Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

The formalism of probabilistic graphical models provides a unifying framework for capturing complex dependencies among random variables, and building large-scale multivariate statistical models. Graphical models have become a focus of research in many statistical, computational and mathematical fields, including bioinformatics, communication theory, statistical physics, combinatorial optimization, signal and image processing, information retrieval and statistical machine learning. Many problems that arise in specific instances — including the key problems of computing marginals and modes of probability distributions — are best studied in the general setting. Working with exponential family representations, and exploiting the conjugate duality between the cumulant function and the entropy for exponential families, we develop general variational representations of the problems of computing likelihoods, marginal probabilities and most probable configurations. We describe how a wide variety of algorithms — among them sum-product, cluster variational methods, expectation-propagation, mean field methods, max-product and linear programming relaxation, as well as conic programming relaxations — can all be understood in terms of exact or approximate forms of these variational representations. The variational approach provides a complementary alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo as a general source of approximation methods for inference in large-scale statistical models.

/pdf/graphical-models-exponential-families-and-variational-3i6dwlfta1.pdf

Graphical Models, Exponential Families, and Variational Inference

One of the core problems of modern statistics is to approximate difficult-to-compute probability densities. This problem is especially important in Bayesian statistics, which frames all inference about unknown quantities as a calculation involving the posterior density. In this article, we review variational inference (VI), a method from machine learning that approximates probability densities through optimization. VI has been used in many applications and tends to be faster than classical methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The idea behind VI is to first posit a family of densities and then to find a member of that family which is close to the target density. Closeness is measured by Kullback–Leibler divergence. We review the ideas behind mean-field variational inference, discuss the special case of VI applied to exponential family models, present a full example with a Bayesian mixture of Gaussians, and derive a variant that uses stochastic optimization to scale up to massive data...

pdf/variational-inference-a-review-for-statisticians-4w852eou5m.pdf

Variational Inference: A Review for Statisticians

In this article, we review probabilistic topic models: graphical models that can be used to summarize a large collection of documents with a smaller number of distributions over words. Those distributions are called "topics" because, when fit to data, they capture the salient themes that run through the collection. We describe both finite-dimensional parametric topic models and their Bayesian nonparametric counterparts, which are based on the hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP). We discuss two extensions of topic models to time-series data-one that lets the topics slowly change over time and one that lets the assumed prevalence of the topics change. Finally, we illustrate the application of topic models to nontext data, summarizing some recent research results in image analysis.

/pdf/probabilistic-topic-models-4cq6hpiogr.pdf

Probabilistic Topic Models

When a parameter space has a certain underlying structure, the ordinary gradient of a function does not represent its steepest direction, but the natural gradient does. Information geometry is used for calculating the natural gradients in the parameter space of perceptrons, the space of matrices (for blind source separation), and the space of linear dynamical systems (for blind source deconvolution). The dynamical behavior of natural gradient online learning is analyzed and is proved to be Fisher efficient, implying that it has asymptotically the same performance as the optimal batch estimation of parameters. This suggests that the plateau phenomenon, which appears in the backpropagation learning algorithm of multilayer perceptrons, might disappear or might not be so serious when the natural gradient is used. An adaptive method of updating the learning rate is proposed and analyzed.

Natural gradient works efficiently in learning

We consider the problem of learning the optimal action-value function in the discounted-reward Markov decision processes (MDPs). We prove a new PAC bound on the sample-complexity of model-based value iteration algorithm in the presence of the generative model, which indicates that for an MDP with N state-action pairs and the discount factor γ ∈ [0, 1) only O(N log(N/δ)/(1 - γ)3e2)) samples are required to find an e-optimal estimation of the action-value function with the probability 1 - δ. We also prove a matching lower bound of Θ(N log(N/δ)/((1 - γ)3e2)) on the sample complexity of estimating the optimal action-value function by every RL algorithm. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first matching result on the sample complexity of estimating the optimal (action-) value function in which the upper bound matches the lower bound of RL in terms of N, e, δ and 1/(1-γ). Also, both our lower bound and our upper bound significantly improve on the state-of-the-art in terms of 1/(1 - γ).

