Prefaces Acknowledgements 1. Mountains and their climatological study 2. Geographical controls of mountain meteorological elements 3. Circulation systems related to orography 4. Climatic characteristics of mountains 5. Regional case studies 6. Mountain bioclimatology 7. Changes in mountain climates Appendix General index Author index.

Mountain Weather and Climate

Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect temperature changes in India

Accurately predicting precipitation trends is vital in the economic development of a country This research investigated precipitation variability across 15 stations in the Swat River basin, Pakistan, over a 51-year study period (1961–2011) Nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho (SR) statistical tests were used to detect trends in monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation, and the trend-free prewhitening approach was applied to eliminate serial correlation in the precipitation time series The results highlighted a mix of positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) trends in monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation One station in particular, the Saidu Sharif station, showed the maximum number of significant monthly precipitation events, followed by Abazai, Khairabad, and Malakand On the seasonal time scale, precipitation trends changed from the summer to the autumn season The Saidu Sharif station revealed the highest positive trend (748 mm/year) in annual precipitation In the entire Swat River basin, statistically insignificant trends were found in the subbasins for the annual precipitation series; however, the Lower Swat subbasin showed the maximum quantitative increase in the precipitation at a rate of 218 mm/year The performance of the MK and SR tests was consistent at the verified significance level

/pdf/precipitation-trends-over-time-using-mann-kendall-and-3zjpemsw48.pdf

Precipitation Trends over Time Using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho Tests in Swat River Basin, Pakistan

Glacier outlines are mapped for the upper Bhagirathi and Saraswati/Alaknanda basins of the Garhwal Himalaya using Corona and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) satellite images acquired in 1968 and 2006, respectively. A subset of glaciers was also mapped using Landsat TM images acquired in 1990. Glacier area decreased from 599.9 ± 15.6 km2 (1968) to 572.5 ± 18.0 km2 (2006), a loss of 4.6 ± 2.8%. Glaciers in the Saraswati/Alaknanda basin and upper Bhagirathi basin lost 18.4 ± 9.0 km2 (5.7 ± 2.7%) and 9.0 ± 7.7 km2 (3.3 ± 2.8%), respectively, from 1968 to 2006. Garhwal Himalayan glacier retreat rates are lower than previously reported. More recently (1990–2006), recession rates have increased. The number of glaciers in the study region increased from 82 in 1968 to 88 in 2006 due to fragmentation of glaciers. Smaller glaciers ( 50 km2) which lost 2.8 ± 2.7% (0.074 ± 0.071 % a−1). From 1968 to 2006, the debris-covered glacier area increased by 17.8 ± 3.1% (0.46 ± 0.08% a−1) in the Saraswati/Alaknanda basin and 11.8 ± 3.0% (0.31 ± 0.08% a−1) in the upper Bhagirathi basin. Climate records from Mukhim (∼1900 m a.s.l.) and Bhojbasa (∼3780 m a.s.l.) meteorological stations were used to analyze climate conditions and trends, but the data are too limited to make firm conclusions regarding glacier–climate interactions.

/pdf/glacier-changes-in-the-garhwal-himalaya-india-from-1968-to-5574k3oqpq.pdf

Glacier changes in the Garhwal Himalaya, India, from 1968 to 2006 based on remote sensing

Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of precipitation during 1901–2002 at Madhya Pradesh, India

The present study attempts to explore changes in rainfall pattern in the Indian Himalayas during 20th century using 80-year data from 30 rain gauge stations maintained by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Modified Mann–Kendall test (MMK) was applied to detect trend, and Pettitt–Mann–Whitney (PMW) test was employed to detect possible shift. Implication of the change is discussed in terms of percentage change over mean. The results show that the most probable year of change in annual as well as monsoon rainfall in the region is 1964. There was an increasing trend upto 1964 (corroborating with all India and nearby plains), followed by a decreasing trend in 1965–1980 (exclusive to this region). In the entire region, changes are most conspicuous over the Shivaliks and the southern part of the Lesser Himalayas. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Analysis of historical changes in rainfall in the Indian Himalayas

The spatial and temporal variability of rainfall patterns in the northwestern belt of India has been monitored over a period of 60 years (1949–2009). The trends and shifts in the data have been calculated using the Modified Mann-Kendall test (MMK) and the Pettitt-Mann-Whitney test (PMW), respectively. To explain the shifts in rainfall at different stations in the northwestern region, the dominant climate indices were analysed for pre- and post-shift years. The climate indices and rainfall distribution data were subjected to Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in order to understand the nature of rainfall distribution and the dominant indices related to its variability. The analysis of PCA results with respect to season shows that each station is influenced by one or more climatic factors; however, these factors are themselves influenced by other important atmospheric phenomena, such as western disturbances. The preliminary principle component analysis of rainfall data with respect to climatic indices indicates that Nino 3.4 and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are the dominant climatic indices that have caused a shift in the rainfall pattern of western India, along with land use/land cover changes.

Understanding trends and shifts in rainfall in parts of northwestern India based on global climatic indices

Trend analysis and ARIMA modelling of pre-monsoon rainfall data for western India

Continuous rainfall data in grid format are required to run models for hydrological and agricultural research as well as water resources planning and management. The present work attempts to prepare a normal annual rainfall map in Himalayan region of India lying in Uttarakhand state at 1 km spatial resolution which currently is not available. In the region, India Meteorological Department maintains observatories/raingauge stations and data from 44 stations were used in this study. A comparative analysis of interpolation techniques like Inverse Distance Weighted, Polynomial, Splines, Ordinary Kriging and Universal Kriging shows that Universal Kriging with hole-effect model and natural logarithmic transformation with constant trend having Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 328.7 is the best choice. This is followed by Ordinary Kriging (RMSE 329.1), Splines (RMSE 392.4), Inverse Distance Weighted (RMSE 409.8) and Polynomial Interpolation (RMSE 418.5). Cross validation of the results shows the largest over prediction at Tehri rainfall station (62.5%) and largest under prediction at Nainital station (−36.5%). Physiographic zone wise, the least errors occur in the plains and the largest in the Great Himalayas. The spatial average rainfalls are 1,472 mm for Terai/Bhabar, 1,782 mm for the Shivalik ranges, 1,591 mm for the Lesser Himalayas and 1,635 mm for the Great Himalayan region. The mean areal rainfall in the region is 1,608 mm.

Spatial Distribution of Rainfall in Indian Himalayas – A Case Study of Uttarakhand Region

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Papers

Analysis of historical changes in rainfall in the Indian Himalayas

Understanding trends and shifts in rainfall in parts of northwestern India based on global climatic indices

Trend analysis and ARIMA modelling of pre-monsoon rainfall data for western India

Spatial Distribution of Rainfall in Indian Himalayas – A Case Study of Uttarakhand Region