计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

The asymptotic behaviour of (Yn, n e N) is of fundamental importance in probability theory. Indeed, if the Xj have common mean fi and variance a, then by taking each an = n/u and b„ = n a, the celebrated Central Limit Theorem tells us that (Yn) converges in distribution to a standard normal. The class of random variables which appear as limits in distribution of (Yn) for more general (an) and (b„) are called the stable random variables and they have a number of elegant properties, such as the preservation of their distribution functions under convolution. A stochastic process is said to be stable if all its finite-dimensional distributions are themselves stable and it is the systematic study of such processes which is the aim of the present volume.

Stable non-Gaussian random processes , by G. Samorodnitsky and M. S. Taqqu. Pp. 632. £49.50. 1994. ISBN 0-412-05171-0 (Chapman and Hall).

Are natural resources a "curse" or a "blessing" The empirical evidence suggests that either outcome is possible. This paper surveys a variety of hypotheses and supporting evidence for why some countries benefit and others lose from the presence of natural resources. These include that a resource bonanza induces appreciation of the real exchange rate, deindustrialization, and bad growth prospects, and that these adverse effects are more severe in volatile countries with bad institutions and lack of rule of law, corruption, presidential democracies, and underdeveloped financial systems. Another hypothesis is that a resource boom reinforces rent grabbing and civil conflict especially if institutions are bad, induces corruption especially in nondemocratic countries, and keeps in place bad policies. Finally, resource rich developing economies seem unable to successfully convert their depleting exhaustible resources into other productive assets. The survey also offers some welfare-based fiscal rules for harnessing resource windfalls in developed and developing economies.

/pdf/natural-resources-curse-or-blessing-43sxsn9q20.pdf

Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?

Are natural resources a “curse” or a “blessing”? The empirical evidence suggests either outcome is possible. The paper surveys a variety of hypotheses and supporting evidence for why some countries benefit and others lose from the presence of natural resources. These include that a resource bonanza induces appreciation of the real exchange rate, deindustrialization and bad growth prospects, and that these adverse effects are more severe in volatile countries with bad institutions and lack of rule of law, corruption, presidential democracies, and underdeveloped financial systems. Another hypothesis is that a resource boom reinforces rent grabbing and civil conflict especially if institutions are bad, induces corruption especially in non-democratic countries, and keeps in place bad policies. Finally, resource rich developing economies seem unable to successfully convert their depleting exhaustible resources into other productive assets. The survey also offers some welfare-based fiscal rules for harnessing resource windfalls in developed and developing economies.

Buying time: The delayed crisis of democratic capitalism

We apply a direct method to estimate tax evasion in Italy assuming that tax evaders might consider declaring a closer-to-true income in an anonymous interview. The methodology is applied to employed and self-employed taxpayers, combining the Survey of Household Income (SHIW) by the Bank of Italy and a large random sample of tax forms by SeCIT, both referred to incomes received in 2000. Posing particular attention to the post-stratiflcation of the data, we flnd that tax evasion is consistently higher for self-employment income than for employment income: the difierence ranges from about 7% in lower deciles to 27% around the mode. This analysis shows that a relevant level of tax evasion arises also at low levels of employment income, although some under-sampling problems need to be considered. A description of tax evaders is attempted using standard OLS and quantile regression methods and an evaluation of the redistribution and incidence efiects of tax evasion among workers is provided.

/pdf/workers-tax-evasion-in-italy-rctrxcbapd.pdf

Workers' tax evasion in italy*

In this paper a two-step procedure based on Nonlinear Principal Component Analysis (NLPCA) and Multilevel models (MLM) for the analysis of satisfaction data is proposed. The basic hypothesis is that observed ordinal variables describe different aspects of a latent continuous variable, which depends on covariates connected with individual and contextual features. NLPCA is used to measure the level of a latent variable and MLM is adopted for detecting individual and environmental determinants of the level. This approach is suggested to analyze users’ satisfaction. In fact, NLPCA is used to create a synthetic continuous measure of satisfaction (first step) and MLM are used to detect the role of external (individual or environmental) variables that can affect the level itself (second step). The proposed two-step procedure is applied to the Eurobarometer survey data about opinion of European citizens on services of general interest (SGI) aiming to evaluate and compare the opinion about SGI in different countries. The focus is on overall level of satisfaction about four major public services: fixed telephone, electricity supply, postal and rail services. The item analyzed, which are named manifest variables, are: access easiness, price, quality, information clarity and contract fairness, as reported in the 2002 Eurobarometer survey. In the first step these variables are used to set up the synthetic indicator (the overall level) of satisfaction and, in the second step, a MLM is used to test the impact of some explanatory variables on this satisfaction.

A Two-Step Approach to Analyze Satisfaction Data

We show how classic source-decomposition and subgroup-decomposition methods can be reconciled with regression methodology used in the recent literature. We also highlight some pitfalls that arise from uncritical use of the regression approach. The LIS database is used to compare the approaches using an analysis of the changing contributions to inequality in the United States and Finland.

http://fiorio.economia.unimi.it/res/Cowell_Fiorio2011_JOEI.pdf

Inequality Decompositions. A Reconciliation

This paper analyses the distribution of the classical t-ratio statistic from distributions with no finite moments and shows how classical testing is affected. Some surprising results are obtained in terms of bimodality vs. the usual unimodality of the standard studentized t-distribution prevailing in classical conditions. The paper develops a new distribution termed the “double Pareto,” which allows the thickness of the tails and the existence of moments to be determined parametrically. We also consider infinite-moments distributions truncated on a compact support to investigate the relative importance of tail thickness in case of finite moments. We find that the bimodality persists even in such cases. Simulation results are used to highlight the dangers of relying on naive testing in the face of thick-tailed distributions. Special cases analyzed include one- and two-sample statistical inference problems, as well as linear regression econometric problems.

Inference and Thick Tails: Some Surprising Results

Italy adopted in 1998 a peculiar audit scheme (Studi di Settore), for small and medium enterprises and the self-employed. This scheme is based on a particular interaction between the tax agency and taxpayers, where the agency unveils only part of the information used to develop its audit rule. The authors study this scheme by means of a simple theoretical model and they test it using a sample of 23,000 firms in manufacturing sectors in the 2005 tax year. A number of theoretically relevant relations are confirmed. In particular, reports made by taxpayers seem to be positively associated to the firm’s size. When taxpayers know that the probability to be audited decreases, they tend to report less. Other factors that are expected to influence the behavior of taxpayers have no or an ambiguous impact on reporting behavior.

Taxpayer Behavior When Audit Rules Are Known: Evidence from Italy:

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