We introduce Version 2 of our widely used 1-km Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps for historical and future climate conditions. The historical maps (encompassing 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990, and 1991-2020) are based on high-resolution, observation-based climatologies, while the future maps (encompassing 2041-2070 and 2071-2099) are based on downscaled and bias-corrected climate projections for seven shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). We evaluated 67 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and kept a subset of 42 with the most plausible CO2-induced warming rates. We estimate that from 1901-1930 to 1991-2020, approximately 5% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) transitioned to a different major Köppen-Geiger class. Furthermore, we project that from 1991-2020 to 2071-2099, 5% of the land surface will transition to a different major class under the low-emissions SSP1-2.6 scenario, 8% under the middle-of-the-road SSP2-4.5 scenario, and 13% under the high-emissions SSP5-8.5 scenario. The Köppen-Geiger maps, along with associated confidence estimates, underlying monthly air temperature and precipitation data, and sensitivity metrics for the CMIP6 models, can be accessed at www.gloh2o.org/koppen . 

High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections

Abstract Human development has ushered in an era of converging crises: climate change, ecological destruction, disease, pollution, and socioeconomic inequality. This review synthesizes the breadth of these interwoven emergencies and underscores the urgent need for comprehensive, integrated action. Propelled by imperialism, extractive capitalism, and a surging population, we are speeding past Earth's material limits, destroying critical ecosystems, and triggering irreversible changes in biophysical systems that underpin the Holocene climatic stability which fostered human civilization. The consequences of these actions are disproportionately borne by vulnerable populations, further entrenching global inequities. Marine and terrestrial biomes face critical tipping points, while escalating challenges to food and water access foreshadow a bleak outlook for global security. Against this backdrop of Earth at risk, we call for a global response centered on urgent decarbonization, fostering reciprocity with nature, and implementing regenerative practices in natural resource management. We call for the elimination of detrimental subsidies, promotion of equitable human development, and transformative financial support for lower income nations. A critical paradigm shift must occur that replaces exploitative, wealth-oriented capitalism with an economic model that prioritizes sustainability, resilience, and justice. We advocate a global cultural shift that elevates kinship with nature and communal well-being, underpinned by the recognition of Earth’s finite resources and the interconnectedness of its inhabitants. The imperative is clear: to navigate away from this precipice, we must collectively harness political will, economic resources, and societal values to steer toward a future where human progress does not come at the cost of ecological integrity and social equity.

Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just and sustainable future

Climate change is a defining issue for our generation. The carbon footprint of clinical practice accounts for 4.7% of European greenhouse gas emissions, with the European Union ranking as the third largest contributor to the global healthcare industry's carbon footprint, after the United States and China. Recognising the importance of urgent action, the European Society of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care (ESAIC) adopted the Glasgow Declaration on Environmental Sustainability in June 2023. Building on this initiative, the ESAIC Sustainability Committee now presents a consensus document in perioperative sustainability. Acknowledging wider dimensions of sustainability, beyond the environmental one, the document recognizes healthcare professionals as cornerstones for sustainable care, and puts forward recommendations in four main areas: direct emissions, energy, supply chain and waste management, and psychological and self-care of healthcare professionals. Given the urgent need to cut global carbon emissions, and the scarcity of evidence-based literature on perioperative sustainability, our methodology is based on expert opinion recommendations. A total of 90 recommendations were drafted by 13 sustainability experts in anaesthesia in March 2023, then validated by 36 experts from 24 different countries in a two-step Delphi validation process in May and June 2023. To accommodate different possibilities for action in high- versus middle-income countries, an 80% agreement threshold was set to ease implementation of the recommendations Europe-wide. All recommendations surpassed the 80% agreement threshold in the first Delphi round, and 88 recommendations achieved an agreement >90% in the second round. Recommendations include the use of very low fresh gas flow, choice of anaesthetic drug, energy and water preserving measures, "5R" policies including choice of plastics and their disposal, and recommendations to keep a healthy work environment or on the importance of fatigue in clinical practice. Executive summaries of recommendations in areas 1, 2 and 3 are available as cognitive aids that can be made available for quick reference in the operating room.

European Society of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care consensus document on sustainability: 4 scopes to achieve a more sustainable practice.

Abstract Ships brighten low marine clouds from emissions of sulfur and aerosols, resulting in visible “ship tracks”. In 2020, new shipping regulations mandated an ∼80% reduction in the allowed fuel sulfur content. Recent observations indicate that visible ship tracks have decreased. Model simulations indicate that since 2020 shipping regulations have induced a net radiative forcing of +0.12 Wm −2 . Analysis of recent temperature anomalies indicates Northern Hemisphere surface temperature anomalies in 2022–2023 are correlated with observed cloud radiative forcing and the cloud radiative forcing is spatially correlated with the simulated radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping emission changes. Shipping emissions changes could be accelerating global warming. To better constrain these estimates, better access to ship position data and understanding of ship aerosol emissions are needed. Understanding the risks and benefits of emissions reductions and the difficultly in robust attribution highlights the large uncertainty in attributing proposed deliberate climate intervention. 

