The Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem, located in India and Bangladesh, is recognized as a global priority for biodiversity conservation and is an important provider of ecosystem services such as numerous goods and protection against storm surges. With global mean sea-level rise projected as up to 0.98 m or greater by 2100 relative to the baseline period (1985–2005), the Sundarbans – mean elevation presently approximately 2 m above mean sea-level – is under threat from inundation and subsequent wetland loss; however the magnitude of loss remains unclear. We used remote and field measurements, geographic information systems and simulation modelling to investigate the potential effects of three sea-level rise scenarios on the Sundarbans within coastal Bangladesh. We illustrate how the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is able to reproduce the observed area losses for the period 2000–2010. Using this calibrated model and assuming that mean sea-level is a better proxy than the SLAMM assumed mean lower low water for Mangrove area delineation, the estimated mangrove area net losses (relative to year 2000) are 81–178 km2, 111–376 km2 and 583–1393 km2 for relative sea-level rise scenarios to 2100 of 0.46 m, 0.75 m and 1.48 m, respectively and net subsidence of ±2.5 mm/year. These area losses are very small (<10 % of present day area) and significantly smaller than previous research has suggested. Our simulations also suggest that erosion rather than inundation may remain the dominant loss driver to 2100 under certain scenarios of sea-level rise and net subsidence. Only under the highest scenarios does inundation due to sea-level rise become the dominant loss process.

/pdf/projected-changes-in-area-of-the-sundarban-mangrove-forest-3jtqei4dpy.pdf

Projected changes in area of the Sundarban mangrove forest in Bangladesh due to SLR by 2100

Exportation of dissolved (inorganic and organic) and particulate carbon from mangroves and its implication to the carbon budget in the Indian Sundarbans.

The finite volume community ocean model (FVCOM) has been applied to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta in the northern part of the Bay of Bengal in order to simulate tidal hydrodynamics and freshwater flow in a complex river system. The delta region is data-poor in observations of both bathymetry and water level; making it a challenge for accurate hydrodynamic models be configured for and validated in this area. This is the first 3D baroclinic model covering the whole GBM delta from deep water beyond the shelf break to 250 km inland, the limit of tidal penetration.

This paper examines what controls tidal penetration from the open coast into an intricate system of river channels. A modelling approach is used to improve understanding of the hydrodynamics of the GBM delta system. Tidal penetration is controlled by a combination of bathymetry, channel geometry, bottom friction, and river flow. The simulated tides must be validated before this delta model is used further to investigate baroclinic processes, river salinity and future change in this area. The performance of FVCOM tidal model configuration is evaluated at a range of sites in order to assess its ability to capture water levels which vary over both a tidal and seasonal cycle.

FVCOM is seen to capture the leading tidal constituents well at coastal tide gauge stations, with small root-mean-squared errors of 10 cm on average. Inland, the model compares favourably with twice daily observed water levels at thirteen stations where it is able to capture both tidal and annual timescales in the estuarine system. When the river discharge is particularly strong, the tidal range can be reduced as the tide and river are in direct competition.

The bathymetry is found to be the most influential control on water levels within the delta, though tidal penetration can be significantly affected by the model's bottom roughness, and the inclusion of large river discharge. We discuss the generic problem of implementing a model in a data-poor region and the challenge of validating a hydrodynamic model from the open coast to narrow river channels.

Tidal intrusion within a mega delta: an unstructured grid modelling approach

Modeling cyclone-induced multi-hazard risk assessment using analytical hierarchical processing and GIS for coastal West Bengal, India

Unravelling the spatio-temporal variation of zooplankton community from the river Matla in the Sundarbans Estuarine System, India

