Land use change-for example, the conversion of natural habitats to agricultural or urban ecosystems-is widely recognized to influence the risk and emergence of zoonotic disease in humans1,2. However, whether such changes in risk are underpinned by predictable ecological changes remains unclear. It has been suggested that habitat disturbance might cause predictable changes in the local diversity and taxonomic composition of potential reservoir hosts, owing to systematic, trait-mediated differences in species resilience to human pressures3,4. Here we analyse 6,801 ecological assemblages and 376 host species worldwide, controlling for research effort, and show that land use has global and systematic effects on local zoonotic host communities. Known wildlife hosts of human-shared pathogens and parasites overall comprise a greater proportion of local species richness (18-72% higher) and total abundance (21-144% higher) in sites under substantial human use (secondary, agricultural and urban ecosystems) compared with nearby undisturbed habitats. The magnitude of this effect varies taxonomically and is strongest for rodent, bat and passerine bird zoonotic host species, which may be one factor that underpins the global importance of these taxa as zoonotic reservoirs. We further show that mammal species that harbour more pathogens overall (either human-shared or non-human-shared) are more likely to occur in human-managed ecosystems, suggesting that these trends may be mediated by ecological or life-history traits that influence both host status and tolerance to human disturbance5,6. Our results suggest that global changes in the mode and the intensity of land use are creating expanding hazardous interfaces between people, livestock and wildlife reservoirs of zoonotic disease.

/pdf/zoonotic-host-diversity-increases-in-human-dominated-59z871593w.pdf

Zoonotic host diversity increases in human-dominated ecosystems

Zoonotic diseases are infectious diseases of humans caused by pathogens that are shared between humans and other vertebrate animals Previously, pristine natural areas with high biodiversity were seen as likely sources of new zoonotic pathogens, suggesting that biodiversity could have negative impacts on human health At the same time, biodiversity has been recognized as potentially benefiting human health by reducing the transmission of some pathogens that have already established themselves in human populations These apparently opposing effects of biodiversity in human health may now be reconcilable Recent research demonstrates that some taxa are much more likely to be zoonotic hosts than others are, and that these animals often proliferate in human-dominated landscapes, increasing the likelihood of spillover In less-disturbed areas, however, these zoonotic reservoir hosts are less abundant and nonreservoirs predominate Thus, biodiversity loss appears to increase the risk of human exposure to both new and established zoonotic pathogens This new synthesis of the effects of biodiversity on zoonotic diseases presents an opportunity to articulate the next generation of research questions that can inform management and policy Future studies should focus on collecting and analyzing data on the diversity, abundance, and capacity to transmit of the taxa that actually share zoonotic pathogens with us To predict and prevent future epidemics, researchers should also focus on how these metrics change in response to human impacts on the environment, and how human behaviors can mitigate these effects Restoration of biodiversity is an important frontier in the management of zoonotic disease risk

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/118/17/e2023540118.full.pdf

Impacts of biodiversity and biodiversity loss on zoonotic diseases.

Understanding interspecific viral transmission is key to understanding viral ecology and evolution, disease spillover into humans, and the consequences of global change. Prior studies have uncovered macroecological drivers of viral sharing, but analyses have never attempted to predict viral sharing in a pan-mammalian context. Using a conservative modelling framework, we confirm that host phylogenetic similarity and geographic range overlap are strong, nonlinear predictors of viral sharing among species across the entire mammal class. Using these traits, we predict global viral sharing patterns of 4196 mammal species and show that our simulated network successfully predicts viral sharing and reservoir host status using internal validation and an external dataset. We predict high rates of mammalian viral sharing in the tropics, particularly among rodents and bats, and within- and between-order sharing differed geographically and taxonomically. Our results emphasize the importance of ecological and phylogenetic factors in shaping mammalian viral communities, and provide a robust, general model to predict viral host range and guide pathogen surveillance and conservation efforts.

/pdf/predicting-the-global-mammalian-viral-sharing-network-using-4wzmis74f9.pdf

Predicting the global mammalian viral sharing network using phylogeography.

For decades, people have reduced the transmission of pathogens by adding low-quality hosts to managed environments like agricultural fields. More recently, there has been interest in whether similar 'dilution effects' occur in natural disease systems, and whether these effects are eroded as diversity declines. For some pathogens of plants, humans and other animals, the highest-quality hosts persist when diversity is lost, so that high-quality hosts dominate low-diversity communities, resulting in greater pathogen transmission. Meta-analyses reveal that these natural dilution effects are common. However, studying them remains challenging due to limitations on the ability of researchers to manipulate many disease systems experimentally, difficulties of acquiring data on host quality and confusion about what should and should not be considered a dilution effect. Because dilution effects are widely used in managed disease systems and have been documented in a variety of natural disease systems, their existence should not be considered controversial. Important questions remain about how frequently they occur and under what conditions to expect them. There is also ongoing confusion about their relationships to both pathogen spillover and general biogeographical correlations between diversity and disease, which has resulted in an inconsistent and confusing literature. Progress will require rigorous and creative research.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ele.13875

Dilution effects in disease ecology.

