How will a virus propagate in a real networkq How long does it take to disinfect a network given particular values of infection rate and virus death rateq What is the single best node to immunizeq Answering these questions is essential for devising network-wide strategies to counter viruses. In addition, viral propagation is very similar in principle to the spread of rumors, information, and “fads,” implying that the solutions for viral propagation would also offer insights into these other problem settings. We answer these questions by developing a nonlinear dynamical system (NLDS) that accurately models viral propagation in any arbitrary network, including real and synthesized network graphs. We propose a general epidemic threshold condition for the NLDS system: we prove that the epidemic threshold for a network is exactly the inverse of the largest eigenvalue of its adjacency matrix. Finally, we show that below the epidemic threshold, infections die out at an exponential rate. Our epidemic threshold model subsumes many known thresholds for special-case graphs (e.g., Erdos--Renyi, BA powerlaw, homogeneous). We demonstrate the predictive power of our model with extensive experiments on real and synthesized graphs, and show that our threshold condition holds for arbitrary graphs. Finally, we show how to utilize our threshold condition for practical uses: It can dictate which nodes to immunize; it can assess the effects of a throttling policy; it can help us design network topologies so that they are more resistant to viruses.

/pdf/epidemic-thresholds-in-real-networks-1dbltlkixp.pdf

Epidemic thresholds in real networks

The eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the molecular dynamics propagator (or transfer operator) contain the essential information about the molecular thermodynamics and kinetics. This includes the stationary distribution, the metastable states, and state-to-state transition rates. Here, we present a variational approach for computing these dominant eigenvalues and eigenvectors. This approach is analogous to the variational approach used for computing stationary states in quantum mechanics. A corresponding method of linear variation is formulated. It is shown that the matrices needed for the linear variation method are correlation matrices that can be estimated from simple MD simulations for a given basis set. The method proposed here is thus to first define a basis set able to capture the relevant conformational transitions, then compute the respective correlation matrices, and then to compute their dominant eigenvalues and eigenvectors, thus obtaining the key ingredients of the slow kinetics.

Variational Approach to Molecular Kinetics.

The largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix of networks is a key quantity determining several important dynamical processes on complex networks. Based on this fact, we present a quantitative, objective characterization of the dynamical importance of network nodes and links in terms of their effect on the largest eigenvalue. We show how our characterization of the dynamical importance of nodes can be affected by degree-degree correlations and network community structure. We discuss how our characterization can be used to optimize techniques for controlling certain network dynamical processes and apply our results to real networks.

http://www.sci.sdsu.edu/~jbillen/library/Restrepo%20-%20Phys.%20Rev.%20Lett.%2097,%20094102%20(2006).pdf

Characterizing the Dynamical Importance of Network Nodes and Links

We consider the problem of conditioning a Markov process on a rare event and of representing this conditioned process by a conditioning-free process, called the effective or driven process. The basic assumption is that the rare event used in the conditioning is a large deviation-type event, characterized by a convex rate function. Under this assumption, we construct the driven process via a generalization of Doob's $h$-transform, used in the context of bridge processes, and show that this process is equivalent to the conditioned process in the long-time limit. The notion of equivalence that we consider is based on the logarithmic equivalence of path measures and implies that the two processes have the same typical states. In constructing the driven process, we also prove equivalence with the so-called exponential tilting of the Markov process, which is used with importance sampling to simulate rare events, and which gives rise, from the point of view of statistical mechanics, to a nonequilibrium version of the canonical ensemble. Other links between our results and the topics of bridge processes, quasi-stationary distributions, stochastic control, and conditional limit theorems are mentioned.

Nonequilibrium Markov processes conditioned on large deviations

Given a snapshot of a large graph, in which an infection has been spreading for some time, can we identify those nodes from which the infection started to spread? In other words, can we reliably tell who the culprits are? In this paper we answer this question affirmatively, and give an efficient method called NETSLEUTH for the well-known Susceptible-Infected virus propagation model. Essentially, we are after that set of seed nodes that best explain the given snapshot. We propose to employ the Minimum Description Length principle to identify the best set of seed nodes and virus propagation ripple, as the one by which we can most succinctly describe the infected graph. We give an highly efficient algorithm to identify likely sets of seed nodes given a snapshot. Then, given these seed nodes, we show we can optimize the virus propagation ripple in a principled way by maximizing likelihood. With all three combined, NETSLEUTH can automatically identify the correct number of seed nodes, as well as which nodes are the culprits. Experimentation on our method shows high accuracy in the detection of seed nodes, in addition to the correct automatic identification of their number. Moreover, we show NETSLEUTH scales linearly in the number of nodes of the graph.

https://eda.mmci.uni-saarland.de/pubs/2012/culprits-prakash,vreeken,faloutsos.pdf

Spotting Culprits in Epidemics: How Many and Which Ones?

This paper chronicles the wide dispersal of Perron's 1907 result on positive matrices into many fields of science. The many proofs given during the last 93 years are categorized and critiqued (including Perron's original two proofs), and a more natural proof is presented. This simple-to-understand result of Perron provides a unequaled vehicle for taking students on a tour of many applied areas with some depth.

https://epubs.siam.org/doi/pdf/10.1137/S0036144599359449

The Many Proofs and Applications of Perron's Theorem

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The Many Proofs and Applications of Perron's Theorem