The relevance of the scientific article lies in the need to substantiate the importance of the role of currency exchange rates for the robust functioning of the country’s economy. The purpose of the article is to analyse the dynamics of foreign currency exchange rates, mainly the dollar, and the euro, in Ukraine, taking into account factors of seasonality and demand for government bonds. The main methods used in the paper are statistical empirical research methods, in particular modelling. It was determined that the export of raw materials, mainly steel, and various agricultural crops such as wheat, corn, sunflower oil, soybeans, etc., plays a particularly important role in Ukraine. It was found out that the mentioned fluctuations in export are one of the reasons for the currency seasonality, but not the only one or the main reason, as the exchange rate is strongly influenced by oil, gas, and other energy resources prices, which the country needs constantly, especially during the heating season. The exchange rate of the hryvnia over the last five years within the context of the National Bank of Ukraine has also been analysed. It was found that the demand for government loans bonds is one of the most important factors in considering the foreign currencies exchange rates in Ukraine. To make models more plausible and to reduce the influence of other factors in determining seasonality of the currency with certain currency pairs with the dollar, euro, yen, zloty, and ruble, the data for the last several years has been used, which are less likely to be distorted by the influence of external factors. It has been confirmed that a successful trade policy is a key source of currency stabilisation in Ukraine. The article is useful for studying the functioning of currencies in general; for studying the economy of Ukraine, especially the country’s currency issues; for students of various economic disciplines

Analysis of the Dynamics of Foreign Currency Exchange Rates in Ukraine Including Seasonality Factors and Demand for Domestic Government Loans Bonds (Over 5-10 Years)

The article focuses on determining the impact of the consequences of the russian invasion of Ukraine on macroeconomic stability and the exchange rate of the national currency. The relevance of the chosen topic is substantiated. The problems of assessing the negative consequences of the russian invasion of Ukraine are outlined, including: violation of general macroeconomic stability, significant fluctuations in foreign exchange markets and destabilization of the national currency. The study considers the theoretical and methodological foundations of the study of foreign exchange markets and analyzes global trends in the development of the global currency market. The structure of world currency reserves is analyzed according to the assessment of the currency composition of the official currency reserve (COFER) of the IMF. The analysis of the dynamics of average spreads of purchase and sale of reserve currencies against the US dollar for traditional and non-traditional reserve currencies is carried out. As a result of studying world trends, the main factors that affect fluctuations in the exchange rate of currencies are identified. The main problems regarding the functioning of the national currency market in the context of the hostilities in Ukraine are outlined, in particular, the existing inflationary processes are analyzed. The dynamics of currency interventions of the NBU for 2021-2022 is considered. The features (advantages) of the application and the results of using the singular spectral analysis (SSA) method for predicting fluctuations in the US dollar and Euro in the national foreign exchange market are presented. The practical implementation of this method was carried out using the CaterpillarSSA software product. Evaluation of the accuracy of the forecast is performed using the MAPE method. The obtained forecast errors (less than 6%) suggest that the constructed models are adequate and can be used for further research and recommendations. Thus, it can be concluded that for Ukraine the most important factors affecting the exchange rate are seasonality and successful trade policy of the government, which, in turn, largely depends on resource prices. The carried out research allowed to highlight the features and main aspects of the functioning of the foreign exchange market of Ukraine during the period of ongoing military aggression. 

A Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of the Components of the National Market of Foreign Exchange in the Conditions of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Over the past few decades, governments have increasingly used bonds to acquire revenue to finance development and infrastructure projects. Several internal and even external factors influence the bond price as well as the bond yield rate. Developing countries use government bonds to finance developmental projects, but their bond yield rates are relatively high compared to developed countries, resulting in high levels of debt repayments. This study has the primary aim to analyse the relationship between the government bond yield and several macro-economic variables, including the exchange rate, repurchase rate, inflation and government debt. The study used South Africa as a proxy for developing countries. A quantitative methodology was used through the estimation of an econometric model using monthly time series data from 1994 to 2020. Government bond yield was selected as the dependent variable with independent variables including the exchange rate, the repo rate, inflation and government debt. Both long- and short-run relationships were found between the variables using the Johansen co-integration and vector error correction model (VECM) methods. These long-run results are important as they indicate that a depreciating exchange rate, rising interest rates and inflation, as well as rising debt levels, lead to increasing bond yields, which lead to increasing debt repayments. In conclusion, the results of the study indicated that a stable macro-economic environment is required for economic growth, while volatile exchange rates and yields do negatively affect growth; rising inflation does lead to rising repo rates, depreciating exchange rates; inflation should be contained within the inflation targets; and lastly, policy certainty is important to keep rates and yields stable, which could lead to investor confidence.

An evaluation of the relationship between government bond yields, exchange rates and other monetary variables : the South African case

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An evaluation of the relationship between government bond yields, exchange rates and other monetary variables : the South African case