The remarkable complexity of soil and its importance to a wide range of ecosystem services presents major challenges to the modeling of soil processes. Although major progress in soil models has occurred in the last decades, models of soil processes remain disjointed between disciplines or ecosystem services, with considerable uncertainty remaining in the quality of predictions and several challenges that remain yet to be addressed. First, there is a need to improve exchange of knowledge and experience among the different disciplines in soil science and to reach out to other Earth science communities. Second, the community needs to develop a new generation of soil models based on a systemic approach comprising relevant physical, chemical, and biological processes to address critical knowledge gaps in our understanding of soil processes and their interactions. Overcoming these challenges will facilitate exchanges between soil modeling and climate, plant, and social science modeling communities. It will allow us to contribute to preserve and improve our assessment of ecosystem services and advance our understanding of climate-change feedback mechanisms, among others, thereby facilitating and strengthening communication among scientific disciplines and society. We review the role of modeling soil processes in quantifying key soil processes that shape ecosystem services, with a focus on provisioning and regulating services. We then identify key challenges in modeling soil processes, including the systematic incorporation of heterogeneity and uncertainty, the integration of data and models, and strategies for effective integration of knowledge on physical, chemical, and biological soil processes. We discuss how the soil modeling community could best interface with modern modeling activities in other disciplines, such as climate, ecology, and plant research, and how to weave novel observation and measurement techniques into soil models. We propose the establishment of an international soil modeling consortium to coherently advance soil modeling activities and foster communication with other Earth science disciplines. Such a consortium should promote soil modeling platforms and data repository for model development, calibration and intercomparison essential for addressing contemporary challenges.

/pdf/modeling-soil-processes-review-key-challenges-and-new-4a1lz21a4f.pdf

Modeling Soil Processes: Review, Key Challenges, and New Perspectives

Groundwater recharged less than 50 years ago is vulnerable to contamination and land-use changes. Data and simulations suggest that up to 6% of continental groundwater is modern—forming the largest component of the active hydrologic cycle.

The global volume and distribution of modern groundwater

Globally, inland waters receive a significant but ill-defined quantity of terrestrial carbon (C). When summed, the contemporary estimates for the three possible fates of C in inland waters (storage, outgassing, and export) highlight that terrestrial landscapes may deliver upward of 5.1 Pg of C annually. This review of flux estimates over the last decade has revealed an average increase of ∼ 0.3 Pg C yr−1, indicating a historical underestimation of the amount of terrestrial-C exported to inland waters. The continual increase in the estimates also underscores large data gaps and uncertainty. As research continues to refine these aquatic fluxes, especially C outgassed from the humid tropics and other understudied regions, we expect the global estimate of terrestrial-C transferred to inland waters to rise. An important implication of this upward refinement is that terrestrial net ecosystem production may be overestimated with ramifications for modeling of the global C cycle.

https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/lol2.10055

Terrestrial carbon inputs to inland waters: A current synthesis of estimates and uncertainty

. Environmental heterogeneity is ubiquitous, but environmental systems are often analyzed as if they were homogeneous instead, resulting in aggregation errors that are rarely explored and almost never quantified. Here I use simple benchmark tests to explore this general problem in one specific context: the use of seasonal cycles in chemical or isotopic tracers (such as Cl−, δ18O, or δ2H) to estimate timescales of storage in catchments. Timescales of catchment storage are typically quantified by the mean transit time, meaning the average time that elapses between parcels of water entering as precipitation and leaving again as streamflow. Longer mean transit times imply greater damping of seasonal tracer cycles. Thus, the amplitudes of tracer cycles in precipitation and streamflow are commonly used to calculate catchment mean transit times. Here I show that these calculations will typically be wrong by several hundred percent, when applied to catchments with realistic degrees of spatial heterogeneity. This aggregation bias arises from the strong nonlinearity in the relationship between tracer cycle amplitude and mean travel time. I propose an alternative storage metric, the young water fraction in streamflow, defined as the fraction of runoff with transit times of less than roughly 0.2 years. I show that this young water fraction (not to be confused with event-based "new water" in hydrograph separations) is accurately predicted by seasonal tracer cycles within a precision of a few percent, across the entire range of mean transit times from almost zero to almost infinity. Importantly, this relationship is also virtually free from aggregation error. That is, seasonal tracer cycles also accurately predict the young water fraction in runoff from highly heterogeneous mixtures of subcatchments with strongly contrasting transit-time distributions. Thus, although tracer cycle amplitudes yield biased and unreliable estimates of catchment mean travel times in heterogeneous catchments, they can be used to reliably estimate the fraction of young water in runoff.

/pdf/aggregation-in-environmental-systems-part-1-seasonal-tracer-sptiyxzdjm.pdf

Aggregation in environmental systems – Part 1: Seasonal tracer cycles quantify young water fractions, but not mean transit times, in spatially heterogeneous catchments

Bedrock fracture systems facilitate weathering, allowing fresh mineral surfaces to interact with corrosive waters and biota from Earth’s surface, while simultaneously promoting drainage of chemically equilibrated fluids. We show that topographic perturbations to regional stress fields explain bedrock fracture distributions, as revealed by seismic velocity and electrical resistivity surveys from three landscapes. The base of the fracture-rich zone mirrors surface topography where the ratio of horizontal compressive tectonic stresses to near-surface gravitational stresses is relatively large, and it parallels the surface topography where the ratio is relatively small. Three-dimensional stress calculations predict these results, suggesting that tectonic stresses interact with topography to influence bedrock disaggregation, groundwater flow, chemical weathering, and the depth of the “critical zone” in which many biogeochemical processes occur.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/350/6260/534.full.pdf

Geophysical imaging reveals topographic stress control of bedrock weathering

Earth's temperature is thought to be regulated by a negative feedback between atmospheric CO2 levels and chemical weathering of silicate rocks that operates over million-year time scales. To explain variations in the strength of the weathering feedback, we present a model for silicate weathering that regulates climatic and tectonic forcing through hydrologic processes and imposes a thermodynamic limit on weathering fluxes, based on the physical and chemical properties of river basins. Climate regulation by silicate weathering is thus strongest when global topography is elevated, similar to the situation today, and lowest when global topography is more subdued, allowing planetary temperatures to vary depending on the global distribution of topography and mountain belts, even in the absence of appreciable changes in CO2 degassing rates.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/343/6178/1502.full.pdf

Hydrologic Regulation of Chemical Weathering and the Geologic Carbon Cycle

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Hydrologic Regulation of Chemical Weathering and the Geologic Carbon Cycle