Situated in the eastern coastal state of West Bengal, the Sundarbans Estuarine System (SES) is India’s largest monsoonal, macro-tidal delta-front estuarine system. It comprises the southernmost part of the Indian portion of the Ganga–Brahmaputra delta bordering the Bay of Bengal. The Sundarbans Estuarine Programme (SEP), conducted during 18–21 March 2011 (the Equinoctial Spring Phase), was the first comprehensive observational programme undertaken for the systematic monitoring of the tides within the SES. The 30 observation stations, spread over more than 3600 km2, covered the seven inner estuaries of the SES (the Saptamukhi, Thakuran, Matla, Bidya, Gomdi, Harinbhanga, and Raimangal) and represented a wide range of estuarine and environmental conditions. At all stations, tidal water levels (every 15 minutes), salinity, water and air temperatures (hourly) were measured over the six tidal cycles. We report the observed spatio-temporal variations of the tidal water level. The predominantly semi-diurnal tides were observed to amplify northwards along each estuary, with the highest amplification observed at Canning, situated about 98 km north of the seaface on the Matla. The first definite sign of decay of the tide was observed only at Sahebkhali on the Raimangal, 108 km north of the seaface. The degree and rates of amplification of the tide over the various estuarine stretches were not uniform and followed a complex pattern. A least-squares harmonic analysis of the data performed with eight constituent bands showed that the amplitude of the semi-diurnal band was an order of magnitude higher than that of the other bands and it doubled from mouth to head. The diurnal band showed no such amplification, but the amplitude of the 6-hourly and 4-hourly bands increased headward by a factor of over 4. Tide curves for several stations displayed a tendency for the formation of double peaks at both high water (HW) and low water (LW). One reason for these double-peaks was the HW/LW stands of the tide observed at these stations. During a stand, the water level changes imperceptibly around high tide and low tide. The existence of a stand at most locations is a key new finding of the SEP. We present an objective criterion for identifying if a stand occurs at a station and show that the water level changed imperceptibly over durations ranging from 30 minutes to 2 hours during the tidal stands in the SES. The tidal duration asymmetry observed at all stations was modified by the stand. Flow-dominant asymmetry was observed at most locations, with ebb-dominant asymmetry being observed at a few locations over some tidal cycles. The tidal asymmetry and stand have implications for human activity in the Sundarbans. The longer persistence of the high water level around high tide implies that a storm surge is more likely to coincide with the high tide, leading to a greater chance of destruction. Since the stands are associated with an amplification of the 4-hourly and 6-hourly constituents, storm surges that have a similar period are also likely to amplify more during their passage through the SES.

/pdf/tidal-variations-in-the-sundarbans-estuarine-system-india-4n3fufzhgd.pdf

Tidal variations in the Sundarbans Estuarine System, India

The Sundarbans Estuarine System (SES), comprising the southernmost part of the Indian portion of the Ganga-Brahmaputra delta bordering the Bay of Bengal, is India’s largest monsoonal, macro-tidal, delta-front estuarine system. The Sundarbans Estuarine Programme (SEP), covering six semi-diurnal tidal cycles during 18–21 March 2011 (the Equinoctial Spring Phase), was the first comprehensive observational programme in the SES. The 30 observation stations, spread over more than 3600 
 $$\hbox {km}^2$$
 , covered the seven inner estuaries of the SES: the Saptamukhi, Thakuran, Matla, Bidya, Gomdi, Harinbhanga, and Raimangal. At all stations or time-series locations (TSLs), the water level was measured every 15 min and water samples were collected every hour for estimating salinity. We report the observed spatio-temporal variations of salinity in this paper. The mean salinity over the six tidal cycles decreased upstream and the mean range of salinity over a tidal cycle increased upstream. In addition to this along-channel variation, the mean salinity also varied zonally across the SES. Salinity was lowest in the eastern SES, with the lowest value occurring at the TSLs on the Raimangal. Though higher than at the Raimangal TSLs, the mean salinity was also low at Mahendranagar, the westernmost TSL located on the West Gulley of the Saptamukhi. Salinity tended to be higher in the central part of the SES. CTD (conductivity–temperature–depth) measurements at three stations on the Matla show a well-mixed profile. Only the Raimangal has a freshwater source at its head. Therefore, the upstream decrease of salinity in the SES is likely to be the effect of the preceding summer monsoon, which would have freshened the estuary, and the ingress of salt from the seaward end due to the tide following the cessation of of the monsoon rains. The freshwater inflow from the Raimangal leads to the lowest salinities occurring in the eastern SES. The lower salinity in the western SES also suggests inflow from the Hoogly estuary, whose freshwater source is regulated via the Farakka Barrage. At 20 of the 30 TSLs, the salinity varied semi-diurnally, like the water level, and the maximum (minimum) salinity tended to occur at or around high (low) water. The temporal variation was more complex at the other 10 TSLs. Even at the TSLs at which a tidal stand exceeding 75 min was seen in the water level, the salinity oscillated with a semi-diurnal period. Thus, the salinity variation was unaffected by the stand of the tide that has been reported from the SES.

Variation of salinity in the Sundarbans Estuarine System during the Equinoctial Spring tidal phase of March 2011

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Tidal variations in the Sundarbans Estuarine System, India

Variation of salinity in the Sundarbans Estuarine System during the Equinoctial Spring tidal phase of March 2011