use available data and knowledge to push as far as possible towards achieving the UN SDGs. We identify three drivers that differentiate between these alternative futures: (i) appetite for climate action, (ii) handling extreme events, and (iii) climate interventions. Actions that could navigate towards the optimistic, sustainable and technically achievable future include:

/pdf/warming-world-changing-ocean-mitigation-and-adaptation-to-4hfrn5kyc4.pdf

Warming world, changing ocean: mitigation and adaptation to support resilient marine systems

Marine ecosystems and their associated biodiversity sustain life on Earth and hold intrinsic value. Critical marine ecosystem services include maintenance of global oxygen and carbon cycles, production of food and energy, and sustenance of human wellbeing. However marine ecosystems are swiftly being degraded due to the unsustainable use of marine environments and a rapidly changing climate. The fundamental challenge for the future is therefore to safeguard marine ecosystem biodiversity, function, and adaptive capacity whilst continuing to provide vital resources for the global population. Here, we use foresighting/hindcasting to consider two plausible futures towards 2030: a business-as-usual trajectory (i.e. continuation of current trends), and a more sustainable but technically achievable future in line with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. We identify key drivers that differentiate these alternative futures and use these to develop an action pathway towards the desirable, more sustainable future. Key to achieving the more sustainable future will be establishing integrative (i.e. across jurisdictions and sectors), adaptive management that supports equitable and sustainable stewardship of marine environments. Conserving marine ecosystems will require recalibrating our social, financial, and industrial relationships with the marine environment. While a sustainable future requires long-term planning and commitment beyond 2030, immediate action is needed to avoid tipping points and avert trajectories of ecosystem decline. By acting now to optimise management and protection of marine ecosystems, building upon existing technologies, and conserving the remaining biodiversity, we can create the best opportunity for a sustainable future in 2030 and beyond. 

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11160-022-09700-3.pdf

Safeguarding marine life: conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems

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Safeguarding marine life: conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems