Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify "natural climate solutions" (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS-when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation-is 23.8 petagrams of CO2 equivalent (PgCO2e) y-1 (95% CI 20.3-37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO2e y-1) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO2 pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO2e-1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO2 mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO2-1 Most NCS actions-if effectively implemented-also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/114/44/11645.full.pdf

Natural climate solutions

To constrain global warming, we must strongly curtail greenhouse gas emissions and capture excess atmospheric carbon dioxide1,2. Regrowing natural forests is a prominent strategy for capturing additional carbon3, but accurate assessments of its potential are limited by uncertainty and variability in carbon accumulation rates2,3. To assess why and where rates differ, here we compile 13,112 georeferenced measurements of carbon accumulation. Climatic factors explain variation in rates better than land-use history, so we combine the field measurements with 66 environmental covariate layers to create a global, one-kilometre-resolution map of potential aboveground carbon accumulation rates for the first 30 years of natural forest regrowth. This map shows over 100-fold variation in rates across the globe, and indicates that default rates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)4,5 may underestimate aboveground carbon accumulation rates by 32 per cent on average and do not capture eight-fold variation within ecozones. Conversely, we conclude that maximum climate mitigation potential from natural forest regrowth is 11 per cent lower than previously reported3 owing to the use of overly high rates for the location of potential new forest. Although our data compilation includes more studies and sites than previous efforts, our results depend on data availability, which is concentrated in ten countries, and data quality, which varies across studies. However, the plots cover most of the environmental conditions across the areas for which we predicted carbon accumulation rates (except for northern Africa and northeast Asia). We therefore provide a robust and globally consistent tool for assessing natural forest regrowth as a climate mitigation strategy. A one-kilometre-resolution map of aboveground carbon accumulation rates of forest regrowth shows 100-fold variation across the globe, with rates 32% higher on average than IPCC estimates.

/pdf/mapping-carbon-accumulation-potential-from-global-natural-42asi1udox.pdf

Mapping carbon accumulation potential from global natural forest regrowth

A Revised Handbook to the Flora of Ceylon

Demand for restoration of resilient, self-sustaining, and biodiverse natural ecosystems as a conservation measure is increasing globally; however, restoration efforts frequently fail to meet standards appropriate for this objective. Achieving these standards requires management underpinned by input from diverse scientific disciplines including ecology, biotechnology, engineering, soil science, ecophysiology, and genetics. Despite increasing restoration research activity, a gap between the immediate needs of restoration practitioners and the outputs of restoration science often limits the effectiveness of restoration programs. Regrettably, studies often fail to identify the practical issues most critical for restoration success. We propose that part of this oversight may result from the absence of a considered statement of the necessary practical restoration science questions. Here we develop a comprehensive framework of the research required to bridge this gap and guide effective restoration. We structure questions in five themes: (1) setting targets and planning for success, (2) sourcing biological material, (3) optimizing establishment, (4) facilitating growth and survival, and (5) restoring resilience, sustainability, and landscape integration. This framework will assist restoration practitioners and scientists to identify knowledge gaps and develop strategic research focused on applied outcomes. The breadth of questions highlights the importance of cross-discipline collaboration among restoration scientists, and while the program is broad, successful restoration projects have typically invested in many or most of these themes. Achieving restoration ecology's goal of averting biodiversity losses is a vast challenge: investment in appropriate science is urgently needed for ecological restoration to fulfill its potential and meet demand as a conservation tool.

/pdf/a-framework-for-the-practical-science-necessary-to-restore-3qqnoy1hte.pdf

A framework for the practical science necessary to restore sustainable, resilient, and biodiverse ecosystems

Priority effects refer to the order or timing of species arrival, including how species that arrive early at a site either positively or negatively affect establishment, growth, or reproduction of species that arrive later. Despite the clear implications of priority effects for ecological restoration, there have been no reviews of how and where priority effects have been studied and the extent to which findings can be applied to restoration. Here, we systematically review the literature on priority effects by (1) synthesizing information from papers that compared simultaneous and nonsimultaneous planting or sowing; (2) discussing the mechanisms through which priority effects operate, (3) considering how these mechanisms might be manipulated to achieve restoration goals; and (4) highlighting future research needed to improve the use of priority effects in restoration. In a term‐targeted search, we found 43 studies that experimentally manipulated the order of arrival of different species. Overall, these concluded that even small delays in arrival time, as opposed to simultaneous arrival of species, can promote differences in subsequent community composition as well as ecosystem functions. There were very few studies on the long‐term stability of these priority effects, and the majority were conducted in temperate grasslands. Our findings suggest that creating alternative vegetation states via priority treatments is a promising avenue for restoration. However, for the concept to be best operationalized for restoration, we need research in more ecosystems that are priorities for restoration, and treatments that are followed over extended time periods.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/rec.13317

Priority effects and ecological restoration

Restoration of rain forest beneath pine plantations: A relay floristic model with special application to tropical South Asia

This study examined the vegetation growing beneath Caribbean pine (Pinus caribaea) plantations established within previously abandoned tea lands adjacent to intact rain forest in southwest Sri Lanka. To examine the pattern and composition of secondary succession and factors affecting it, vegetation was sampled in different relative locations (interior and edge conditions) within plantations. Results demonstrated that more vegetation was found near the plantation edges than in the interior, and this pattern was prominent for both wind- and bird- dispersed species. The vegetation represented a mixture of species belonging to a range of successional guilds representing early (17 species, 42.4% in stem count) and late-successional species (52 species, 40.6%), although native long-lived canopy tree species were mostly absent. Bird-dispersed species dominated the flora (80 species, 86.7% in stem count). Abundance of an exotic shrub Clidemia hirta (Melastomataceae) showed a negative correlation with that of othe...

Pattern and Composition of Secondary Succession Beneath Caribbean Pine Plantations of Southwest Sri Lanka

Tropical forests are disappearing at an alarming rate. It is estimated that approximately 13 million ha of forests are lost in the world annually (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Na...

The Future of Tropical Forests in the Tide of Global Climate Change

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Restoration of rain forest beneath pine plantations: A relay floristic model with special application to tropical South Asia

Pattern and Composition of Secondary Succession Beneath Caribbean Pine Plantations of Southwest Sri Lanka

The Future of Tropical Forests in the Tide of Global Climate Change