/pdf/on-the-sample-complexity-of-reinforcement-learning-with-a-yzejsumz4s.pdf

On the Sample Complexity of Reinforcement Learning with a Generative Model

We reformulate a class of non-linear stochastic optimal control problems introduced by Todorov (2007) as a Kullback-Leibler (KL) minimization problem. As a result, the optimal control computation reduces to an inference computation and approximate inference methods can be applied to efficiently compute approximate optimal controls. We show how this KL control theory contains the path integral control method as a special case. We provide an example of a block stacking task and a multi-agent cooperative game where we demonstrate how approximate inference can be successfully applied to instances that are too complex for exact computation. We discuss the relation of the KL control approach to other inference approaches to control.

/pdf/optimal-control-as-a-graphical-model-inference-problem-489ku87qbe.pdf

Optimal control as a graphical model inference problem

Loopy and generalized belief propagation are popular algorithms for approximate inference in Markov random fields and Bayesian networks. Fixed points of these algorithms correspond to extrema of the Bethe and Kikuchi free energy (Yedidia et al., 2001). However, belief propagation does not always converge, which motivates approaches that explicitly minimize the Kikuchi/Bethe free energy, such as CCCP (Yuille, 2002) and UPS (Teh and Welling, 2002). Here we describe a class of algorithms that solves this typically non-convex constrained minimization problem through a sequence of convex constrained minimizations of upper bounds on the Kikuchi free energy. Intuitively one would expect tighter bounds to lead to faster algorithms, which is indeed convincingly demonstrated in our simulations. Several ideas are applied to obtain tight convex bounds that yield dramatic speed-ups over CCCP.

/pdf/approximate-inference-and-constrained-optimization-1b4rmfgi6y.pdf

Approximate inference and constrained optimization

In this article we consider the issue of optimal control in collaborative multi-agent systems with stochastic dynamics. The agents have a joint task in which they have to reach a number of target states. The dynamics of the agents contains additive control and additive noise, and the autonomous part factorizes over the agents. Full observation of the global state is assumed. The goal is to minimize the accumulated joint cost, which consists of integrated instantaneous costs and a joint end cost. The joint end cost expresses the joint task of the agents. The instantaneous costs are quadratic in the control and factorize over the agents. The optimal control is given as a weighted linear combination of single-agent to single-target controls. The single-agent to single-target controls are expressed in terms of diffusion processes. These controls, when not closed form expressions, are formulated in terms of path integrals, which are calculated approximately by Metropolis-Hastings sampling. The weights in the control are interpreted as marginals of a joint distribution over agent to target assignments. The structure of the latter is represented by a graphical model, and the marginals are obtained by graphical model inference. Exact inference of the graphical model will break down in large systems, and so approximate inference methods are needed. We use naive mean field approximation and belief propagation to approximate the optimal control in systems with linear dynamics. We compare the approximate inference methods with the exact solution, and we show that they can accurately compute the optimal control. Finally, we demonstrate the control method in multi-agent systems with nonlinear dynamics consisting of up to 80 agents that have to reach an equal number of target states.

/pdf/graphical-model-inference-in-optimal-control-of-stochastic-15ekjxcgzx.pdf

Graphical model inference in optimal control of stochastic multi-agent systems

Recently path integral methods have been developed for stochastic optimal control for a wide class of models with non-linear dynamics in continuous space-time. Path integral methods find the control that minimizes the expected cost-to-go. In this paper we show that under the same assumptions, path integral methods generalize directly to risk sensitive stochastic optimal control. Here the method minimizes in expectation an exponentially weighted cost-to-go. Depending on the exponential weight, risk seeking or risk averse behaviour is obtained. We demonstrate the approach on risk sensitive stochastic optimal control problems beyond the linear-quadratic case, showing the intricate interaction of multi-modal control with risk sensitivity.

/pdf/risk-sensitive-path-integral-control-44mqma4e2t.pdf

Risk sensitive path integral control

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