The theory of precautionary saving is shown in this paper to be isomorphic to the Arrow-Pratt theory of risk aversion, making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving, and more generally, to the theory of optimal choice under risk In particular, a measure of the strength of precautionary saving motive analogous to the Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion is used to establish a number of new propositions about precautionary saving, and to give a new interpretation of the Oreze-Modigliani substitution effect

Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large

Economic perceptions affect policy preferences and government support. It thus matters that these perceptions are driven by factors other than the economy, including media coverage. We nevertheless know little about how media reflect economic trends, and whether they influence (or are influenced by) public economic perceptions. This article explores the economy, media, and public opinion, focusing in particular on whether media coverage and the public react to changes in or levels of economic activity, and the past, present, or future economy. Analyses rely on content-analytic data drawn from 30,000 news stories over 30 years in the United States. Results indicate that coverage reflects change in the future economy, and that this both influences and is influenced by public evaluations. These patterns make more understandable the somewhat surprising finding of positive coverage and public assessments in the midst of the Great Recession. They also may help explain previous findings in political behavior.

/pdf/it-s-change-in-the-future-economy-stupid-economic-indicators-1oscy5piah.pdf

It's (change in) the (future) economy, stupid: : economic indicators, the media, and public opinion

We propose a model of vision communication that emphasizes the mediating role of follower collective possible selves—that is, self-conception in terms of what the collective (team, organization) which one is a member of may become in the future that can be held by individuals but can also be shared by multiple individuals. Our model is the first to provide an integrative account of how vision communication may stimulate the pursuit of the vision by individuals and collectives, and it complements and extends prior research in three important ways. First, in contrast to an earlier emphasis on the role of individual perceptions of the current self, our model puts perceptions of the future self at the forefront. It captures how vision communication can invite social sharedness of these perceptions, thus doing justice to visions’ nature as images of a future for the collective. Second, in contrast to earlier work on vision communication focusing on general indicators of leadership effectiveness, our model puts what is arguably the most important outcome for vision communication center stage: vision pursuit, the followers’ actions aimed at making the vision reality. We argue that the creation of collective possible selves by followers is crucial for vision communication because collective possible selves explain how vision communication relates to vision pursuit. Third, our model also addresses aspects of vision communication that may facilitate the processes through which visions become internalized as possible selves, and it captures the processes through which such possible selves become shared among members of a collective and lead to collective vision pursuit.

/pdf/an-image-of-who-we-might-become-vision-communication-duvyts3mgq.pdf

An Image of Who We Might Become: Vision Communication, Possible Selves, and Vision Pursuit

It is generally argued that leader visions motivate followers by focusing on reaching desirable end-states. However, it has also been suggested that visions may motivate followers by focusing on avoiding undesirable situations. In this paper we investigate the effects of appeals that focus on preventing an undesirable situation (i.e., prevention-appeals) as well as appeals that focus on promoting a desirable situation (i.e., promotion-appeals). We argue that the effectiveness of promotion- and prevention-appeals is contingent on follower regulatory focus. In two experiments we show that prevention-appeals lead to better performance than promotion-appeals for more prevention-focused followers, while the reverse is true for more promotion-focused followers. We find this pattern for a dispositional measure of follower regulatory focus (Study 1) as well as for a manipulation of follower regulatory focus (Study 2). Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Managing dreams and ambitions: The role of regulatory fit in visionary leadership

In this study of government rhetoric, the author draws on Foucault's concept of governmentality to argue that the officially endorsed neoliberal perspective cannot envision higher education outside economic rationality and proposes an agonistic model of democracy as a framework for conceptualizing and practicing citizenship on campus.

Higher Education for Economic Advancement and Engaged Citizenship: An Analysis of the U.S. Department of Education Discourse

Does the relative optimism of presidential remarks on the economy affect U.S. economic performance? We theorize that the relative optimism of presidential remarks should affect economic performance by altering consumer perceptions of the economic news and consumer sentiment, which in turn affect the risks consumers are willing to take in spending decisions. We measure the relative optimism of presidential remarks on the economy through content analysis of all public statements on the general economy and unemployment from January 1978 through April 2002. Controlling for current and past economic performance, we use vector autoregression analysis to show that presidential remarks significantly affect people's perceptions of the economic news, as well as their confidence about current and future economic conditions. Using simulation analyses, we also demonstrate that presidential rhetoric operating through these indirect channels can have substantial impacts on U.S. economic growth and unemployment. The larg...

https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2005.00332.x

Presidential Rhetoric and the Economy

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Presidential Rhetoric and the Economy