Better methods to predict and prevent the emergence of zoonotic viruses could support future efforts to reduce the risk of epidemics. We propose a network science framework for understanding and predicting human and animal susceptibility to viral infections. Related approaches have so far helped to identify basic biological rules that govern cross-species transmission and structure the global virome. We highlight ways to make modelling both accurate and actionable, and discuss the barriers that prevent researchers from translating viral ecology into public health policies that could prevent future pandemics.

The science of the host-virus network.

Pathogens that spill over between species cause a significant human and animal health burden. Here, we describe characteristics of animal reservoirs that are required for pathogen spillover. We assembled and analyzed a database of 330 disease systems in which a pathogen spills over from a reservoir of one or more species. Three-quarters of reservoirs included wildlife, and 84% included mammals. Further, 65% of pathogens depended on a community of reservoir hosts, rather than a single species, for persistence. Among mammals, the most frequently identified reservoir hosts were rodents, artiodactyls, and carnivores. The distribution among orders of mammalian species identified as reservoirs did not differ from that expected by chance. Among disease systems with high priority pathogens and epidemic potential, we found birds, primates, and bats to be overrepresented. We also analyzed the life history traits of mammalian reservoir hosts and compared them to mammals as a whole. Reservoir species had faster life history characteristics than mammals overall, exhibiting traits associated with greater reproductive output rather than long-term survival. Thus, we find that in many respects, reservoirs of spillover pathogens are indeed special. The described patterns provide a useful resource for studying and managing emerging infectious diseases.

/pdf/are-disease-reservoirs-special-taxonomic-and-life-history-4hidib2s2k.pdf

Are disease reservoirs special? Taxonomic and life history characteristics.

Through their potentially devastating impacts on the environment, wildfires may impact pathogen, vector, and host interactions, leading to changing risks of vector-borne disease in humans and other animals. Despite established risks for tick-borne disease and increasing frequency and severity of wildfires in the United States, impacts of wildfire on ticks and tick-borne pathogens are understudied. In 2015, the large Wragg fire extensively burned a long-term field site at Stebbins Cold Canyon University of California Reserve (CC). We characterized the tick, reservoir host and pathogen community over a two-year period after the burn, comparing our findings to pre-fire data and to data from Quail Ridge Reserve (QR), a nearby unburned site. After the fire, there were 5.5 times more rodent, primarily Peromyscus spp., captures at CC than QR (compared to 3.5 times more pre-fire). There were significantly fewer dusky-footed woodrats (Neotoma fuscipes) at both sites post-fire, likely due to drought but not fire. Pre-fire tick infestation prevalence on rodents was comparable across sites (12.5% at CC and 9.9% at QR) and remained low at CC post-fire (13.7%) but was significantly higher at QR (48.0%), suggesting that ticks or their habitat were destroyed during the burn. Normalized difference vegetation indices documented a 16-fold loss of vegetation post- compared to pre-fire at CC; loss of vegetation and direct impacts on fauna are likely the main drivers of the post-fire differences in ticks we saw at CC. These data contribute to our understanding of tick-associated disease risks in our increasingly disturbed landscapes.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jvec.12398

Response of small mammal and tick communities to a catastrophic wildfire and implications for tick-borne pathogens.

Timber harvest may impact tick-borne disease by affecting small mammal and tick community structures. We assessed tick and small mammal populations in older second-growth redwood (Sequoia sempervirens (D. Don) Endl) habitat at two harvested sites in Santa Cruz County, California, where local risk of tick-borne disease is high and determined the prevalence of tick-borne pathogens in ticks. After single-tree removal harvest in 2014, there was a modest reduction in canopy, primarily toward the end of the study. Harvested sites showed strong reductions in California mouse (Peromyscus californicus, (Gambel)) captures 2-yr after harvest, resolving such that treatments and controls were comparable by the end of the study. Following harvest, treated sites experienced a transient decreased tick infestation while control plots experienced an increase. Ixodes angustus (Neumann) infestation probability on harvested plots decreased immediately after harvest, increasing with time but remaining lower than control plots, whereas I. pacificus (Cooley and Kohls) prevalence was higher shortly after the harvest on harvested plots, and continued to increase. Mean abundance of ticks on vegetation increased on control plots. We detected Borrelia burgdorferi ((Johnson et al.) Baranton) and Anaplasma phagocytophilum ((Foggie 1949) Dumler) in 3.8 and 3.1% of ticks on rodents, but no differences were associated with harvest. Impacts of forest harvest on tick-borne disease depend on removal practice and intensity, whether or not hosts are habitat specialists, and whether or not ticks are host specialists.

Impacts of Timber Harvest on Communities of Small Mammals, Ticks, and Tick-Borne Pathogens in a High-Risk Landscape in Northern California.

Response of Tick-borne Disease to Fire and Timber Harvesting

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Are disease reservoirs special? Taxonomic and life history characteristics.

Response of small mammal and tick communities to a catastrophic wildfire and implications for tick-borne pathogens.

Impacts of Timber Harvest on Communities of Small Mammals, Ticks, and Tick-Borne Pathogens in a High-Risk Landscape in Northern California.

Response of Tick-borne Disease to Fire and Timber Harvesting