As the Arctic warms, vegetation is responding, and satellite measures indicate widespread greening at high latitudes. This ‘greening of the Arctic’ is among the world’s most important large-scale ecological responses to global climate change. However, a consensus is emerging that the underlying causes and future dynamics of so-called Arctic greening and browning trends are more complex, variable and inherently scale-dependent than previously thought. Here we summarize the complexities of observing and interpreting high-latitude greening to identify priorities for future research. Incorporating satellite and proximal remote sensing with in-situ data, while accounting for uncertainties and scale issues, will advance the study of past, present and future Arctic vegetation change.

/pdf/complexity-revealed-in-the-greening-of-the-arctic-53zvzgjrxk.pdf

Complexity revealed in the greening of the Arctic

Permafrost carbon emissions in a changing Arctic

Satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a proxy of vegetation productivity, is known to be correlated with temperature in northern ecosystems. This relationship, however, may change over time following alternations in other environmental factors. Here we show that above 30°N, the strength of the relationship between the interannual variability of growing season NDVI and temperature (partial correlation coefficient RNDVI-GT) declined substantially between 1982 and 2011. This decrease in RNDVI-GT is mainly observed in temperate and arctic ecosystems, and is also partly reproduced by process-based ecosystem model results. In the temperate ecosystem, the decrease in RNDVI-GT coincides with an increase in drought. In the arctic ecosystem, it may be related to a nonlinear response of photosynthesis to temperature, increase of hot extreme days and shrub expansion over grass-dominated tundra. Our results caution the use of results from interannual time scales to constrain the decadal response of plants to ongoing warming.

Evidence for A Weakening Relationship between Interannual Temperature Variability and Northern Vegetation Activity

Arctic tundra shrubification: a review of mechanisms and impacts on ecosystem carbon balance

The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, leading to rapid changes in species composition and plant functional trait variation. Landscape-level maps of vegetation composition and trait distributions are required to expand spatially-limited plot studies, overcome sampling biases associated with the most accessible research areas, and create baselines from which to monitor environmental change. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have emerged as a low-cost method to generate high-resolution imagery and bridge the gap between fine-scale field studies and lower resolution satellite analyses. Here we used field spectroscopy data (400–2500 nm) and UAV multispectral imagery to test spectral methods of species identification and plant water and chemistry retrieval near Longyearbyen, Svalbard. Using the field spectroscopy data and Random Forest analysis, we were able to distinguish eight common High Arctic plant tundra species with 74% accuracy. Using partial least squares regression (PLSR), we were able to predict corresponding water, nitrogen, phosphorus and C:N values (r 2 = 0.61–0.88, RMSEmean = 12%–64%). We developed analogous models using UAV imagery (five bands: Blue, Green, Red, Red Edge and Near-Infrared) and scaled up the results across a 450 m long nutrient gradient located underneath a seabird colony. At the UAV level, we were able to map three plant functional groups (mosses, graminoids and dwarf shrubs) at 72% accuracy and generate maps of plant chemistry. Our maps show a clear marine-derived fertility gradient, mediated by geomorphology. We used the UAV results to explore two methods of upscaling plant water content to the wider landscape using Sentinel-2A imagery. Our results are pertinent for high resolution, low-cost mapping of the Arctic.

Multiscale mapping of plant functional groups and plant traits in the High Arctic using field spectroscopy, UAV imagery and Sentinel-2A data

Many studies have reported that the Arctic is greening; however, we lack an understanding of the detailed patterns and processes that are leading to this observed greening. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is used to quantify greening, which has had largely positive trends over the last few decades using low spatial resolution satellite imagery such as AVHRR or MODIS over the pan-Arctic region. However, substantial fine scale spatial heterogeneity in the Arctic makes this large-scale investigation hard to interpret in terms of vegetation and other environmental changes. Here we focus on one area of the northern Alaskan Arctic using high spatial resolution (4 m) multispectral satellite imagery from DigitalGlobe™ to analyze the greening trend near Utqiaġvik (formerly known as Barrow) over 14 years from 2002 to 2016. We found that tundra vegetation has been greening (τ = 0.65, p = 0.01, NDVI increase of 0.01 yr−1) despite no overall change in vegetation community composition. The greening is most closely correlated to the number of thawing degree days (R 2 = 0.77, F = 21.5, p < 0.001) which increased in a similar linear trend over the 14 year study period (1.79 ± 0.50 days per year, p < 0.01, τ = −0.56). This suggests that in this Arctic ecosystem, greening is occurring due to a lengthening growing season that appears to stimulate plant productivity without any significant change in vegetation communities. We found that vegetation communities in wetter locations greened about twice as fast as those found in drier conditions supporting the hypothesis that these communities respond more strongly to warming. We suggest that in Arctic environments, vegetation productivity may continue to rise, particularly in wet areas.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5e26/pdf

Arctic greening associated with lengthening growing seasons in Northern Alaska

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Arctic greening associated with lengthening growing seasons in Northern Alaska