With his new book Warfare in Independent Africa, William Reno joins the many authors trying to better understand intrastate war. A large proportion of that literature looks for macro-level variables that are linked to the incidence of conflict, through their impact on rebel motivation. This results in claims ranging from the omnipresent greed-grievance debate -with Paul Collier (2000) as a prominent proponent of the greed hypothesis and Frances Stewart’s theory of horizontal inequalities (2002) offering perhaps the most nuanced grievance story – to alternative accounts like Homer-Dixon’s work (1994) on resource degradation and population growth.

https://dialnet.unirioja.es/descarga/articulo/5207621.pdf

Warfare in independent Africa

Abstract Chapter 23 takes the lessons of Chapter 21, examines them in light of discussion in Chapter 22, and speculates about the future of US military intervention. It systematically assesses the possible future implementation of the five strategies (and some combinations of those strategies) at the heart of the book. Given the constraints identified in Chapter 22, how will the United States envision the use of war-fighting; clear, hold, build (CHB); community mobilization; decapitation; and homogenization moving forward? The book concludes by highlighting the strengths of the analytical framework developed in Section I as a method capable of understanding fluid, violent, domestic conflicts. 

The Future of American Military Intervention

No wonder you activities are, reading will be always needed. It is not only to fulfil the duties that you need to finish in deadline time. Reading will encourage your mind and thoughts. Of course, reading will greatly develop your experiences about everything. Reading the grass is always greener is also a way as one of the collective books that gives many advantages. The advantages are not only for you, but for the other peoples with those meaningful benefits.

The grass is always greener..

Review of Robert Churchill's, To Shake Their Guns in the Tyrant’s Face: Libertarian Political Violence and the Origins of the Militia Movement (2008).To Shake Their Guns in the Tyrant’s Face is a work in three acts, each a snapshot of a period in our 'collective memory' of the American Revolution.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1751204_code960032.pdf?abstractid=1751204&mirid=4

Monopoly of Violence

After a remarkable 15- hour operation in October 1988, seven- year-old conjoined twins were separated successfully. Between them they had three legs (one incomplete and growing from the back of one of the other legs), a single pelvis, anus, male genitalia and large intestine. They had four kidneys, all misplaced, 2cm from each other, and a common urethra linked to a common bladder. Their circulatory systems were separate and functioning.

Legacy of war.

\n In most contemporary civil wars, governments collude with non-state militias as part of their counterinsurgent strategy. However, governments also restrict the capabilities of their militia allies despite the adverse consequences this may have on their overall counterinsurgent capabilities. Why do governments contain their militia allies while also fighting a rebellion? I argue that variation in militia containment during a civil war is the outcome of a bargaining process over future bargaining power between security or profit-seeking militias and states with time-inconsistent preferences. Strong states and states facing weak rebellions cannot credibly commit to not suppressing their militias, and militias with sufficient capabilities to act independently cannot credibly commit to not betraying the state. States with limited political reach and those facing strong rebellions, however, must retain militia support, which opens a “window of opportunity” for militias to augment their independent capabilities and future bargaining power. Using new data on pro-government militia containment and case illustrations of the Janjaweed in Sudan and Civil Defense Patrols in Guatemala, I find evidence consistent with these claims. Future work must continue to incorporate the agency of militias when studying armed politics, since these bargaining interactions constitute a fundamental yet undertheorized characteristic of war-torn states.

The Puzzle of Militia Containment in Civil War

Policymakers and peacebuilding research often focus on rebel groups when studying demobilization and integration processes, but post-war governments must also manage the non-state militias that hel...

Security Consolidation in the Aftermath of Civil War: Explaining the Fates of Victorious Militias:

/pdf/bayesspsurv-an-r-package-to-estimate-bayesian-spatial-split-1wf87y10d4.pdf

BayesSPsurv: An R Package to Estimate Bayesian (Spatial) Split-Population Survival Models

The underlying risk factors associated with the duration and termination of biological, sociological, economic, or political processes often exhibit spatial clustering. However, existing nonspatial survival models, including those that account for “immune” and “at-risk” subpopulations, assume that these baseline risks are spatially independent, leading to inaccurate inferences in split-population survival settings. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian spatial split-population survival model that addresses these methodological challenges by accounting for spatial autocorrelation among units in terms of their probability of becoming immune and their survival rates. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate that, unlike nonspatial models, this spatial model provides accurate parameter estimates in the presence of spatial autocorrelation. Applying our spatial model to data from published studies on authoritarian reversals and civil war recurrence reveals that accounting for spatial autocorrelation in split-population models leads to new empirical insights, reflecting the need to theoretically and statistically account for space and non-failure inflation in applied research.

/pdf/bayesian-spatial-split-population-survival-model-with-3avqn5xn.pdf

Bayesian Spatial Split-Population Survival Model with Applications to Democratic Regime Failure and Civil War Recurrence

Survival data often include an “immune” or cured fraction of units that will never experience an event and conversely, an “at risk” fraction that can fail or die. It is also plausible that spatial clustering (i.e., spatial autocorrelation) in latent or unmeasured risk factors among adjacent units can affect their odds of being immune and survival time of interest. To address these methodological challenges, this article introduces a class of parametric Spatial split-population survival models—also denoted as Spatial cure models—that explicitly accounts for the influence of spatial autocorrelation among the underlying risk propensities of units on not only their probability of being immune but also their risk of experiencing the event of interest. Our approach is Bayesian in that we account for spatial autocorrelation in unmeasured risk factors across adjacent units in the cure model’s split-stage (cure rate portion) and survival stage via the conditional autoregressive prior (CAR) prior. The article also presents a set of parametric split-population survival models with non-spatial i.i.d frailties and without frailties, and time-varying covariates can be included in all the models mentioned above. Bayesian inference of the non-spatial and spatial cure models is conducted via a hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The relevant full conditional distributions required for MCMC sampling are also derived and presented in the paper. We fit all the models to survival data on post-civil war peace to demonstrate their main applicability and main features.

Bayesian Spatial Split-Population Models for the Social Sciences

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