Has Reducing Ship Emissions Brought Forward Global Warming?

Climate change is a profound crisis that affects every aspect of life, including public health. Changes in environmental conditions can promote the spread of pathogens and the development of new mutants and strains. Early detection is essential in managing and controlling this spread and improving overall health outcomes. This perspective article introduces basic biosensing concepts and various biosensors, including electrochemical, optical, mass-based, nano biosensors, and single-molecule biosensors, as important sustainability and public health preventive tools. The discussion also includes how the sustainability of a biosensor is crucial to minimizing environmental impacts and ensuring the long-term availability of vital technologies and resources for healthcare, environmental monitoring, and beyond. One promising avenue for pathogen screening could be the electrical detection of biomolecules at the single-molecule level, and some recent developments based on single-molecule bioelectronics using the Scanning Tunneling Microscopy-assisted break junctions (STM-BJ) technique are shown here. Using this technique, biomolecules can be detected with high sensitivity, eliminating the need for amplification and cell culture steps, thereby enhancing speed and efficiency. Furthermore, the STM-BJ technique demonstrates exceptional specificity, accurately detects single-base mismatches, and exhibits a detection limit essentially at the level of individual biomolecules. Finally, a case is made here for sustainable biosensors, how they can help, the paradigm shift needed to achieve them, and some potential applications. 

Biosensors for Public Health and Environmental Monitoring: The Case for Sustainable Biosensing

Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 1.2 +/- 0.3{\deg}C (2$\sigma$) per W/m$^2$. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era -- including"slow"feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases -- supports this ECS and implies that CO$_2$ was about 300 ppm in the Pliocene and 400 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, thus exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming including slow feedbacks for today's human-made greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing (4.1 W/m$^2$) is 10{\deg}C, reduced to 8{\deg}C by today's aerosols. Decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970-2010 global warming rate of 0.18{\deg}C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27{\deg}C per decade. Under the current geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will likely pierce the 1.5{\deg}C ceiling in the 2020s and 2{\deg}C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming pumps up hydrologic extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: 1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions, 2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and 3) intervention with Earth's radiation imbalance to phase down today's massive human-made"geo-transformation"of Earth's climate. These changes will not happen with the current geopolitical approach, but current political crises present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation.

pdf/global-warming-in-the-pipeline-1cteqdkr.pdf

Global warming in the pipeline

Handle everyday research tasks with reliable, citation-backed results

Your personal Research Agent to handle research tasks with citation-backed results

Popular Tasks used by Researchers

How can I help with your research?

Meet SciSpace

Get more enhanced response by uploading the PDFs you want me to reference.

No relevant PDFs in your library

SciSpace is the AI research assistant for academics. Run systematic literature reviews on 280M+ papers, and write papers with cited sources. Trusted by 1M+ students, PhDs & researchers.

SciSpace | AI for Research

Analyze PDFs

Code & Manuscripts

Funding & Grants

Literature & Patents

Medical & Clinical Data

Systematic Review

Visualize & Present

Web & Data

Build a Google Scholar-like website for your research.

Build a website

Create charts and images for your research

Create a Chart

Write a paper for submission to a journal

Draft a manuscript

Patent Search

Design eye-catching scientific posters in minutes.

Scientific Poster Generation

Systematic Literature Review

One task is running at the moment. Your messages will be shown right after.

Drag and drop or click here to browse

Loved by <highlight>1 million+</highlight> researchers

Extract a list of specific topics and their sources from unstructured text

Topics

Compare and analyze relevant papers that matches with your search

Papers

Get insights from PDFs and bookmarked papers from your library

My library

Recent searches

Try searching for:

Catch AI-generated content in scholarly and non-scholarly content

{ai} Detector

Ai Writer

Get PDF Summaries, highlighted text explanations 

Chat with PDF

Effortlessly create in-text citations and bibliographies in APA and 2,500 other formats

Citation generator

Get explanations, summaries, and answers on academic papers

Ease up your research workflow with {scispace}'s cohort of exciting AI tools

Elevate your academic writing skills and convey your ideas the way you want

Paraphraser

Explore our range of reading and writing tools

Your file is being prepared and should be ready in a few minutes. If it's a large file, it might take a bit longer. You can close this window, and we'll email you the file when it's done.

You have reached a maximum limit of <strong>{limit}</strong> columns in the table. Remove at least <strong>1</strong> column to add or create another one.

Awareness

Author Tools

Chat about Author

Papers

Global warming in the pipeline