As China’s rapid urbanization continues and urban dwellers become more affluent, energy use in buildings is expected to grow. To understand how this growth can be slowed, we explore four scenarios for Chinese buildings, ranging from a high-energy-demand scenario with no new energy policies to lowest energy demand under a techno-economic-potential scenario that assumes full deployment of cost-effective efficient and renewable technologies by 2050. We show that, in the high energy demand scenario, building energy demand has an average annual growth rate of about 2.8%, with slower growth rates in the other three scenarios. In all scenarios, CO2 emissions grow slower than energy, with building CO2 peaking around 2045 in the high energy demand scenario, and as early as 2030 in the techno-economic-potential scenario. We show that although various technological solutions, systems and practices can be very effective in minimizing building energy use, rigorous policies are needed to overcome multiple implementation barriers.

/pdf/scenarios-of-energy-efficiency-and-co-2-emissions-reduction-20voajbhue.pdf

Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO 2 emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050

Urban areas are experiencing strongly increasing hot temperature extremes. However, these urban heat events have seldom been the focus of traditional detection and attribution analysis designed for regional to global changes. Here we show that compound (day–night sustained) hot extremes are more dangerous than solely daytime or nighttime heat, especially to female and older urban residents. Urban compound hot extremes across eastern China have increased by 1.76 days per decade from 1961 to 2014 with fingerprints of urban expansion and anthropogenic emissions detected by a stepwise detection and attribution method. Their attributable fractions are estimated as 0.51 (urbanization), 1.63 (greenhouse gases) and −0.54 (other anthropogenic forcings) days per decade. Future emissions and urbanization would make these compound events two to five times more frequent (2090s versus 2010s), leading to a threefold-to-sixfold growth in urban population exposure. Our findings call for tailored adaptation planning against rapidly growing health threats from compound heat in cities. Heat extremes threaten the health of urban residents with particularly strong impacts from day–night sustained heat. Observation and simulation data across eastern China show increasing risks of compound events attributed to anthropogenic emissions and urbanization.

Anthropogenic emissions and urbanization increase risk of compound hot extremes in cities

China is undergoing great social changes, and its demographic makeup is shifting every year along with those changes. China released key indicators from the seventh national population census on 12 May 2021. The total population of China’s mainland increased to 1.41178 billion in 2020 from 1.33972 billion in 2010 (sixth national population census) with an average annual growth rate of 0.53%. In the past 10 years, the share of the population aged above 60 and 65 years increased by 5.44% (from 13.26% in 2010 to 18.70% in 2020) and 4.6% (from 8.9 to 13.5%), respectively. The share of the population with a college education or above rose from 8.93% in 2010 to 15.47% in 2020, and the illiteracy rate dropped from 4.08% in 2010 to 2.67% in 2020. In the next decade, China is likely to face many changes, including the increasing proportion of older adults in the population, declining births, and economic transformation. In an effort to respond to the changed demographic landscape, the authorities should adopt new laws and strategies to improve government services for older adults and consider ways to support women and families and make childbearing more attractive to and feasible for women.

Aging tsunami coming: the main finding from China's seventh national population census

The pace and scale of China’s contemporary urbanization are stunning. This paper reviews process and the underlying driving forces of China’s urbanization between 1949–2015. Contemporary China’s urbanization has experienced four stages, and each has had different driving forces: 1) economic re-construction and industrialization-led urbanization (1949–1977); 2) economic reform and market-led urbanization (1978–1995); 3) economic globalization and the global-local urbanization (1996–2010); and 4) the land-economy-led urbanization (2010–). These urbanization processes and driving forces will undoubtedly provide scientific reference and have significant implications for developing countries, especially African countries, to formulate their urbanization public policies.

http://egeoscien.neigae.ac.cn/CN/article/downloadArticleFile.do?attachType=PDF&id=9900

China's Urbanization in 1949-2015:Processes and Driving Forces

Urbanization is becoming the most important human social change in the world, especially in developing countries. However, what is the process of urbanization? What forces are driving the urbanization process? This paper summarizes five main processes of urbanization through various aspects of urbanization in different countries, including economic growth and development, demographic change, social transformation, reshaped and stretched urban spaces, and shrinking cities. Based on the comprehensive method of analyzing urbanization, this paper sorts out five driving forces of urbanization, which are industrialization, modernization, globalization, marketization and administrative/institutional power. The author tries to contribute to the healthy development of urbanization in developing countries through the analysis of process and driving force in urbanization.

Urbanization: Processes and driving forces

Is Chinese urbanization going to take a long time, or can its development goal be achieved by the government in a short time? What is the highest stable urbanization level that China can reach? When can China complete its urbanization? To answer these questions, this paper presents a system dynamic (SD) model of Chinese urbanization, and its validity and simulation are justified by a stock-flow test and a sensitivity analysis using real data from 1998 to 2013. Setting the initial conditions of the simulation by referring to the real data of 2013, the multi-scenario analysis from 2013 to 2050 reveals that Chinese urbanization will reach a level higher than 70% in 2035 and then proceed to a slow urbanization stage regardless of the population policy and GDP growth rate settings; in 2050, Chinese urbanization levels will reach approximately 75%, which is a stable and equilibrium level for China. Thus, it can be argued that Chinese urbanization is a long social development process that will require approximately 20 years to complete and that the ultimate urbanization level will be 75–80%, which means that in the distant future, 20–25% of China’s population will still settle in rural regions of China.

Chinese urbanization 2050: SD modeling and process simulation

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Chinese urbanization 2050: SD modeling and process simulation