Stabilizing climate change well below 2 °C and towards 1.5 °C requires comprehensive mitigation of all greenhouse gases (GHG), including both CO2 and non-CO2 GHG emissions. Here we incorporate the latest global non-CO2 emissions and mitigation data into a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model GCAM and examine 90 mitigation scenarios pairing different levels of CO2 and non-CO2 GHG abatement pathways. We estimate that when non-CO2 mitigation contributions are not fully implemented, the timing of net-zero CO2 must occur about two decades earlier. Conversely, comprehensive GHG abatement that fully integrates non-CO2 mitigation measures in addition to a net-zero CO2 commitment can help achieve 1.5 °C stabilization. While decarbonization-driven fuel switching mainly reduces non-CO2 emissions from fuel extraction and end use, targeted non-CO2 mitigation measures can significantly reduce fluorinated gas emissions from industrial processes and cooling sectors. Our integrated modeling provides direct insights in how system-wide all GHG mitigation can affect the timing of net-zero CO2 for 1.5 °C and 2 °C climate change scenarios. Stabilizing climate change requires simultaneous mitigation of all greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). Here the authors examine 90 mitigation scenarios pairing different levels of CO2 and non-CO2 GHG abatement pathways to demonstrate the contributions of different GHGs towards 1.5 °C and 2 °C goals.

/pdf/deep-mitigation-of-co2-and-non-co2-greenhouse-gases-toward-1-33vw16773k.pdf

Deep mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures

Climate and land use changes shift the distribution and dispersal of two umbrella species in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region

Public attitudes toward climate change influence climate and energy policies and guide individual mitigation and adaptation behaviors. Over the last decade, as scientific certainty about the causes and impacts of, and solutions to the climate crisis has increased, cities, states, and regions in the United States have pursued diverse policy strategies. Yet, our understanding of how Americans’ climate views are changing remains largely limited to national trends. Here we use a large US survey dataset ( N=27075 ) to estimate dynamic, state-level changes in 16 climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy preferences over 13 years (2008–2020). We find increases in global warming issue importance and perceived harm in every state. Policy support, however, increased in more liberal states like California and New York, but remained stable elsewhere. Year-by-year estimates of state-level climate opinions can be used to support sub-national mitigation and adaptation efforts that depend on public support and engagement.

/pdf/change-in-us-state-level-public-opinion-about-climate-change-292aohng.pdf

Change in US state-level public opinion about climate change: 2008–2020

Localized carbon reduction strategies are especially critical in states and regions that lack top-down climate leadership. This paper illustrates the use of coupled systems in assessments of subnational climate solutions with a case study of Georgia, a state located in the southeastern United States that does not have statewide climate goals or plans. The paper illustrates how robust place-specific plans for climate action could be derived from foundational global and national work and by embedding that research into the context of socio-ecological-technological systems. Our replicable methodology advances the traditional additive sectoral wedge analysis of carbon abatement potential by incorporating solution interdependencies and by spanning both carbon sources and sinks. We estimate that a system of 20 solutions could cut Georgia's carbon footprint by 35% in 2030 relative to a business-as-usual forecast and by 50% relative to Georgia's emissions in 2005. We also produce a carbon abatement cost curve that aligns private and social costs as well as benefits with units of avoided CO2-e. The solutions are affiliated with various social co-costs and co-benefits that highlight societal concerns extending beyond climate impacts, including public health, environmental quality, employment, and equity.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/118/31/e2100008118.full.pdf

A framework for localizing global climate solutions and their carbon reduction potential.

Traditionally, analysis of the costs of cutting greenhouse gas emissions has assumed that governments would implement idealized, optimal policies such as uniform economy-wide carbon taxes. Yet actual policies in the real world, especially in large federal governments, are often highly heterogeneous and vary in political support and administrative capabilities within a country. While the benefits of heterogeneous action have been discussed widely for experimentation and leadership, little is known about its costs. Focusing on the United States, we represent plausible variation (by more than a factor of 3) in the stringency of state-led climate policy in a process-based integrated assessment model (GCAM-USA). For a wide array of national decarbonization targets, we find that the nationwide cost from heterogeneous subnational policies is only one-tenth higher than nationally uniform policies. Such results hinge on two critical technologies (advanced biofuels and electricity) for which inter-state trade ameliorates the economic efficiencies that might arise with heterogeneous action. The nationwide cost of cutting emissions can be affected by local policies. This study considers the differences across the US states, with integrated assessment model results showing that varying state policies only increases nationwide costs by about 10%.

The surprisingly inexpensive cost of state-driven emission control strategies

Approaches that root national climate strategies in local actions will be essential for all countries as they develop new nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. The potential impact of climate action from non-national actors in delivering higher global ambition is significant. Sub-national action in the United States provides a test for how such actions can accelerate emissions reductions. We aggregated U.S. state, city, and business commitments within an integrated assessment model to assess how a national climate strategy can be built upon non-state actions. We find that existing commitments alone could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, and that enhancing actions by these actors could reduce emissions up to 37%. We show how these actions can provide a stepped-up basis for additional federal action to reduce emissions by 49%—consistent with 1.5 °C. Our analysis demonstrates sub-national actions can lead to substantial reductions and support increased national action. Climate action from local actors is vital in achieving nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. Here the authors show that existing commitments from U.S. states, cities and business could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, with expanded subnational action reducing emissions by 37% and federal action by up to 49%.

/pdf/fusing-subnational-with-national-climate-action-is-central-4pllc9gynz.pdf

Fusing subnational with national climate action is central to decarbonization: the case of the United States.

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Fusing subnational with national climate action is central to decarbonization: the case of the United States.