. An earth system model (MIROC-ESM 2010) is fully described in terms of each model component and their interactions. Results for the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) historical simulation are presented to demonstrate the model's performance from several perspectives: atmosphere, ocean, sea-ice, land-surface, ocean and terrestrial biogeochemistry, and atmospheric chemistry and aerosols. An atmospheric chemistry coupled version of MIROC-ESM (MIROC-ESM-CHEM 2010) reasonably reproduces transient variations in surface air temperatures for the period 1850–2005, as well as the present-day climatology for the zonal-mean zonal winds and temperatures from the surface to the mesosphere. The historical evolution and global distribution of column ozone and the amount of tropospheric aerosols are reasonably simulated in the model based on the Representative Concentration Pathways' (RCP) historical emissions of these precursors. The simulated distributions of the terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry parameters agree with recent observations, which is encouraging to use the model for future global change projections.

/pdf/miroc-esm-2010-model-description-and-basic-results-of-cmip5-42251eo238.pdf

MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments

The magnitude and evolution of parameters that characterize feedbacks in the coupled carbon–climate system are compared across nine Earth system models (ESMs). The analysis is based on results from biogeochemically, radiatively, and fully coupled simulations in which CO2 increases at a rate of 1% yr−1. These simulations are part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The CO2 fluxes between the atmosphere and underlying land and ocean respond to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and to changes in temperature and other climate variables. The carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedback parameters characterize the response of the CO2 flux between the atmosphere and the underlying surface to these changes. Feedback parameters are calculated using two different approaches. The two approaches are equivalent and either may be used to calculate the contribution of the feedback terms to diagnosed cumulative emissions. The contribution of carbon–concentration feedback to...

/pdf/carbon-concentration-and-carbon-climate-feedbacks-in-cmip5-4qzsprx8rs.pdf

Carbon–Concentration and Carbon–Climate Feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth System Models

Carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth system models

Observations show snowpack has declined across much of the western United States over the period 1950–99. This reduction has important social and economic implications, as water retained in the snowpack from winter storms forms an important part of the hydrological cycle and water supply in the region. A formal model-based detection and attribution (D–A) study of these reductions is performed. The detection variable is the ratio of 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) to water-year-to-date precipitation (P), chosen to reduce the effect of P variability on the results. Estimates of natural internal climate variability are obtained from 1600 years of two control simulations performed with fully coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models. Estimates of the SWE/P response to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, and some aerosols are taken from multiple-member ensembles of perturbation experiments run with two models. The D–A shows the observations and anthropogenically forced models have greater SWE/P reductions than can be explained by natural internal climate variability alone. Model-estimated effects of changes in solar and volcanic forcing likewise do not explain the SWE/P reductions. The mean model estimate is that about half of the SWE/P reductions observed in the west from 1950 to 1999 are the result of climate changes forced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, and aerosols.

/pdf/attribution-of-declining-western-u-s-snowpack-to-human-wred5cav6l.pdf

Attribution of declining Western U.S. Snowpack to human effects

[1] A high-resolution middle atmosphere general circulation model (GCM) developed for studying small-scale atmospheric processes is presented, and the general features of the model are discussed. The GCM has T213 spectral horizontal resolution and 256 vertical levels extending from the surface to a height of 85 km with a uniform vertical spacing of 300 m. Gravity waves (GWs) are spontaneously generated by convection, topography, instability, and adjustment processes in the model, and the GCM reproduces realistic general circulation in the extratropical stratosphere and mesosphere. The oscillations similar to the stratopause semiannual oscillation and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the equatorial lower stratosphere are also spontaneously generated in the GCM, although the period of the QBO-like oscillation is short (15 months). The relative roles of planetary waves, large-scale GWs, and small-scale GWs in maintenance of the meridional structures of the zonal wind jets in the middle atmosphere are evaluated by calculating Eliassen-Palm diagnostics separately for each of these three groups of waves. Small-scale GWs are found to cause deceleration of the wintertime polar night jet and the summertime easterly jet in the mesosphere, while extratropical planetary waves primarily cause deceleration of the polar night jet below a height of approximately 60 km. The meridional distribution and propagation of small-scale GWs are shown to affect the shape of the upper part of mesospheric jets. The phase structures of orographic GWs over the South Andes and GWs emitted from the tropospheric jet stream are discussed as examples of realistic GWs reproduced by the T213L256 GCM.

/pdf/general-aspects-of-a-t213l256-middle-atmosphere-general-180meb8uee.pdf

General aspects of a T213L256 middle atmosphere general circulation model

Climate change simulations with a coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM called the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, MIROC

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Climate change simulations with a coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM called the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, MIROC

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Climate change simulations with a coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM called the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, MIROC

徹野沢