TITAN2D, VolcFlow, LAHARZ, and ∆H/L or energy cone models each employ different rheologies or empirical relationships and therefore differ in appropriateness of application for different types of mass flows and topographic environments. Previous work has focused on single-deposit comparisons of models. In this work, these models are used to recreate the inundation areas of the dense-basal undercurrent of all 13 mapped, land-confined, Soufriere Hills Volcano dome-collapse pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) emplaced from 1996-2010 to test the relative effectiveness of different computational models. Best-fit model results and their input parameters are compared with results using observation- and deposit-derived input parameters and those using empirically-derived input parameters from the FlowDat global database (Ogburn, 2012, 2014; Ogburn et al. 2016). Not only does this work provide a useful comparison of the operational aspects and behavior of various models, but it also enriches conceptual understanding of the dynamics of the PDCs themselves. Results indicate that TITAN2D is able to reproduce inundated areas well using flux sources, although velocities are often unrealistically high. VolcFlow is also able to replicate flow runout well, but does not capture the lateral spreading in distal regions of larger-volume flows. Both models are better at reproducing the inundated area of single-pulse, valley-confined, smaller-volume flows than sustained, highly unsteady, larger-volume flows, which are often partially unchannelized. LAHARZ is fast to run and can give a rough approximation of inundation, but there are problems with deriving the equation coefficients for PDCs and the designation of starting locations. The ∆H/L cone model is also very quick to run and gives reasonable approximations of runout distance, but does not inherently model flow channelization or directionality and thus unrealistically covers all interfluves.

The relative effectiveness of empirical and physical models for simulating the dense undercurrent of pyroclastic flows under different emplacement conditions

Predicting the block-and-ash flow inundation areas at Volcán de Colima (Colima, Mexico) based on the present day (February 2010) status

Rapid debris flows are among the most destructive natural hazards in steep mountainous terrains. Prediction of their path and impact hinges on knowledge of initiation location and the size and constitution of the released mass. To better link mass release initiation with debris flow paths and runout lengths, we propose to capitalize on a newly developed model for rainfall-induced landslide initiation (“Catchment-scale Hydro-mechanical Landslide Triggering” CHLT model, von Ruette et al. 2013) and couple it with simple estimates of debris flow runout distances and pathways. Landslide locations and volumes provided by the CHLT model are used as inputs to simulate debris flow runout distances with two empirical- and two physically-based models. The debris flow runout models were calibrated using two landslide inventories in the Swiss Alps obtained following a large rainfall event in 2005. We first fitted and tested the models for the “Prattigau” inventory, where detailed information on runout path was available, and then applied the models to landslides inventoried from a different catchment (“Napf”). The predicted debris flow runout distances (emanating from CHLT simulated landslide positions) were well in the range of observed values for the physically-based approaches. The empirical approaches tend to overestimate runout distances relative to observations. These preliminary results demonstrate the added value of linking shallow landslide triggering models with predictions of debris flow runout pathways for a range of soil states and triggering events, thus providing a more complete hazard assessment picture for debris flow exposure at the catchment scale.

Linking rainfall-induced landslides with predictions of debris flow runout distances

Knowledge of volcanic systems and the hazards they produce is rapidly advancing as internet resources become more readily accessible, new and more sensitive field techniques are developed, and ever greater amounts of data are collected. Such rapid advances drive the need for an online collaborative knowledge management system that enables the sharing of volcanological information, and modeling and analysis tools. Vhub (
 http://vhub.org
 ) is a community cyberinfrastructure platform designed for collaboration in volcanology research, education, outreach, and discovery that complements existing volcano databases and other cyberinfrastructure projects. Vhub is unique in its functionality as a nucleus for the creation of collaborative groups focused on issues such as code development, field research, education, and hazard mitigation. In addition, Vhub serves as a clearinghouse and virtual platform for computational tools relating to volcanic processes and data analysis, as well as documentation to aid in the use and understanding of these tools. By providing a means for scientists to easily disseminate data, models, and ideas, Vhub aims to promote collaboration amongst scientists and to provide resources for science education while advancing the state of understanding of volcanoes and the hazards they produce. This paper introduces the Vhub cyberinfrastructure and provides an overview of select hub features and resources.

/pdf/vhub-a-knowledge-management-system-to-facilitate-online-1d5t9yhozp.pdf

Vhub: a knowledge management system to facilitate online collaborative volcano modeling and research

Between the years of 30 b.c. to a.d. 80, during the Late Formative period, the site of Izapa was flooded by lahars associated with an explosive eruption of the San Antonio volcano (part of the Tacana Volcanic Complex). Computer simulations suggest that hot pyroclastic flows did not impact Izapa directly, but did impact the region considerably, filling and clogging the Cahuacan and Mixcun rivers with hot debris. The material was quickly saturated by heavy rains and, as the water from the rivers overtopped the obstruction, remobilized in the form of a hot mixture of mud and water known as a lahar (or flood of volcanic origin), which flowed down through the piedmont zone along the Cahuacan, Mixcun-Suchiate, and Izapa rivers. At Izapa, the flood took the form of a 6-m catastrophic wave of mud and water that likely destroyed crops and caused many causalities, surrounding the architectural mounds at Izapa with a muddy landscape. The floods also dramatically affected the rivers downstream, undoubtedly wreaking serious damage to the transport and trade of goods along the coast.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/82665C9B700DB3DC1892282CCA749521/S095653611800010Xa.pdf/div-class-title-late-formative-flooding-of-izapa-after-an-eruption-of-tacana-volcano-div.pdf

Late formative flooding of izapa after an eruption of tacaná volcano

When characterizing geologic natural hazards, specifically granular flows including pyroclastic flows, debris avalanches and debris flows, perhaps the most important factor to consider is the area of inundation. One of the key parameters demarcating the leading edge of inundation is the run-out distance. To define the run-out distance, it is necessary to know when the flow stops. Numerical experiments are presented for determining a stopping criterion and exploring the suitability of the Savage-Hutter theory for computing inundation areas of granular flows. The stopping criterion is a function of dimensionless average velocity, pile aspect ratio and internal and bed friction angle and can be implemented on either a global (entire flow) or local (small areas of the flow) level. Slumping piles on a horizontal surface, and geophysical flows over complex topography were simulated. Mountainous areas, such as Colima volcano, Mexico; Casita, Nicaragua; Little Tahoma Peak, USA, and the San Bernardino Mountains, USA, were used as test regions. These areas have combinations of steep, open slopes and sinuous channels. Because of differences in topography and physical scaling, slumping piles in the laboratory and geophysical flows in natural terrain must be scaled differently to determine a reasonable dimensionless relationship for the stopping criterion.

Numerical issues in computing inundation areas over natural terrains using Savage-Hutter theory

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Numerical issues in computing inundation areas over natural terrains using Savage-Hutter theory