We review the challenges and future perspectives of regional climate model (RCM), or dynamical downscaling, activities. Among the main technical issues in need of better understanding are those of selection and sensitivity to the model domain and resolution, techniques for providing lateral boundary conditions, and RCM internal variability. The added value (AV) obtained with the use of RCMs remains a central issue, which needs more rigorous and comprehensive analysis strategies. Within the context of regional climate projections, large ensembles of simulations are needed to better understand the models and characterize uncertainties. This has provided an impetus for the development of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), the first international program offering a common protocol for downscaling experiments, and we discuss how CORDEX can address the key scientific challenges in downscaling research. Among the main future developments in RCM research, we highlight the development of cou...

https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-environ-102014-021217

Regional Dynamical Downscaling and the CORDEX Initiative

Thirty Years of Regional Climate Modeling: Where Are We and Where Are We Going next?

Online coupled mesoscale meteorology atmospheric chemistry models have undergone a rapid evolution in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modelling community, these models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and regional climate modelling as they can consider not only the effects of meteorology on air quality, but also the potentially important effects of atmospheric composition on weather. Two ways of online coupling can be distinguished: online integrated and online access coupling. Online integrated models simulate meteorology and chemistry over the same grid in one model using one main time step for integration. Online access models use independent meteorology and chemistry modules that might even have different grids, but exchange meteorology and chemistry data on a regular and frequent basis. This article offers a comprehensive review of the current research status of online coupled meteorology and atmospheric chemistry modelling within Europe. Eighteen regional online coupled models developed or being used in Europe are described and compared. Topics discussed include a survey of processes relevant to the interactions between atmospheric physics, dynamics and composition; a brief overview of existing online mesoscale models and European model developments; an analysis on how feedback processes are treated in these models; numerical issues associated with coupled models; and several case studies and model performance evaluation methods. Finally, this article highlights selected scientific issues and emerging challenges that require proper consideration to improve the reliability and usability of these models for the three scientific communities: air quality, numerical meteorology modelling (including weather prediction) and climate modelling. This review will be of particular interest to model developers and users in all three fields as it presents a synthesis of scientific progress and provides recommendations for future research directions and priorities in the development, application and evaluation of online coupled models. © 2014 Author(s).

/pdf/online-coupled-regional-meteorology-chemistry-models-in-zlaz7pngnk.pdf

Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in Europe: current status and prospects

The Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx; http://charmex.lsce.ipsl.fr) is a collaborative research program federating international activities to investigate Mediterranean regional chemistry-climate interactions. A special observing period (SOP-1a) including intensive airborne measurements was performed in the framework of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing on the Mediterranean Climate (ADRIMED) project during the Mediterranean dry season over the western and central Mediterranean basins, with a focus on aerosol-radiation measurements and their modeling. The SOP-1a took place from 11 June to 5 July 2013. Airborne measurements were made by both the ATR-42 and F-20 French research aircraft operated from Sardinia (Italy) and instrumented for in situ and remote-sensing measurements, respectively, and by sounding and drifting balloons, launched in Minorca. The experimental set-up also involved several ground-based measurement sites on islands including two ground-based reference stations in Corsica and Lampedusa and secondary monitoring sites in Minorca and Sicily. Additional measurements including lidar profiling were also performed on alert during aircraft operations at EARLINET/ACTRIS stations at Granada and Barcelona in Spain, and in southern Italy. Remote sensing aerosol products from satellites (MSG/SEVIRI, MODIS) and from the AERONET/PHOTONS network were also used. Dedicated meso-scale and regional modelling experiments were performed in relation to this observational effort. We provide here an overview of the different surface and aircraft observations deployed during the ChArMEx/ADRIMED period and of associated modeling studies together with an analysis of the synoptic conditions that determined the aerosol emission and transport. Meteorological conditions observed during this campaign (moderate temperatures and southern flows) were not favorable to produce high level of atmospheric pollutants nor intense biomass burning events in the region. However, numerous mineral dust plumes were observed during the campaign with main sources located in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, leading to aerosol optical depth (AOD) values ranging between 0.2 to 0.6 (at 440 nm) over the western and central Mediterranean basins. Associated aerosol extinction values measured on-board the ATR-42 within the dust plume show local maxima reaching up to 150 Mm−1. Non negligible aerosol extinction (about 50 Mm−1) was also been observed within the Marine Boundary Layer (MBL). By combining ATR-42 extinction, absorption and scattering measurements, a complete optical closure has been made revealing excellent agreement with estimated optical properties. Associated calculations of the dust single scattering albedo (SSA) have been conducted, which show a moderate variability (from 0.90 to 1.00 at 530 nm). In parallel, active remote-sensing observations from the surface and onboard the F-20 aircraft suggest a complex vertical structure of particles and distinct aerosol layers with sea-salt and pollution located within the MBL, and mineral dust and/or aged north American smoke particles located above (up to 6–7 km in altitude). Aircraft and balloon-borne observations show particle size distributions characterized by large aerosols (> 10 μm in diameter) within dust plumes. In terms of shortwave (SW) direct forcing, in-situ surface and aircraft observations have been merged and used as inputs in 1-D radiative transfer codes for calculating the direct radiative forcing (DRF). Results show significant surface SW instantaneous forcing (up to −90 W m−2 at noon). Associated 3-D modeling studies from regional climate (RCM) and chemistry transport (CTM) models indicate a relatively good agreement for simulated AOD compared with measurements/observations from the AERONET/PHOTONS network and satellite data, especially for long-range dust transport. Calculations of the 3-D SW (clear-sky) surface DRF indicate an average of about −10 to −20 W m−2 (for the whole period) over the Mediterranean Sea together with maxima (−50 W m−2) over northern Africa. The top of the atmosphere (TOA) DRF is shown to be highly variable within the domain, due to moderate absorbing properties of dust and changes in the surface albedo. Indeed, 3-D simulations indicate negative forcing over the Mediterranean Sea and Europe and positive forcing over northern Africa.

/pdf/overview-of-the-chemistry-aerosol-mediterranean-experiment-2ny6ds5any.pdf

Overview of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment/Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing on the Mediterranean Climate (ChArMEx/ADRIMED) summer 2013 campaign

Τhe regional climate model RegCM3 coupled with aerosols is used in this study to investigate the direct shortwave effect of anthropogenic aerosols on the regional European climate over a 12 yr period (1996–2007). Aerosol feedback induced small changes in the yearly averaged near-surface temperature over Europe during this period and the greatest negative temperature difference of −0.2°C was observed over the Balkan Peninsula. The field of aerosol-induced near-surface temperature anomalies is not spatially collocated with the field of aerosol radiative forcing as the spatial correlation coefficient is only 0.24. A characteristic of the aerosol-induced changes on near-surface temperature is a dipole pattern in which cooling occurs south of the latitudinal zone from 50 to 55° N and warming occurs northwards. This characteristic dipole pattern of changes in temperature is also seen at higher atmospheric levels but the signal weakens at higher altitudes. A characteristic in the aerosol-induced changes in atmospheric circulation is a negative anomaly of the zonal westerly wind of 500 hPa in the latitudinal belt between 45 and 55° N, which is consistent with a dipole pattern in geopotential heights that consists of an anticyclonic anomaly north of approx. 55° N and cyclonic anomaly south of approx. 45° N. The greatest aerosol-induced negative lower troposphere temperature anomaly over the Balkan Peninsula is associated with the collocated greatest cyclonic anomaly. This reveals the important role of the aerosol-induced circulation changes for the pattern of the temperature anomalies and explains the poor correlation between the patterns of aerosol-induced temperature changes and aerosol radiative forcing. Because the aerosol-induced changes in temperature and atmospheric circulation are at the limits of statistical significance, the present regional climate modelling study indicates there is a limited feedback on the European climate related to the direct shortwave effect of European anthropogenic aerosols.

/pdf/regional-climate-feedback-of-anthropogenic-aerosols-over-hbzejizlun.pdf

Regional climate feedback of anthropogenic aerosols over Europe using RegCM3

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Regional climate feedback of anthropogenic aerosols over Europe using RegCM3