In the last two decades new emphasis has been given to the economic impact of geography, especially on the cost of being landlocked. From a development perspective, understanding the cost of being landlocked and its economic impact is critical, since one country of four in the world is landlocked (almost one out of three in Sub-Saharan Africa). Attempts to address the cost of being landlocked have mainly focused on regional and multilateral conventions aiming at ensuring freedom of transit, and on the development of regional transport infrastructure. The success of these measures has been limited, and many massive investments in infrastructure seem to have had a disappointing impact on landlocked economies. Although there may still be an infrastructure gap, this book, based on extensive data collection in several regions of the world, argues that logistics and trade services efficiency can be more important for landlocked countries than investing massively in infrastructure. Logistics have become increasingly complex and critical for firms' competitiveness, and a weakness in this field can badly hurt firms based in landlocked countries. This book proposes a revised approach to tackling the cost of being landlocked and a new analytical framework which uses a microeconomic approach to assess the trade and macroeconomic impacts of logistics. It takes into account recent findings on the importance of logistics chain uncertainty and inventory control in firms' performance. It argues that: (i) exporters and importers in landlocked developing countries face high logistics costs, which are highly detrimental to their competitiveness in world markets, (ii) high logistics costs depend on low logistics reliability and predictability, and (iii) low logistics reliability and predictability result mostly from rent-seeking and governance issues (prone to proliferate in low volume environments).

/pdf/the-cost-of-being-landlocked-logistics-costs-and-supply-34vjhdbp2l.pdf

The Cost of Being Landlocked : Logistics Costs and Supply Chain Reliability

The ‘new regionalism’ has spread to Central Asia; yet there has been little success in implementing most regional initiatives there. Security regionalism has had greater success than economic regionalism, even though economic initiatives would bring great benefits to the economy and population. I propose a connection between patrimonialism and regionalism. Central Asia's patrimonial leaders are driven by survival and personal enrichment, and are beholden to informal vested interests. Since economic regionalism involves liberalisation that adversely affects these actors, the result is ‘virtual’ economic regionalism at best. In the case of security regionalism, some regional organisations progress because they bolster patrimonial regimes, with negative consequences for democracy.

Economic and Security Regionalism among Patrimonial Authoritarian Regimes: The Case of Central Asia

Ruziev, Kobil, Dow, Sheila, and Ghosh, Dipak, 'The Uzbek puzzle revisited: An analysis of economic performance in Uzbekistan since 1991', Central Asian Survey (2007) 26(1) pp.7-30 Special Issue: Focus on Uzbekistan RAE2008

The Uzbek puzzle revisited: an analysis of economic performance in Uzbekistan since 1991

https://www.ebrd.com/downloads/research/economics/workingpapers/wp0095.pdf

Beyond borders: Reconsidering regional trade in Central Asia

This paper presents a coherent and systematic analysis of the collapse and subsequent revival of the Central Asian Republics (CARs) since 1990. The focus is on the pattern of growth and structural change during the cycle of decline and subsequent revival in the CARs, which have yet to be adequately analyzed in the literature on transition. The paper relates economic performance to initial conditions, country characteristics, and policies. Within this framework, it proposes a simple typology of policies (including a new "Type III" set of policies on regional cooperation and industrial competitiveness) and relates them to the cycle of decline and revival. It goes on to examine medium-term prospects and policy needs for the CARs.

Central Asia after Fifteen Years of Transition:Growth, Regional Cooperation, and Policy Choices

Central Asia's transport cost burden and its impact on trade

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Central Asia's transport cost burden and its impact on trade